Rank 2018 Prediction 2018 Actual Finish
#8 I’m Out I’m Out
#7 Smells Low Smells Low
#6 Ah It’s Early Ah It’s Early
#5 If We’re Using Logic Play It Backwards
#4 Rollin’ 4 Deep If We’re Using Logic
#3 Off Suit 10s Off Suit 10s
#2 Fuck It Three Fuck It Three
#1 Play It Backwards Rollin’ 4 Deep
Review – Verbatim from last year’s projections: “Finken shared Seth’s 2015 fate; will he share Seth’s 2016 glory with a Championship this season. Spoiler Alert: He won’t.”
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| #StatCorrectionChamp |
Overall, Chris did pretty well on his projections, so we have to give him props. He was especially correct predicting that his own team would miss the playoffs as he should have instead of finishing with the best record and the 6th highest point total. This was all made well in the world when the NFL made the right call and reversed to egregious fumble call against Zeke and propelled Finken to his first title. Chris undervalued how good Lehman’s team would perform, dominating the points scored and posting 5 games +200 points. However, he correctly saw how Southy would once again finish as a bridesmaid.
Looking forward – On the other hand, South had a huge victory after spending millions in taxpayer money to lobby against kickers and defenses. They were voted out like Cesaer at card night and a 2nd WR and RB slot were added which adds a new dimension, especially as the season wears on and byes and injuries start to happen.
Another seismic shift to our league was adding 3 redshirt spots, allowing people to squirrel-away 3 additional rookies for the future. It also makes the later round draft picks a bit more valuable as they now might not just be waiver wire fodder starting week 1. But enough of this, you all wanted some baseless projection and draft grade. Ask....
2019 Projections
#8 - I’m Out -
Strengths – Baby steps. Rome was not built in a day and nor will Abel’s roster be. After flipping Chubb for some decent pieces and strong draft capital, Abel has a decent starting lineup that should be competitive most weekends. Landry, Lockett, Jeffrey and Kirk should get him by this year and the 1.01 pick Jacobs should be an immediate workhorse. Winston, Stafford and Darnold give him competent starters at QB as well.
Weaknesses – Star power. While the roster builds, Jared doesn’t have that cornerstone yet. But with two 1st rounders in a strong 2020 draft class, if he can sell the right pieces thru this season and acquire more draft capital or young talent, we could see a formidable roster in the near future.
Wild Cards – Howard, Harris, Murray and Ballage all have a clear path to very productive roles if things break right. A Kamara/Sony/Sanders injury here or there, Abel’s RB depth all of a sudden looks pretty good for this year. Also, FAAB. Always FAAB, and if Jared starts to use it, watch out.
Prediction – Tossing away this season again and building young depth and future assets is probably his best plan for this year.
#7 - Smells Low -
Strengths –
Weaknesses – Wrestling…but also WRs. Having only one WR that you could call a WR2 at best is not an ideal spot to be in. Drafting 6 rookie WRs will probably help in the long run but filling those 2 WR spots each week this season will be dicier than picking up women Blazing Saddles.
Wild Cards – As mentioned, the RBs are solid but all have question marks. Aaron Jones seems like a breakout candidate but hasn’t been fully trusted yet. Fournette seems to be on his way out of Jacksonville and his college teammate Guice hasn’t played a down in the NFL yet. Freeman is solid but probably at the end of his career. Ronald Jones is a warm body in a good offense but will probably be replaced in next year’s draft.
Prediction – Riley’s team is much improved but isn’t quite ready to smell a playoff push.
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| The secret to Riley's success. |
#6 - Off Suit 10’s -
Strengths – Gurley and CMC. Kyle laid waste to the league most of last year but fell short in the playoffs once Gurley mysteriously stopped scoring 4 TDs per game. Even if Gurley is 75% of what he was, pairing that with McCaffrey gives him a formidable backfield. Sony Michael provides some insurance but his production is tenuous with his injury problems and Pats usage of their RBs.
Weaknesses – Not accounting for Mitch. All Kyle wanted was to move up and draft Kyler Murray and he made that widely known. He thought he had outfoxed Finken but failed to account for Mitch’s terrible QB depth. If $cam Newton can’t get his shoulder right before the season, he’ll be relying on Old Man Rivers and Mariota to hold his 2nd QB spot.
Wild Cards – Kyle...Kyle is the wild card. He’s made by far the most trades in the league and probably has at least 10 more in him before this season is done. Some he’s come out ahead like acquiring CMC or TY (yes Kyle, we saw you bragging on Twitter) but others leave us scratching our heads like M Thomas, AB, OBJ….and on and on. He’d better win now since his best pick in the next two drafts is a single 3rd rounder.
Prediction – Gurley is not himself, Sony loses his spot to Harris eventually and Kyle starts to trade off assets to rebuild his lack of any future draft capital and hit his trade quota for set of steak knives.
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| Kyle started last season with so much promise. |
#5 - Play It Backwards-
Strengths – Catchers of the football. Even if AB and Green are aging, Mitch is still rolling out 4 of the best WRs in the league so that’ll be an advantage most weeks. Watkins could also finally pay off if Hill is suspended for any amount of time but we’re sure a soft-tissue injury will pop up as usual.
Weaknesses – Runners of the football. Kamara is a stud and could be even better with Ingram leaving town. However, Mitch’s RB depth is suspect at best with a bunch of 3rd down backs and a rookie that missed OTAs and whose team is usually in a 4-way timeshare. That 2nd RB spot could be a black hole deeper into the season. Also, everyone should’ve seen him drafting Murray. For God’s sakes, his QBs were a 56 year old Tom Brady, Mariota and Mitchell TruBortlesky.
Wild Cards – Mitch’s 2 first round picks could sink or elevate his roster this year. If Murray is Baker with wheels and the Iggles make Sanders a workhorse in a great offense, then PIB is a for sure playoff team. If Kyler gets broken in half and Sanders never gets a full workload, then he’ll be right where his Indianola squad typically is.
Prediction – Kyler is great for a bit but misses significant time and Mitch just barely misses the playoffs.
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| Mitch was so close he could touch it. |
#4 - If We’re Using Logic -
Strengths – Irritating Mitch. Chris still has 2 of the best week-to-week WRs out there and he’s hoping Mike Williams takes the next step into that rarefied air. He’s also done a good job of maneuvering himself into RB depth after the trade for Hunt backfired. The moves are smart as he’s in win-now mode with Julio aging and Ingram, Damien Williams, Hyde and Yeldon essentially 1 year options at best. His QBs are also solid although unspectacular, much like his dance moves and cribbage prowess.
Weaknesses – Getting old. Gronk retiring is going to hurt although he’s had plenty of practice of playing without Gronk because of late-season injuries. Ebron is old already and due for some regression with more receiving options in Indy and Doyle back healthy. He could be at quite a disadvantage most weeks from a TE standpoint. It has to be disappointing because if we knew anything about Chris in college, he prided himself in keeping an eye on the male tight end.
Wild Cards – Chris could benefit this year the way Conner helped Finken last year. If Gordon continues to hold out, that could be huge for Austin Ekeler during the season. And if DJ, Ingram or D Williams gets worn down, Edmonds, J Hill and Hyde could do the same respectively. Having the main backups to Seth’s starting RBs could get him back in as #1 son in Den’s eyes.
Prediction – Chris gets into the playoffs and attempts to win his 8th title in the past 6 years.
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| Mitch is doing this to Lazer within the next 14 months, either on purpose or on accident. |
#3 - Ah, It’s Early -
Strengths – Filling holes. Seth has great top end talent to fill a starting lineup. His starters include 3 of the top 10 WRs, 2 top RBs, a great TE and the QB who just posted the best season in fantasy history. Even if Mahomes is due for some regression, as long as these guys are healthy, he should be contending for his 2nd title.
Weaknesses – Depth, but not according to Cara. However, outside of those 7 players, there’s a lot of question marks in his depth. The bottom half of his WRs are pretty sketchy and his other RBs are backups or in timeshares at best. So once byes kick in or there’s a few injuries, his choices could get thinner than his hairline. He didn’t have much draft capital this year so he’ll need Harry to pan out in a big way going forward. He also had better hope Engram keeps improving or he’s going to really regret trading away the opportunity to grab Hockenson after he fell into his lap.
Wild Cards – DJ and the Cardinals sucking last year killed his season. That should change but relying on a failed Big 12 coach in the NFL is like relying on Mitch to drive you somewhere safely. You know it'll be a fun ride, but you hope he keeps it together long enough to get you there. And if Gordon sticks to his holdout and the Chargers are smart and hold firm, he could experience South’s pain from Bell last year.
Prediction – Gordon reports, DJ is a stud and Dak takes a big step forward solidifying Seth’s place in the playoffs.
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| Seth's back in contention. |
#2 - Rollin 4 Deep -
Strengths – Fantasy Luck. Falling into 2 of the best RB dynasty assets has solidified Finken into a perennial contender. And even if Conner doesn’t replicate what he did last year, he should be a solid starter for the next few years until the Steelers decide they don’t want to pay him either. Rodgers, Brees and Mayfield give him 3 good options each week at QB and OJ should murder at the TE spot in Arian’s offense.
Weaknesses – Outside of Evans, his WRs are a bunch of hit-and-miss young guys and rookies. He needs Robinson to be more consistent another year removed from his surgery and a few of the young guys to step up or he’s going to be rolling a 6-sided dice each week for guidance on who to start at his other WR spots.
Wild Cards – Tevin Coleman and Royce Freeman are in convoluted timeshares but if one or both grabs the spot, look out. Also, this is probably Devante Parker’s year...for real this time.
Prediction – The #StatCorrectionChamp makes a deep playoff run again but ultimately falls short to finally...
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| Finken celebrating his title all year long. |
#1 - Fuck It Three -
Strengths – RBs and life in general. Garrett loves him some RBs and proved it again this year. After he gave up most of his draft to get Chubb, he traded Sony away in order to draft Gurley’s potential replacement. He’s got 6 potential top-line starting RBs and should be favored most weeks because of this. Kelce should also be an advantage every week even with Hill back in the lineup.
Weaknesses – Fantasy titles. Tyreeeeek avoided a suspension and Juju steps into AB’s very large shoes so he’s off to a good start. Diggs and Kupp should be solid but someone else has to step up within his WRs. As mentioned before, the good thing is that South may only have to start 2 of these WRs each week based on his RB depth.
Wild Cards – Garrett takes another spin on the Josh Gordon merry-go-round. And if Gurley doesn’t hold up and Henderson does take his spot, well he might do to the league what he did to Riley on draft night.
Prediction – South finally breaks his own glass ceiling and hangs the trophy on his wall. The only question is which of the 7 bedrooms does he choose? Or should he buy a guest house just for the trophy?
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| South's time is just about to take off. |
Draft Grades
I’m Out - B- It was a no-brainer to take Jacobs at 1.1. I question a bit the thought of trading out of 1.5 instead of taking Sanders/Harry/whoever because he has to wait until 2021 for it to really pay off but he ended up with a few other decent assets. Metcalf is a swing-for-the-fences pick and makes sense. Harris, Singletary and Snell could all have a role as soon as late this year. Daniel Jones got booed but he’s going to get every chance to be the QB in NY once they dispose of Eli’s corpse.
Smells Low - C- Riley won’t have a problem filling his 3 redshirt spots after drafting 11 players. Was surprised he didn’t grab Harry, by far the best WR when that’s what he needed. Montgomery solidifies his RB depth and Hollywood could be decent but is risky and we probably would’ve went safer with that pick. JJAW and Butler are good down-the-road picks. Haskins is unnecessary on his roster and most of the other picks will probably be on the final roster cut bubble. Would’ve expected Riley to package a few of these picks to trade up for better prospects.
Play It Backwards - A+ Mitch threw everyone off by taking Murray and then trading back up to grab Sanders as well. If it works, then he’s set for a while with those two. Isabella is also a great upside pick in a high potential offense. Like the potential of Irv Smith and Dexter Williams next year and Lock could be a thing if Flacco shows he isn’t elite. The only question was Tony Pollard, which was a good pick but probably 2 rounds too early.
Ah, It’s Early - C- Seth had the fewest draft picks taken at 4 after trading back or out a couple of times. Harry fell into his lap, which was probably very unexpected. All 4 picks were WRs, 2 of which were undrafted free agents. Jennings has good upside as no one in Seattle is locked in outside of Lockett. Seth’s best haul was probably all of Abel’s picks he got for next year.
If We’re Using Logic - B Chris needed to leave the draft with a few RBs and a TE and he accomplished that. He didn’t have many picks thanks to the Hunt trade but the Justice Hill and Mattison picks have good potential, as does Sternberger. Mike Davis could also have a good role if Montgomery busts. Kumerow and Pringle are the ultimate dart throws.
Off Suit 10’s - C After missing out on Kyler, Lehman traded back from 1.5 for Ridley and Mariota which isn’t a bad haul for his roster needs. He didn’t really need Fant at 2.3 but it was a homer pick. McLaurin and Boykin have good upside but are in bad offenses. Love needs to prove he’s healthier than Guice before he should be counted on for anything. Renfrow will surely get cut within a year or two and end up on the Pats and win 5 Super Bowls there.
F’ It Three - A If anyone was surprised that Garrett took a RB first, then you haven’t been paying attention. Perfect upside pick since he won’t need him this year and could easily trade someone else if he hits. Hockenson was by far the best value as Kelce isn’t getting younger. And did you hear, Josh Gordon was playing catch with Tom Brady?!?!
Rollin 4 Deep - C+ Finken drafted 4 of the top 8 WRs in the first few rounds and 5 overall. Inside sources say this wasn’t truly his plan but that he went for value at each pick. At least a few of them should pan out decently although it’ll take a year or two. Armstead has good potential in case Fournette wears out his welcome in Jax. Malcolm Brown and Matt LaCosse are Hail Mary’s that’ll probably get cut.
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| We are less than 2 months away gentlemen. |
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