The lights, the sounds, electricity in the air, a renewed sense of purpose… pure magic. Of course, I’m speaking of my draft; I guess Vegas was pretty cool too. Before I start my way too early predictions, I have to give Southy one more shout out for organizing a fantastic itinerary with a little bit for everyone. Another huge thank you to Kyle for a delicious dinner that went way above and beyond. Feel free to go with KFC next year to reset the bar for future dinner buyers.
Looking back to look ahead…. So I nailed the Championship bracket PERFECTLY. The shuffle of the Consolation bracket boiled down to the injury luck and my eternal modesty (I think we all knew I wasn’t coming in last with my sweet draft last year). Finken’s run was both epic and impressive on many levels. Personally, I’m glad that the Julio trade paid off with a ‘ship. Abel breaking into the championship bracket was a win for the whole league; welcome to the club, buddy. And while I couldn’t have foreseen the CMC injury, Kyle’s last place finish could’ve been predicted based on the rest of that roster.
|
Position |
Predicted |
Actual |
|
1 |
Aaron |
Aaron |
|
2 |
Southy |
Southy |
|
3 |
Mitch |
Mitch |
|
4 |
Abel |
Abel |
|
5 |
Kyle |
Chris |
|
6 |
Seth |
Riley |
|
7 |
Riley |
Seth |
|
8 |
Chris |
Kyle |
You guys should really listen to me.
Now, your 2021 predictions...
Definitely not “Who Cares Territory”
#8 Off Suit 10’s -
In fairness to Kyle, he wisely tore this one down to the
studs. Everything that was worth anything hit the trade block, including
this year’s 1st rounders. While I initially questioned punting everything
to next year, his draft positions left him a RB and some WRs he didn’t
particularly like. I get not starting a rebuild with those players.
It seems like he has a plan, which should terrify anyone who’s been his partner
after a 4 bid. It will be interesting to see how quickly he can construct
a contender after 2022.
Strengths
Kyle has a great head of hair, a lovely family, and strong
Winterset roots. In terms of fake football teams, I think Kyle might be
more interested in the second fantasy league this year than he has been the
past few years. Clearly he has amassed some prime draft capital for next
year. If he can parley some of those picks into some young players to
jump start the process, he might outpace the dreaded “half decade of
irrelevance”. If there are 2 things you can count on Kyle for, it’s
probably parleys and trades.
Weaknesses
Strip clubs and the fact that he has to set a starting
lineup each week. Also, the likelihood of winning any weekly payouts.
Kyle’s win total in both categories for 2021- O/U .5
Wild Cards
Rondale Moore has the early breakout production in college
that had him as the projected 1.1 a few years back. If he can return to
2018 form and avoid being folded up like a lawn chair, he could develop into a
regular starter in a high scoring offense. Christian Kirk needs to take the
year 3 jump into WR relevance. He has had some flashes but needs to put it
all together. Downside: both play in the same offense where half the
targets go to Nuke anyway so it is unlikely both will break out.
Kyle’s most intriguing position is probably QB. Hurts is the definition of a wildcard, immense rushing upside but everything else is a huge question mark. In a somewhat curious trade, Kyle acquired Baker from Finken; his finish to the 2020 season gives some hope that he might be a solid QB for the foreseeable future.
** Disclaimer, while I’m separating the remaining teams into
3 Tiers, this is probably the most competitive field we’ve had in years.
Tier 3
#7 Ah, It’s Early –
Well, well, well…. A few weeks ago, Seth had (probably) one
viable starting running back on his roster. After a little draft magic,
he has seemingly rebuilt his RB stable with youth and talent. The great
decider harnessed his inner Kyle and made the first two big trades of the
draft. Essentially trading away Sutton and two 2nds to get Etiene,
Edmonds, Mooney and a handful of dart throws. I’m pronouncing Seth the
winner of the draft and should celebrate by fornicating with my sister.
At this rate, he may reclaim his 5th place throne in no time.
Strengths
Spidermaning up rock walls and picking awesome inlaws.
On the fantasy front, AIE has the best starting QB duo in the league; his young
gunslingers should give him a 10-20 point positional advantage most every
week. Post trades, the RB weakness has the potential to become a
strength. Pairing the projected workhorse output of Akers and Harris with
the PPR upside of Etiene and Edmonds should form a solid point floor each week
Weaknesses
TE remains thinner than his neckbeard. AIE is counting
on a breakout from Firkser, Hooper, or Shultz (or an improbable Gronk
run). Without that, he will likely be giving up whatever QB edge he built
back to any of the playoff teams at the TE position.
Additionally, depth is a concern (his fantasy team also has
few backups to utilize). Come bye weeks, AIE will be counting on Robby
Anderson, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, or AJ Dillon to fill in. Any
injuries to skill players will make it difficult to compete week in and week
out.
Wild Cards
Waddle, Marshall, and Mooney provide some intriguing
upside. While it is hard to predict any of them jumping into relevant
roles this year, they are some nice lottery tickets. If DHop is on the roster
after the trade deadline, there is a good chance AIW is still in the playoff
hunt.
Seth looking at his roster post-draft.
#6 Smells Low –
This roster is an interesting one. While Riley was
probably one of the most QB needy teams, he was left without a rookie QB after
passing over several opportunities to snag one. He’s banking on a Wentz
reboot, Jimmy to hold on against Lance or Taysom winning the job in New Orleans
to solidify his QB2 job and give him a sniff at the playoffs.
Strengths
Can convince women that sleeping in the back of a pickup is
closer to tiny house life than homelessness. Additionally, Riley is a
fantastic Beta (I think I’m using that right) and really nose how to use those
fancy rock wall ballet shoes. His fake sportsing strength is RB Depth;
while I don’t particularly see a guaranteed RB1 on this roster, Smells Low
should have options when it comes to setting his lineup. With some
pairing of early season work (Gaskin) and late season relevance (Williams),
Riley should be able to fill his starting lineup with consistent (if not game
breaking) RB scores. Kittle won the tiebreaker for this tier. Having a
top 4 TE (ask me who the other 3 are…) when healthy is huge for Smells Low’s
playoff hopes.
Weaknesses
Irregular showers and the end of mask mandates to cover his
nose. As for Smells Low, WR will likely be the achilles heel of this
roster. Trading away Ridley last offseason has really limited his options
in the passing game. While ScaryTerry will likely eat, Godwin, Higgins,
and Boyd look more like table scraps playing second (or third) fiddle in
crowded offenses. This inconsistency will likely lead to some boom or
bust weeks. My money is on more busts than he found at the Rhino.
As mentioned before, QB2 is still up in the air. I think the best shot is
for Wentz to regain his MVP form now that he is reunited with Reich (also, that
would really help my Pittman and Campbell stonks).
Wild Cards
If Shenault, Bateman, or Mostert can earn weekly startworthy
status, Riley may have something here. Talk out of camps on Shenault and
Bateman are positive. Mostert was a monster in the 49ers run game when
healthy but many have already written the veteran RB off as they make way for
Sermon.
Tier 2
#5 Play It Backwards
My how the turntables have turned. Mitch’s window
seems to be shrinking. PIB is hoping that Brady can keep it propped open and
hold back father time just long enough for either Fields or Tua to establish
themselves in the fantasy world. Truth be told, Mitch has a championship
caliber roster based on name recognition but (literally) every name in his
starting lineup has more question marks than his students after he explains
integers. Adams needs Rodgers to come back and the Saints offense needs
to find an answer at QB that doesn’t tank the value of Kamara or Thomas (or
both).
Strengths
Capable of growing an impressive Covid beard and running
teenage RBs into the ground. As for pretend dynasty leagues, PIB has a
well balanced roster and is built to withstand some injuries to either the RB
or WR corp if they arise. Kamara and Adams* still feel like they have
week-winning potential but Dobbins and/or Gibson will need to build on last
season’s promising start to make PIB a real contender.
Weaknesses
Driving and saying no to equestrian endeavors. From a
team standpoint, the WR star power from 2 seasons ago has dimmed while DJ Moore
is still hoping to make that jump to elite status. What keeps PIB on the
lower rung of competitive status is the lack of an elite TE. Outside of
the #StatCorrectionChamp, no league winner has done so without elite TE
production. But seriously….driving.
Wild Cards
PIB desperately needs Irv Smith to make the leap this year;
rolling out Hunter Henry each week is going to be more problematic than Finken
passing a drug test. Can Antonio Brown continue on the 18.5 PPG pace he
set over the last 6 regular season games (against weak defenses) or will he be
the 9.3 PPG guy he was in the playoffs against better competition?
Lastly, the effectiveness of the Saints offense will go a long way to determine
the fate of PIB this year. For Mitch’s sake, Winston better win the job
outright in training camp.
#4 If We’re Using Logic
While some might argue that this prediction is a year premature,
IWUL challenged for a playoff spot last year with some untimely injuries and
suspensions **cough**Will Fuller**cough** that derailed his chances late.
The Best Draft Ever ™ led to an electric rookie season for some key
contributors. Most experts project better production in their 2nd
year. With modest growth and early contributions from the 2021 class,
this roster looks young and hungrier than Abel passing a Chick-fil-a at 2am.
Strengths
Offering fair and mutually beneficial trade offers to leaguemates
and drafting like a boss. As for the roster, it’s littered with young
talent with incredible upside. Taylor looks to take hold as the workhorse
back in Indy while Swift and CEH offer game winning PPR potential from the RB
slot. Hunt and Carter should be nice depth and bye week fillers with
league winning talent if they find themselves with primary backfield duty.
Weaknesses
Insufferable modesty and a lack of dynasty research/family
life balance (also rock climbing apparently). As for IWUL, the only real
weakness here is the unproven talent. A hot start last year made roster
decisions easy but finding the right lineup combo was more difficult the second
half of the season. Knowing which player will pop off each week is harder
than deciphering the 7th grade defenses I’m used to facing.
Wild Cards
With Pittman, Williams, Campbell, and Hardman are primed for
breakout seasons. If 1-2 of them can develop into consistent weapons,
this is a roster the #1 seed should be scared to pick come playoff time.
A Sophomore Slump or Sophomore Jump will likely determine the fate of this
team. Or in Mike Williams cace, a super-senior jump.
As I've told all of you, pretty self-explanatory.
Tier 1
#3 Rolling Four Deep
Congrats to our reigning champ and the second league member
to reach the 2 ‘Ship status (although not back to back...just sayin’).
R4D rolled through the playoffs like Husker fans roll through Scott Frost
rationalizations. Fink’s roster is more than top heavy enough to repeat
but we are starting to see some cracks in the armor as his key players age
without young talent to backfill. For the picks R4D held in the draft, I
think he made the most of it. Drafting Fitz and some key backup RB’s was clutch
as counting on Jeff Wilson and Pollard to win playoff games might not work
twice. On the flip side, I would question paying up for a luxury pick in
DeVonta Smith when QB and RB depth are much more serious concerns.
Strengths
Immense willpower in a city where literally everything is
legal and being trustworthy enough to be everyone’s emergency contact. As for
owning pretend NFL players, his roster is littered with game winners and he has
plenty of WR depth. If Rodgers returns to GB and everyone can kiss and make up,
he has positional advantages at QB and TE most weeks as well if Gruden keeps
feeding Waller.
Weaknesses
Bidding when he is my pitch partner and insisting on being
Mitch’s big spoon. As for R4D, RB depth is sketchy at best. I think
for most fantasy players, Saquon and Zek have lost a little luster over the
past year. To reach the top of the mountain again, Sermon needs to take
hold in SF and Rodgers needs to repeat 2020 on the field and not on Jeopardy.
Wild Cards
Is there enough passing volume in Tenn for AJ and Julio to
thrive? With few other pass catchers, I would guess that one is a top 10
WR while the other is top 15. If Derrick Henry gets 300 touches again and
the 2 WR cannibalize (*not canibus) each other, it could be tough to have both
in the starting lineup each week.
 |
| Wait, Finken took another WR after trading away Mayfield?!?! |
#2 I’m Out
Cue the Manilow, “Looks like we made it...” With the acquisition of CMC, I’m Out brings a scary RB
duo to the table each week. Assuming CMC returns to his 30+ point per week
form, I’m Out can stand toe to toe with anyone in the league. With some other
holes to fill, being active on the waiver wire will be essential to not
squander the assets he has amassed.
Strengths
Unnecessarily picking up tabs and taking blackjack coaching
from dealers, friends, and strangers. From a roster construction standpoint,
the addition of elderly receivers like OBJ, Theilan, and Keenan Allen to pair
with nice drafts of Metcalf and Claypool have really formed a solid starting
lineup. Spending big draft capital on Henry and CMC would likely not have been
enough without these pieces.
Weaknesses
Still lacks basic understanding of FAAB usage, long walks on
the strip, and holding in his breakfast on the way to the airport. Although
this roster is a strong contender, the QB slots (plural) are a big concern.
Lawrence needs to become Herbert 2.0 in his first season and Winston’s Lasik
surgery needs to earn him the job in NO. Lack of depth will make the bye
weeks and injuries problematic. It will take a clean run and at least mediocre
QB play to compete.
**Seriously though, waiver wire
Wild Cards
If Henry can stand up to the pounding of another 300+ touch
season, IO should be fine. If he breaks down, there is trouble on the horizon.
Ertz eventually leaving Philly to make room for Goedert, an OBJ renaissance and
a nice Damien Harris breakout would go a long way to make this an easier
championship run. We all know that anything can happen once you are in the
playoffs; avoiding Southy the first round will be key (and again, utilizing the
waiver wire)
 |
| Abel always said, give him almost a decade and he'll compete. |
#1 – F It 3
F It 3 definitely rolled over the rest of the league last
season. Unfortunately, the roster picked the worst time to have a so-so week
(by Southy standards) and failed to complete the elusive back to back
championship run. Although he didn’t have a pick higher than a 3rd rounder
leading up to the draft, he was able to jump in front of Fink to grab Zach
Wilson and Mac Jones (both of which are now certainly bound for NFL stardom)
and walked away with my second favorite receiver in this draft (Elijah Moore).
Overall, good sneaking out of our favorite serial killer.
Strengths
Having deep enough pockets to just double his bets until he
wins and planning awesome destination trips from 1700 miles away (by running 6
scouting missions in the past year). FI3 has the most players who can win any
given week and some up-and-comers in the wings. With a good balance of
established and young talent, Garrett has truly crafted a dynasty team
**cough**jinx**cough**.
Weaknesses
Splitting 6’s vs a face card and inviting much less capable
climbers to share his adventures. FI3 does run into some potential problems
with his last Flex spot and bye week depth. Southy is banking on Hockenson to
be his second starting TE or James Robinson to hold similar value in that spot.
Wild Cards
I’m sure Southy’s people are talking with the NFL about
Desean Watson’s future (just like they did when Tyreek avoided suspension). If
he is fully reinstated and lands in the right spot (Dear God, not Denver) that
could seal the deal on a title run. Similarly a Jeudy or Moore breakout could
fill the bye weeks nicely.
South laughing at the rest of us and our roster issues.
Just for fun, here is roster construction if you utilized
current ADP for our league. Good luck Kyle...
|
# Players in Each Round by ADP |
Kyle |
Seth |
Riley |
Mitch |
Chris |
Aaron |
Jared |
Garrett |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
5 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
|
6 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
8 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
|
9 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
10 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
11 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
13 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
14 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
|
15 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
