Boys and Girls of All Ages,
As we log another great draft weekend into the books, it is time to make my “stone cold lock of the year final predictions” for the upcoming season. Typically this is the part where we would look back on last year’s results and marvel at the accuracy and vision that came with the preseason predictions. Due to some slumlord commitments, those predictions never came. I’d prefer to see this as a glass-half-full scenario so I’m declaring last year as my most accurate prediction as I had zero incorrect rankings but probably added another title to my tally.
Recapping the offseason, a fair number of blockbuster trades foreshadowed the trade extravaganza that was the ‘24 draft. Mitch and Kyle started the action with the “trade heard round the world” that reset the dynasty QB market and made the contender/rebuild intentions known to the league. While there has been much head-scratching around this trade; Kyle’s crazy-like-a-fox approach puts the league on notice that he is serious about being a contender this season. On the coattails of this trade, Chris sends a (editor’s note: alleged) top 6 QB from last season (Purdy) to Riley for what can only be described as a bag of magic beans. I believe that time will tell us both teams are better off for this trade. Similarly, Abel began his rebuild and ignited the race to the bottom with Mitch by trading the first cornerstone piece (Derrick Henry) to Chris in a desperate attempt to acquire RB depth on his roster.
Draft Day: With zero research or data to support this conclusion; I’m declaring the ‘24 draft the best/most active draft to date. As the dust settled from all the wheeling and dealing, 15 trades before or during the draft were completed as teams jockeyed for position to snag their guys from a deep and polarizing draft class. Top-tier talent and premium picks get moved to new teams as we see the 1.3, 1.4, Kelce, DeVonta Smith, Davonte Adams, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, Hockenson, Higgins, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hopkins, and multiple future firsts change hands that weekend. Mitch’s firesale was a success with only a few elder RBs left on the rack and Abel offloaded 2nd tier talent and collected additional 1st round picks in 2025. It was an eventful few hours.
Now, let’s dig in and see which teams came out ahead after all the wheeling and dealing. I attached my very secretive and scientific mathematical algorithm that spit out a patent-pending Power Ranking score for each team. That makes these predictions iron-clad and guaranteed. Deal with it.
TIER 3 - REBUILD MODE
Two teams have entered the race to the bottom this season. Both rosters saw their contending windows close at the end of last season (if they were open at all…) and have wisely turned their eye to the future.
#8 Play It Backwards - Power Ranking 42
Trade/Draft Grade: A+
Along with his wife’s horses, Mitch has been trying to pawn off his has-been superstars for months. With a number of expiring assets on the edge of the fantasy cliff, Mitch wisely decided to take the plunge into a deep rebuild. With the patience of a master chicken smoker, he patiently waited until draft day to maximize value and leverage.
It’s hard to find a trade that Mitch didn’t “win” as he stockpiled multiple 1st round picks for the next three seasons, mainly from Lehman. Now he has the capital to gather young players in the draft or buy some big names. Acquiring Tee Higgins and Jamo to jumpstart his WR room and drafting Caleb Williams and Bowers as cornerstones give him a solid foundation for a quick turnaround. For now, he is winning the race for 1.1 next year.
Roster Analysis
Woof… they say you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet. Right now, all the ingredients for his next championship are in the fridge (aka seniors in high school) and he is looking to have some egg on his face this upcoming season. Williams, Maye, and Levis are promising but VERY unproven QBs on potentially bad teams with unproven coaches. Given that most 1st round quarterbacks are misses, his work at QB might not be done. (Disclaimer: Not official ranking committee analysis, but it’s fun to drag on Mitch’s plans.) Moore and Higgins are currently in situations that cap them from becoming elite WRs, but their situations may improve by the time Mitch is ready to compete.. His two starting RBs graduated college with me and he currently projects to start Jamo, Rico, and Antonio Gibson as his FLEX at full strength. My crystal ball projects more weeks flirting with the 100 point threshold than wins on the season.
Wild Cards
The Justin Fields reclamation project in Pittsburg has some promise; maybe scoring kick return yards next year will make him relevant again. I like the Javon Baker draft pick as a sleeper but asking a NE WR to breakout in a crowded receiver room with a rookie QB is a tall order. Rico has the opportunity (not sure about the talent) to become a thing in Dallas. None of which are getting him out of providing either food or drinks at the draft next year. Now if we can just get him to show up on time for a change.
#7 I’m Out - Power Ranking 47
Trade/Draft Grade: C+
I like the moves to unload Metcalf, Henry, and Kelce and I think Abel got slight overpays on most of those trades. The handful of lottery ticket players like Charbonet, Wan’Dale, and Hyatt should have a little extra runway with the expanded 30-man rosters.
Acquiring draft capital is one thing, making draft picks is another. With a roster in need of everything, Much like apparently the rest of the NFL, I think the McCarthy pick was a reach when there were some high upside WR available at 1.8. I like the Roman Willson and Ben Sinnott picks a LOT. Giving up an extra 3rd to move up one spot and grab Legette was an overpay but sometimes we do what we gotta do to get our guy (right Riley?).
Moving forward, I’m Out needs to carry the “trade fever” (except for Trevor Lawrence) from the weekend into the regular season and discover the waiver wire. Seriously Abel, this is the year to make it happen. The entire league is rooting for him to reshape this roster and bring back Playoff Abel ASAP. Don’t be afraid to ask for help/advice to move those last few pieces. It would be a mistake if Cousins, Carr, Keenan Allen, and Josh Jacobs were still on this roster at the end of the season.
Roster Analysis
The expression “Good is the enemy of great” applies here. I’m Out is good at QB, WR, and TE but truly lacks the top tier players that can win matchups by themselves on any given week. There are a lot of consistent players but all cap out in the mid tier of scorers. Practicing with Tinder could be a good intro into scanning the waiver wire for potential studs. Put that time in Abel.
Wild Cards
McCarthy is surrounded by talent and has a competent coach as he enters the NFL. I think his range falls between a poor man’s Purdy as a game manager in a good offense and the efficient ceiling of Goff with some mobility. I also like the acquisition of Charbonet; hoping a new coaching staff will realize he is actually the better RB in Seattle. Addison flashed his potential last season and took full advantage of JJetta missing time. Unfortunately, he will forever be the Robin to Jefferson’s Batman in this offense. Lastly, Legette has a wide range of outcomes. His one-hit-wonder of college production earned him round 1 draft capital but he enters a struggling offense as the #2 WR at best. An improved #1 overall pick Bryce Young should deliver a better season in Carolina but I’m not sure how much of that small pie will go his way.
TIER 2 - THE MUDDY MIDDLE
This tier holds four teams fighting it out for two playoff spots. All four teams had some pretty drastic makeovers on draft weekend as they jockeyed for position in the arms race to catch teams 1 and 2 in our rankings. Honestly, all four teams were within a few points in my Power Rankings analysis; injuries and a little breakout luck will probably be the final factors in sorting this group.
#6 Off Suit 10’s – Power Ranking 74
Trade/Draft Grade: C-
Hold on, I really have to prepare myself mentally for what I’m about to say. (clears throat) I really like what Kyle has done over the past few seasons to rebuild this roster. I think he is way farther ahead of where I expected at this point. Stroud, Bijan, LaPorta, and McBride had put him in a great position to make the leap to the next level. Ugh, that didn’t feel great.
Unfortunately, I think OS10s dove for the proverbial goalline from midfield. Going all in to acquire Kyler to complete the Harrison stack made sense to me. Overpaying for a bench QB in Tua that doesn’t have a contract and one year of (hopefully) renaissance Kamara was a bit of a head scratcher given his roster construction.
If this was any other team, I’d be worried that OS10s has no 1st or 2nd round picks for the next 3 years and that the rebuild might be perpetually stuck in neutral moving forward. Fortunately, Kyle’s RV-slinging approach and active trading will surely make for some fun, some head-scratching chess moves.
Despite numerous amazing offers for the #1 pick, getting the best prospect in Harrison makes this a successful draft, regardless of what else happens. I think he got some interesting WR dart throws in the mid rounds with the law firm of Mitchell, Polk & Corley. If one of those develops into a solid fantasy WR2, he may be in good shape to hit his quarterly RV quota.
Roster Analysis
Reloaded with star power, the starting 10 can go toe-to-toe with any roster in the league. I think everyone is anticipating London, Bijan, and Harrison to have breakout seasons to propel this team into contention. I like the potential of JSN but he may be one year away with Lockett still demanding a portion of the pie and the talk of Metcalf being moved around (aka taking slot snaps). My biggest concern is depth when it comes to injuries and bye weeks. Having to start 2 TEs is not always a recipe for success even if they are the top two TEs and the drop in talent is significant after the starting roster. He’s going to have to rely heavily on his heavily invested QB depth to carry him should injuries arise. Maybe Sleeper will give Kyler a RB designation this season.
Wild Cards
The wildcards will undoubtedly determine the fate of this roster. White (new OC), Kamara (age), Chubb (injury), Deebo (consistency), and the sophomore slump/step up for JSN and Stroud leave a lot of question marks.
His team will be much like his 4 bids, more than likely he’s missing his partner helper and this team’s out of the playoffs. But sometimes, things line up and his partner’s Jack and Deuce fall making this team a dark horse for the finals.
#5 Smells Low - Power Ranking 76
Trade/Draft Grade: B-
I love the addition of Purdy this offseason thru such a generous and fair trade offer; a young, productive QB tied to an amazing offense should be a great investment. We’ll know in a year if he was worth McConkey and Corum and whoever Lansink lands in the 1st round next year.
As for the draft day trade with Mitch, I think he gave up the two best assets in the trade (Higgins/’26 1st) for an aging Adams and injured Hock (Tuah!). Admittedly, those guys are studs; just not “my guys” as I put on my Mel Kiper wig. I may be eating my words in a playoff matchup if I’m wrong.
With only four picks in the actual draft itself, Riley showed us he has a type by selecting a couple of skinny fast guys in rounds 2 and 3. As a Chiefs fan, I love the prospect of Worthy for my fantasy of the Chiefs threepeating but don’t love his situation for actual fantasy football. There are a lot of mouths to feed in KC and all have similar skillsets. Since Tyreek left, Mahomes has yet to lean on a guy to be the true #1… mostly he just throws to the open guy who’s dating the billionaire popstar rather than force-feeding volume to outside WRs. I’m more than happy that he let Ladd fall to me one pick later.
Like Riley at an orgy, Franklin has quick bust written all over him in my opinion. From predraft analysis to his fall in the NFL draft, it seems like everyone but Riley is out on this “go deep” prospect. The only saving grace might be that his college QB will be throwing him the ball. But who knows, Riley could’ve used that nose to sniff out some value when no one else could. That said, Riley may have prayed to the Sun God once again and made the right call, as he did with Amon Ra a few years ago.
Roster Analysis
Everything I said about Off Suit 10s roster can be ditto’d here. I love the starting 10 but can’t feel great about McLaurin, Jayden Reed, or Courtland Sutton coming off the bench on bye weeks. Kmet filling in as the starting TE until Hock is back to 100% also means he enters most weeks behind in the TE matchup. The Sun God and Breece are great anchors with week-winning upside but as Riley’s found out, penis pumps he traded three cock rings in for don’t provide the same kind of quality depth that solid drafting does.
Wild Cards
Does the addition of Saquon and the loss of Kelce spell the end of the tush push? Does Hurts return to the mediocre passing QB with limited upside that he was drafted to be? Does Davante still see 80% target share with the addition of an actual receiving threat in Bowers? Can Achane get more touches to test his workload/efficiency or does he remain a situational weapon in the offense? I’m taking the under on all of those bets AND I think Walker and James Cook take a small step back with their handcuffs taking some of the more valuable touches away. On the bright side, I think Jaylen Warren is the more talented back in Pittsburg and I think the coaches know it as well.
Bottom line, I think Riley is in it until his date sees the rapist van thus falling just short of making a playoff run.
#4 Ah. It’s Early - Power Score 79
Trade/Draft Grade: B-
I understand the Smith/Odunze trade but much like Seth joining my family, I just don’t like it. Smith is a great WR but is now locked in to the #2 role in Philly for a long time with a mediocre passing QB. I like the upside of Odunze paired with Caleb for the next 8-10 years. That said, I understand that Smith is better for higher scoring right now, and we all know Seth is all about more scoring. (Boo that Finken joke)
And just like with my sister, Seth goes all in to get Kelce and propel himself back into the contender conversation. Before that trade, I had Seth pegged as the #6 team heading into the season. I dinged the draft grade a bit for the Montgomery trade (another win now move) as I think Southy won on that one. With the limited draft capital left, Seth did a nice job with what he had. Coleman has an empty net to step into the lead role in BUF. Bucky and Audric walk into ambiguous RB situations where they control their destiny and can take the RB 1 spot by year end.
Roster Analysis
Unlike his neckbeard, AIE is solid across the board. His QB room is 2nd best in the league and he has 8 WRs with great floors and unrealized ceilings. Etienne and Rhamondre have room to level up this season with Montgomery and Harris providing quality depth and weekly fill in options. A healthy Kelce puts this team on his back and carries them into the playoffs by himself. I love the depth but would need to see one or two players join the elite week winning category to really move this team into the elite tier.
Wild Cards
Can Garrett Wilson actually become the fantasy stud we believe he is or will he always be a talented player wasted on bad QBs? Do we get 2022 Waddle or 2023 Waddle? Does Pickens take the opportunity to be a solid WR1 for his team or will he melt down when Arthur Smith turns him into Kyle Pitts? Do the Chiefs save Kelce again all season for the playoffs to make sure he’s healthy? As we found out, his QBs can only carry him so far.
#3 Rolling 4 Deep– Power Ranking 83
Trade/Draft Grade: A+
Despite failing at most competitions and the constant haze around him at the draft, I think Finken snagged the best draft class this year. As I put back on my Mel Kiper wig, he walked away with my #3 and #5 WR, the #2 QB and my #2 and #3 RB. He also stole my favorite late WR prospect in Jermain Burton. I think this draft class clearly puts him in the top tier for 2025 and beyond.
In a short-term hit to the roster, R4D traded away Devonta Smith to diversify his Iggles exposure. I loved his move to add Kupp to replace that production this season while he waits for his solid prospects to grow into their roles by the time the playoffs roll around.
Roster Analysis
I love the constantly high floor for Brown, Olave, Evans, and a healthy Kupp. I think Gibbs and Barkley make a tough 1-2 punch at the RB slots and give a weekly positional advantage over most of the league. This team is built for depth and can withstand some injuries and bye weeks without much of a drop-off.
Wild Cards
Much has been made about the Chargers run-first offense and how it may impact Herbert’s stats. I think the lack of receivers will be the bigger hit and Herbert falls from his top 6 status to more of a QB 12 type. Love, Daniels, and Rodgers should make great streaming options to choose from each week. I think Kincaid is the new WR1 in Buffalo and enters the Dynasty TE1 conversation as Allen’s new go-to guy. If Kupp and Evans are anywhere near their recent production and aren’t searching for retirement communities with me, this team punches its playoff ticket early again this season.
TIER 1 - ELITE COMPANY
#2 If We’re Using Logic - Power Score 92
Full disclosure, my patent-pending algorithm actually had my team slightly ahead of Southy. Looking at the rosters side by side (and the perpetual promise of a good jinx), I just couldn’t move my squad above the returning champ… mad respect, Southy but that 17th title will be mine…
Trade/Draft Grade: A
Heading into the playoffs last season, this team had a glaring weakness at RB. This weakness (and Puka coming up 2 yards short of the endzone) proved to be the nail in the coffin on dreams of another championship run.
Determined to address the issue, IWUL made an aggressive play for Derrick Henry and took the top RB in the draft in Brooks. Corum wasn’t a draft target but simply fell too far to pass up and Kimani Vidal is an interesting sleeper candidate in a muddled backfield.
Nabers has superstar upside and all the buzz around McConkey adds two amazing WR prospects to what was already the best WR room in the league. The only regrets from the draft were a potential missed opportunity in the 3rd round to move up and snag Lloyd and Burton from Finken. Otherwise, this draft was knocked out of the park unlike anything seen since my 2020 Greatest Draft Ever™.
Roster Analysis
Respectfully and humbly, I would argue that IWUL boasts the best QB and WR rooms in the league and it’s not even close. The high upside of the 2 best running QBs paired with the great floors of Stafford and Burrow help mitigate injury issues. While most teams have 2-3 top 20 dynasty receivers, IWUL has 7. This gives top-end flex matchup options every week. Two reliable RBs mixed with some young potential give much-needed balance to the roster. 3 good to great TE options each week provide matchup streaming options as well.
Wild Cards
While this team has some wild card questions to be answered, I think that most of them can only blow the top off an already explosive roster. Is this the year Kyle Pitts fulfills the prophecy? Does Richardson really break fantasy at the QB position? Is Brooks healthy sooner or later and will he get all the checkdown passing that White did in TB? Will Nabers break into the elite tier with Daniel Jones as his QB?
On the other side of the coin, can Puka and Nico build on their breakout seasons and remain the elite WR options or will they come back down to Earth with Diggs and Kupp gobbling up targets? Will the Colts offense actually be any good? Can Josh Allen really do it all on his own? Will Ceedee and Chase cause chaos if they don’t get the contract they want? Can Burrow and Stafford actually stay on the field for a change? I’m going to stick with my initial evaluations and ignore all these questions. Much easier living in Never Never Land.
#1 – F It 3 - Power Ranking 95
Trade/Draft Grade: B-
Southy wheeled and dealed with limited ammunition this past weekend. Moving up to snag a falling Pearsall was an interesting move. I don’t think anyone denies his talent but starting the season at age 24 behind four established receiving threats might delay his useful fantasy window. Love the player, hate the situation. That is until Aiyuk gets traded and Deebo gets hurt because, you know, Southy.
In another interesting move, South purchased Metcalf for a future 1st. Much like brown liquor, I’ve always had a love/hate relationship with Metcal. He is more boom/bust than I like but he always ends the season as a top 20 WR. I see this continuing for 2-4 more seasons so it’s probably a smart play.
Fun draft fact #1: Southy has made one 1st round pick (Jerry Jeudy) since the 2018 draft and does not have 1st next year.
Fun draft fact #2: Southy made three 1st round picks in the 2018 draft (Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel). I guess I can see why he doesn’t value 1st round picks. Might want to add that to your list of items to discuss with your therapist.
Overall, I like his use of mid-round picks. I think Nix could be the 3rd best QB in this draft. McMillan outperformed Odunze in Washington in 2022 before an injury-riddled 2023 and CMC’s brother is probably going to gym-rat himself into relevance at some point. Tyrone Tracy was on my draft board. With some Southy pixy dust, the 24.5 year old 5th round draft pick who recently changed positions could actually find a role as the passing down back in NY.
Roster Analysis
When you roster three of the top four redraft picks (CMC, Tyreeeeek, JJ) it is hard to bet against you. Side by side each of the top-tier rosters has star power and depth. I gave FI3 the edge due to McCaffery operating as a RB1 + WR1 combined and the more established depth pieces on his roster.
A healthy Mark Andrew is still a top 2 TE. I think he returns and puts these young upstart TE pups back in their place. Tyreek is gonna Tyreek and Lamar is always dangerous as one of the few legit QBs who can beat you with his legs or his arm.
I think Pacheco earned the pass catching work in KC last year and will be one of the better all around backs this year (should have given that 1st rounder a few years back). Acquiring Metcalf was big in WR arms race and honestly won the leapfrog battle back over IWUL.
Wild Cards
Unlike IWUL, most of the wild card questions here are probably going to downgrade from expectations.
Is Deshaun really washed (um…yeah)? Did Kyren have his 5 minutes of fame or do the Rams really believe in him (drafting round 3 RB says maybe not?)? Is McCarthy good enough to support Jefferson and the Vikings offense like King Kirk could? Does Aiyuk get moved or does he stay and get a slightly smaller piece of the pie with Pearsall in town? What is left in the tank for Diggs, Mixon, Hopkins and Kittle? The cracks are starting to show and this could be the beginning of the end for South’s reign over CNK.
BONUS ANALYSIS:
As part of my trademarked and patent-pending super-secret algorithm, I use current redraft rankings to determine the consensus value of players on each roster. Below is the chart showing how many players each roster would have in each round.
