Season 10 - Playoff Preview

Week 14 is in the books and that means the regular season of Year 10 has come to an end.  Just think about that gentlemen, a decade of fake footballing (not the soccer kind, Seth) together.  It’s been a good run and it’s also great to have the continuous text thread documenting the fun along the way.  Although if any of us chose to run to congress or something, there’d be a substantial payoff for NDAs to make this thread magically disappear.  It’s like they always say, keep your friends close and keep the assholes that you want to crush in fantasy football closer.

Our playoff field has been set for several weeks even with the double matchups each week that take all the fun and randomness out of CNK.  All that to say, it was a fairly anticlimactic end to the season.  Our #1 seed, South (shocking, we now) chose to take on Mitch over a 2 week in round 1.  That leaves Seth and Abel to battle to be the beneficiary of Garrett’s inevitable collapse in the finals.  He almost has enough runner up finishes to match Chris’s 12 titles.  We’ll get more into those important matchups after we review the “who-cares” results below. 

 

The Trump Bracket (or loser’s bracket) is also set.  Since we decided to set draft order by optimal scoring for the top 4, there was nothing to decide down here other than pride initially.  But having 4 teams just sit around for 3 weeks while they could be continuing to ignore their family (not Riley) and professional (also not Riley) responsibilities, just didn’t seem right.  So after furiously texting with the Trump Bracket contestants, we’ve decided to do a guillotine-style playoff over the final 3 weeks to determine bragging rights and some loot, in terms of cash and picks.  The winner of this gets $30 and a crappy pick.  And if that doesn’t motivate everyone, not sure what will.  Despite that, this is the best we’re going to do on short notice over text but we’ll all have to put our heads together at the next draft and make sure this is how we want it to go annually for this pathetic group of losers. 

And finally, before we get to our beloved CNK postseason, let’s take a look at how the other leagues we participate in wrapped up.  Abel finished the season with the best record and most points in Best Ball to take home the Benjamin, clinching the #1 seed.  No one should be surprised as he has vast experience of set-it-and-forget-it practice in the CNK.  He’ll take on South in the 1^st round of the playoffs, who edged out Seth of the #4 spot by just over 3 points.  Reached for comment, Seth mentioned that he was fine with this as it was the same 3 points that his Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes by back in September.

 Mitch and Kyle finished #2-3 and will face off on the other side of the bracket.  The remaining 4 don’t care as they probably forgot this league was still going on.  And while Chris somehow managed to win 2 of his last 3 after losing 8 in a row to finish not-last in the standings, he still was last in points by a decent margin.  At least until his lawsuit reaches the kangaroo court and proves tabulation fraud and he’s crowned the rightful league champion. 

In the Guillotine league, the final four ended up being all CNK as Seth, Mitch, Riley and Chris played it off for the title.  Mitch fell in Week 11 to finish 4^th and Seth lost his head in Week 12 to grab 3^rd.  That left Chris and Riley to battle it out.  The “Old Man vs The Kid”, “Teacher vs. Pupil”, “Dancing Disco Ball vs. The Schozz”.  Hollywood could not have scripted a final between two less-deserving individuals. 

It was up to them to essentially build the ultimate roster with the entire NFL available.  Chris ended up constructing a formidable team on paper for the final week but Riley made the correct decisions.  He rode Hurts, CMC, Diggs, Devante and the Sun God to a total that Chris couldn’t have beaten with an optimized lineup, which should give him peace of mind as we’re not sure he could have done any worse in the final week setting his starting lineup.  Congrats Riley, you can take all those winnings from beating a bunch of old men and finally buy that engagement ring that would pry even more money out of Chris.

And now, what you’ve all been waiting for, our CNK playoff preview:

 

Fuck It Three vs. Play It Backwards

South finished the season 13-1 and only dropped his match with Abel in Week 12, thereby earning the right to choose his opponent between Mitch, Seth and Jared.  Much game-theory computing was done trying to decide what choice to make.  Does he take the weakest opponent so he’s almost assured of a shot at the title or does he choose the stronger opponent since his team is stacked and he’d have to lose over a 2-week total, which hasn’t happened all season? 

In the end, he chose Mitch who is the 2^nd highest in points and record.  Inside sources say it’s primarily because PIB just lost Kyler and maybe DJ Moore along with not having his little Cooper Kupp around; not to mention the revolving door of TEs goose-eggs Mitch cycles thru each week.  South wanted no part of Dak and Mahomes over a 2 week stretch or Abel’s red-hot squad after 5 wins in a row. 

As usual when FIT is involved, the match-up looks quite lopsided even if Garrett has to stick with DeShaun Waston and can’t massage Lamar back into the lineup.  JJ, Tyreeeeek, Diggs, and CMC should do enough to keep him above a PIB squad that is missing the key guys already mentioned and has some real tough matchups.  Tua has to do snow-angels in the Buffalo snow, Belichick will take Davante away and Kamara can’t repeat 2020’s miraculous 6-TD game surely.  Between Southy luck and his team being a freight train, we’ll say FIT wins by an easy 69 (nice!) points overall.

South seeing Mitch's team trying to avoid him.

Ah It’s Early vs. I’m Out

After getting a taste of the playoffs in 2020, Abel is back and this time is ready to party.  A midseason trade for Kelce really jump-started his ascent (South could not be reached for comment on his feelings on this trade now) and as mentioned, he’s won 5 in a row to claim this spot.  Josh Jacobs has got to be the fantasy MVP this year and TLaw has really started playing up to the potential now that he’s finally washed the Urban off him.  Jamaal Williams is a TD-machine and King Henry just keeps trucking.  Losing Pierce and maybe Stevenson is going to hurt and depth is not Abel’s strong suit so it’ll be interesting if he can plug those holes.  However, plugging holes may be his new strong suit now that he’s got multiple Tinder profiles up and running.

Abel's recent invention.

Seth had his own 6-week win streak to speak of this year but has faltered recently, losing his last two to Abel and South.  Mahomes and Dak will keep him in every matchup and his roster is pretty healthy for this time of year.  Now it’ll all be about making the right decisions on who to insert and that’s never easy when you’ve got a bunch of quality options like Seth does, between NFL players and Lazer’s sister.  He’ll look to improve on that 3^rd place finish last year so we’ll say that Seth moves on in a close one over Abel in a chance to lose to South by 50 in the finals.

Seth, it's better than 3rd place...

And last but not least, this will be the final power rankings for the year as the holidays kick in.  Just wanted to reiterate how great it is to have this league with everybody and be able to poke fun and get together on a regular basis.  I know it hasn't been as consistent as previous years but we don't want our outings or write-ups to die off.  Wish everyone a safe and happy holidays and Merry Christmas!

Season 10 - Week 10

Week 10 is in the books and it’s been almost 2 months now since we checked in with our fake football leagues.  We’ve barely played cards in that span so we figured we’d try and break the cold streak before Thanksgiving; see if we can’t get this to be a little more regular like Lazer’s doctor-recommended fiber supplements and of a quarterly event, like Finken’s sex life. 

 

First let’s start with the Guillotine league.  It was a fun experiment but is no longer interesting so let’s move…  Fine, let’s discuss.  South was the first eliminated from this group, going out in Week 3 when Stafford, Mixon, Tyreeeek and Gabe Davis all fell flat.  Ironically the same happened in his dynasty matchup against Riley that week.  The problem is that Riley’s team is terrible and managed to still let South win by a mere 0.38. 

Next it was Kyle getting chopped in Week 6 when his bench damn near outscored his starters.  Finken was chopped in Week 9 when Waller was a late scratch and allowed Riley to survive by a nose hair.  We’re now coming up on Week 11 with 4 remaining out of 15 and wouldn’t you know, it’s Seth, Chris, Riley and Mitch remaining.  Way to represent the CNK boys.  It’s amazing looking at the rosters this late with each of the four looking like South's dynasty team, each is more stacked than Riley's sister.

 

 Next, let’s move onto the Best Ball league.  Not sure if anyone every checks this weekly but it’s still going.  No more hours of manual labor by Garrett to keep the monstrosity afloat, resulting in lots of zeros in the QB and TE slots.  As of now, Abel is dominating the points even though he trails Mitch by a game in the wins column.  His whole team is pretty loaded and has avoided major injury luck so far, even with Famous Jameis and Drew Lock as his backup QBs.  South is 100 points back, followed by Mitch and Seth, another 100 back.  It’s hard to really care about this since we did it so long ago but we all should at least track Lansink’s last place squad’s futility. 

 

Finally let’s get to what we all really care about, no not the mountain of mediocrity that is the B1G West standings that Iowa is destined to fall ass-backwards into winning by scoring 12 points a game. It is our beloved CNK dynasty league.  We’re obviously all too busy to get together and hang out over cards and laughs anymore so let’s at least disparage each other from afar over the internet.  We can’t let this fall apart and lose touch.  There’s only 4 weeks left of the regular season so we need to remember to cherish these precious few as they will soon be gone, much like Riley’s bachelor-hood or Chris’s control over his bowel movements.  Plus the trade deadline is this Saturday (Nov 19) so let’s get some activity flowing.  And now, on with the Power Rankings….

1. Fuck It Three – Well, if you’re into reverse regression candidates, then Garrett’s season is textbook.  As you’ll recall last year, he easily led the league in scoring but somehow stumbled into only going 7-7 and missed the playoffs.  Despite of how fun that was last year, we changed our rules to make sure nothing interesting or vaguely unusual will ever happen and added the vs-the-league component.  Well FIT didn’t need that this year as he’s leading the league in scoring and sitting atop our standing unbeaten at 10-0.  Despite trading Kelce away and replacing him with Andrews up-and-down scoring, he’s got the top 3 scoring WRs and posted a +190 score in 6 games.  Oddly, the reverse regression continues as his only two clunkers came against the two worst teams where just about any other squad that week would’ve taken him to the woodshed.  With the top seed in the playoffs a foregone conclusion, Garrett can shift his focus to preparing a spot on his wall for the CNK trophy, as long as he doesn’t run into Chris in the playoffs again.

 

2. Ah It’s Early – After a relatively slow start, like with Chris’s sister, Seth’s come on strong.  He’s won 4 straight after getting Dak, Godwin and Nuke back and recently took down his closest competitors in Mitch and Chris.  He’ll have a tough go this week without Waddle, Godwin or Uncle Lenny but he might be doing with Fournette for some based on how washed up he’s looked the past few weeks.  With this positive momentum, Seth is primed to make his first run at a title since his second cousin, David Johnson, carried him to the promised land in 2016. 

 

3. Play It Backwards – Mitch was just about keeping pace with South, starting the season 5-2, but has stumbled a bit lately, losing 2 of the past 3.  This could continue now that Kupp’s as valuable as Kyle’s side of that trade for the rest of the season.  This could all be karma as not many people would just brazenly ignore the rules (and texts) by keeping 5 starting QBs on their roster as he did in weeks 8 and 9.  Chris is still waiting to pick up Willis on waivers.  Rules are rules and we here at the Power Rankings are recommending that Mitch be dragged thru the streets of Indianola in shame to pay penance for his crimes.  Or something because this is not ‘Nam…

 

We await reparations Mitch.

4. If We’re Using Logic – Chris has had quite the roller coaster season this year.  He’s only been able to string 2 wins together once and most of his wins come against the dregs of the league.  He’ll attribute most of this to losing future league MVP Trey Lance to injury, future FanDuel spokesman Calvin Ridley to suspension and future KC-area used car salesman CEH to sucking.  Also, Taylor/Swift has barely played live this year (see what we did there) and Pitts can only be found in a pile of Falcon shit.  But despite all that, he’s still right in the hunt sitting at 4^th in scoring and on the edge of the playoffs, which is right where he was last year at this time.  A chip and a chair is all Chris needs.  Well, that and his prune juice.

 

Chris every time another key piece goes down.

5. I’m Out – Abel is also right in the hunt for the last playoff spot.  He’s somehow managed to patch things together without really any WRs with a plethora of solid RBs he can keep throwing at his opponents.  Henry may never slow down while Jacobs and Jamal Williams have been pleasant surprises.  Even Pierce and Stevenson have grabbed the starting spot in their respective offenses and not looked back.  Kelce has given him the TE cheat code and while his QBs may be terrible in real life, for fantasy, they’re good enough.  And after beating Finken last week and getting Riley this week while Chris has to deal with South, Abel could be sitting in prime position for a playoff run for 2 years in a row.

 

6. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken’s trying to stay in the hunt for that last playoff spot but it’s going to be tough.  His team is still deep on options each week but most outside of Barkley aren’t living up to expectations.  Herbert and Rodgers have faltered without their stud WR options and his WRs have been too hit or miss.  Probably time to unload some of those aging assets to contenders for their run at South and scrounge what he can for them.  That way he can turn his focus to the NU coaching search.  I’m sure that will turn out way better than the past few.  Probably as well as Lazer predicting Finken to finish second this year.

 

7. Smells Low – This year has not gone as planned for Riley.  Russell Wilson heading to Denver and Mac Jones heading into year two along with his corps of young RBs was going to carry him to the promised land.  Well it turns out Seattle fleeced the Broncos worse than that time Mitch got Kupp for magic beans and a Tupperware full of Spencer Petras’ shaved pubes.  Then the injuries to Dobbins, Javonte and Breece piled up.  Now he’s left starting a 2^nd TE in his flex.  At least he’s actively embracing the white flag and throwing out guys available on his roster and he’s got the draft capital to reload again next summer.  If he nails that draft and his RBs get healthy, he’ll be poised to be even more disappointed when they all get turn into pumpkins again next year.

 

8. Off Suit 10s – Kyle knew what he was in for this year and it’s gone about as expected.  He won the first game of the year and then immediately hit an 8 game losing streak, which he finally broke last week against Chris (we can’t imagine how sweet that must’ve felt to Lehman).  And sandwiched in there was an almost all-time low score of 77.38.  But honestly OS10s has been fairly competitive even with Skyy Moore looking like one of the busts of the draft.  The light at the end of the tunnel is about as dim as a guy from Winterset, but at least there is light…

Season 10 - Week 3

Week 3 is in the books and unfortunately we don’t have time for a full-fledged power rankings.  But since we skipped last week and there were a few big trades, we felt the need to at least check in.  If anyone else is willing or anxious to grind the tape and put some together the rankings in next few weeks, it might be a while until we get another batch.  We at the Power Rankings apologize for this inconvenience but you get what you pay for.

It was a very strange week.  Lots of low scoring and disappointing results but at least most match-ups were close and competitive.  We almost got to witness South and Chris lose to bottom feeders (offense intended) but sadly, were deprived of both.  First by the idiotic Broncos coaching staff continuing their boneheaded game management by trotting Melvin Gordon out there when Javonte is obviously the better option.  Second, Chris losing because CD Lame(b)’s butter fingers dropped that sure TD bomb in the first half would’ve been hysterical. It would’ve meant Chris lost to Riley and then Kyle in back-to-back weeks.  Not a great look for the 8-time** defending champ. 

**all figures approximate

South stands as the last remaining unbeaten team.  After blowing out Finken last week, he got past Riley by a nose, which is never easy to do in that case.  And that must have lit a fire because did he stand pat and hope for the best?  No, he looked half of his team in the eye and told them they were expendable.  He then sent 7 of them packing in trades which we’ll get into later.  Maybe he made these moves because he feels inadequate as the only CNK manager to get chopped in the Guillotine league.  That would be pretty embarrassing.  Garrett’s problem is, now he has several holes on his roster.  When he went looking for replacements on the waiver wire, he found that looked thinner than (ready for the speed roast?)…

-          Seth’s prospects of a glorious neck beard

-          Finken’s chances at following a successful college football team

-          Mitch’s mental health surviving if Chris backs his way into another title this year

-          Chris’s odds of anyone accepting the first trade offer from him

-          Riley’s surviving another season of Deadliest Catch without being kidnapped by Somali pirates

-          Kyle’s prospects of avoiding the draft dinner tab for a 3^rd straight year

-          Abel’s chances to figure out the Guillotine league waiver system based on his CNK FAAB history

-          South’s likelihood of being an eventual diabetic

 

Knocking on wood as we type this but the injury bug has not bitten much so far this year but if there has been a victim, it’s been Seth.  And despite this, he’s remained in good shape getting to 2-1 by handling Mitch in a pillow fight of the lowest scorers of the week.  Apparently Mitch found out the hard way that there’s no Perrys in the CNK.  Seth treated him like Iowa State treated Iowa when they played at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City 19 days ago.  You all remember that?

Abel got on the board with a win over Finken and put up high points on the week.  We’re not sure of his headspace going forward without McCaffrey but he’s not ready to blow it up yet.  He’s got enough pieces to be competitive and see where the next few weeks go.  Plus adding Wilson to his squad means that they can go cougar hunting together in West Glen on Saturday evenings. 

But enough about all that, let’s get to what the people came for…

Hot Take Trade Analysis

South gets Mark Andrews and Christian McCaffrey

Abel gets Travis Kelce, Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore along with a 23 2^nd and 24 1^st and 3^rd

Abel’s surprising RB depth with Pierce and Jamal Williams stepping up plus the Rhamondre/Harris combo in NE made CMC somewhat expendable.  And while trading in 5-6 more years of Andrews for 1-2 of Kelce isn’t ideal, it doesn’t affect him the next year or so. Abel got some young players and good (not great) draft capital for McCaffrey as the hamstring issues start to pop up again.  And if the season turns south (pun intended), Kelce, Henry and a few others would be delicious trade targets for other contenders. 

 

South gets out from Kelce before he drops off, Elijah Moore before anyone realizes Garrett Wilson is the true #1 there and Zach Wilson before he returns this weekend and shows he’s hot garbage.  My guess is a few of us may have given more or equal value for CMC but South jumped first.  Good on him.  It shows a good lesson to us all…Always Be Trading

 

Kyle gets James Robinson, TJ Hockenson, Davis Mills, Nico Collins and Riley’s 23 4^th

South gets a 23 3^rd and 24 2^nd

 

Kyle gets much needed startable players, which he was short on, and South gets some marginal draft capital (for guys who will never start for him), which he’s been short on for a while.  JRob amazingly healed up from his injury last year and has looked good now than the Urban stench is gone.  Hock became expendable for South and hasn’t lived up to the hype but he’s a Hawkeye so Kyle brought him home.  The Texans boys are maybe solid role players but probably not long-term game changers.  But maybe these are the turning point pieces for Kyle and once he completes his build, that 2024 2^nd will definitely be either pick 15 or 16….

Season 10 - Week 1

Week 1 is in the books and we’re officially in our tenth season of the Card Night Kangs.  They say for being together 10 years, the traditional gift is tin or aluminum.  We feel this is fitting based on the number of cans of Busch Light, White Claw and Mountain Dew that we destroyed at the draft this summer.  We have a mostly wide open field this year where most of the league has a legit shot at losing to South in the finals.  

Chris became our first 3-time champ as Riley and Jared are still hunting for that first crown.  We implemented an optimal line-up playoff seeding to take all the fun/randomness that is fantasy football and make sure Garrett makes the playoffs each year.  There was a record low-amount of trading this year as so many teams aren't sure if they're a true contender or not so let's see if we can't fix that over the next few weeks.  

The first week mostly went chalk but there’s bound to be some surprises and as the year gets going. So let’s sit back and enjoy our 10^th year of fake footballing together.  And of course, on with the rankings…

1. Fuck It Three – After dominating the entire 2021 season the way Zach Wilson dominates Cougar Night in West Glen, South picked right up where he left off.  Hopefully for the rest of the league, that also means that he’ll eventually stumble in the wrong spots and miss the playoffs again.  FIT seems poised to live up to Lazer’s prediction of winning the league this year on the backs of Jefferson, Diggs, Tyreeeek and his strong stable of RBs; not to mention his well-rested and thoroughly relaxed Deshaun Watson.  However, wasting a large chunk of FAAB (when nobody else knew waivers were running) on a rookie TE that scores zero points, he should consider taking Professor Abel’s FAAB 101 course on how to preserve his budget for the rest of the season…or next season…or the following season.

2. If We’re Using Logic – Really our reigning champ should start as #1 and hold it until he’s knocked off.  But the integrity of the Power Rankings must take into account the big picture.  And while Chris has his headliners of marquee starters, even he would admit that South’s team has proven it week-after-week the past few years.   Chris did post 2^nd high points and if Allen and Burrow keep this up, he won’t even have to worry about Jimmy Gorgeous taking his rightful starting spot back from Lance or the fact that 3 Seattle TEs catching passes from Geno Smith outscored Pitts.  Week 1 saw a welcomed role reversal as for the first time in 9 months, a Lansink was actually dominating a Johnson.  Wait…we’ve just gotten some breaking news out of Urbandale; there has, in fact been a Lansink dominating a johnson for EACH of the past 9 months.

Jimmy running into Lance in the hallway...

3. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken followed up his playoff appearance last year by taking care of Riley in Week 1.  Barkley looked rejuvenated after basically taking the year off and AJ Brown looks like he’ll fit in nicely in Philly.  And while Herbert and some of his other key pieces were solid as usual, there are some cracks showing.  The preseason hype around ARob fizzled than Scott Frost's extension chances, Rodgers might not actually be MVP without a star to throw to, Zeke might be running into 11 man boxes for the next 2 months and his 2021 1st round WR was rendered useless by AJB.  We’ll find out this weekend as he gets South in Week 2 but we’re guessing it’ll go much like his Husker’s chances against the Sooners this weekend (or any other Power team…or Sun Belt team…or really anybody).  He can turn his attention to the coaching search underway in Lincoln.  Hell by now, the coaching title of R4D might be more prestigious than the Nebraska head job.

4. Play It Backwards – Mitch had a tall task in Week 1 by starting off against Garrett with no preseason and a disastrous waiver process.  He put up a respectable total against South but much like taking the field against Dowling or Valley, he was outmanned and outgunned.  Kupp and Adams did their usual thing but he needs to hope that Kamara isn’t actually hurt and that Brian Robinson gets shot again in order to keep his RB slots filled capably.  The fun part each week will be seeing which of the 6 TEs he goes with.  Holding 20% of your roster hostage for 1 measly starting spot is not the type of stable depth you want to keep.  And at this point, Mitch should know quite a bit about managing a stable.

Good depiction of Mitch's TE stable.

5. Ah It’s Early – It was an up-and-down few days for Seth.  First he watched Josh Allen build a hefty lead for Chris Thursday night and then saw Dak, Godwin and Najee get hurt on Sunday.  None of these injuries bode well for his near-term fantasy future.  However, one key thing did transpire on Saturday afternoon which made him happier than 10 CNK titles or 10 more of Chris’s sisters ever could.  The Cyclones of Ames, IA went into Kinnick and shut up all those Hawk fans for the next 364 days.  Congrats Seth and enjoy it.  Don’t worry about that Week 1 loss.  You got the win where it really matters.

6. Off Suit 10s – Despite all the odds pointing the other way, Kyle started 1-0 last year as well.  While his over/under was set a tad higher this year based on some progress in the offseason, I think we all assume he will probably be competing for the #1 pick again this year.  It was a tale of two (H/h)urts for Kyle in week 1.  The goose egg from Akers on opening night hurt but Hurts and Mayfield did enough to take down Abel after Metcalf couldn’t come thru on MNF.  It was a solid week for playing Abel but now given his daughter’s obvious eye for football talent and negotiating tactics, he may want to start consulting her more often on his continued rebuild.

Kyle to Forrest after Georgia helps him not have to buy dinner again.

7. Smells Low – Speaking of goose-eggs, all 3 of Riley’s TEs put up a big fat 0 this week and lead to a most disappointing start to the season.  After all his accumulating draft picks, he got basically squat from all 6 of his top 15 picks.  But he’s playing the long game, something he definitely “nose” about.  It’s all about building.  And after his matchup with Lansink this weekend, he’ll likely be building a resume for another top 3 pick.  He may want to get Russell Wilson off his team during this rebuild.  Based on the reaction after his return to Seattle, that guy just seems like a super-douche that none of his teammates want around.

Indeed Russell, let us ride.

8. I’m Out –  Now we know why Rachel didn’t fight to keep half of I’m Out in the divorce…

Rachel after Abel's lawyer shows her his post-draft roster.  

Season 10 - Preseason Predictions

Gentlemen and Riley,

As the sweet hours of summer bliss wind down and my back-to-school dreams of students vaping in the bathroom, stacks of tests to grade, and angry parent emails begin to haunt my sleep, I take time to make my annual “way too early but eerily accurate” preseason predictions.  This season appears to provide as much parity as we have seen in quite a few years.  While this led to an incredibly boring offseason of no trading and a draft whose high point was the theatrics surrounding a highly coveted ‘23 6th round pick, it seems that most teams are happy going to battle with the rosters they’ve built.  Here’s to hoping that the new W/L format eliminates the true posers by Week 8 and we see a trade bonanza of an arms race for the playoff contenders.

Looking back to look ahead….Abel losing CMC and Henry for the bulk of the season was a cruel twist of fate for a roster hoping to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. In happier news, Southy’s star-studded roster (that outscored the 2nd place team by about 100 pts in the reg season) backed its way into the Consolation bracket and allowed the Cinderella story to play out for my up-and-coming roster.  While I’m sure I will regret proposing the new W/L format soon enough, it should help ensure that the best teams get to duke it out for the title.

As for my predictions, outside of Abel’s injuries, Southy’s W/L luck, and Seth’s surprising outbursts from Najee and Waddle, the board went mostly as predicted.  The middle tier of Chris, Finken, and Mitch jockeyed for playoff positions late.

2021 Prediction

Position	Predicted	Bracket Finish	Reg Season Pts
1	Southy	Chris	South
2	Abel	Mitch	Mitch
3	Finken	Seth	Seth
4	Chris	Finken	Chris
5	Mitch	South	Finken
6	Riley	Abel	Abel
7	Seth	Riley	Riley
8	Kyle	Kyle	Kyle

For fun, the most accurate predictions came from the memes included in last year’s edition.

Now, your 2022 predictions...

Definitely not “Who Cares Territory” - 

#8 Off Suit 10’s - Power Score 37

When Finken set the win total line at 1.5 in Vegas last summer, I would have lost a lot of money betting the Under.  In tearing it down, Kyle was able to find some real diamonds in the rough in Jalen Hurts and Hunter Renfrow.  While I had my reservations when he traded away a 1st for Bateman last fall, it seems to have worked out with the exit of “Hot Wheels Hollywood Brown” (copyright pending) and the first turning into 1.8.  In an interesting draft move, Kyle took veteran mediocre WR Byron Pringle with several developmental RB options with upside left on the board for Southy to hoard with his 12 late-round picks.

As for the rebuild, I really like the path he chose in starting to put together a promising young WR corp.  Letting them ripen while he brings in QB and TE talent should put him in a position to drop in young RB depth in ‘23 and ‘24.  While this seems to be a 3+ year rebuild, I applaud his commitment to the long game and having a realistic perspective on his roster… after all, not everyone can flip an entire roster and win a title in just 2 years.

Strengths

Watching Infinite Banking TikToks as he builds his rental portfolio faster than his dynasty team.  Seriously, have you seen his silhouette (google it, I dare you).  As for his roster… oof.  On the bright side, if Hurts and Renfrow continue to be reliable starters, he is 2 roster spots ahead of where he should be.  I like London long term but he REALLY needs JuJu, Skyy Moore, and Batemen to hit this year.

Weaknesses

Using the Apple River stabbings as ironclad proof that we should never draft there.  Also, RB, WR, QB, and TE seem to be a little thin at the moment.  Without beating a dead horse, there are some players he hopes to jump into the WR2 and RB2 conversation but there is a general lack of star power at the moment.

Wild Cards

Christian Kirk certainly got paid like a WR1… maybe the Jags know something we don’t… or maybe they are the Jags.  Trey McBride was the best TE in the draft but seems like a few years from relevance at best.  A roster littered with unrealized talent needs to have a few of those late kernels pop in order to have any real relevance this year. Kyle's just hoping not to have to buy dinner for 3 years running.

Tier 3 – 

This tier holds 2 teams heading in opposite directions.  Riley has parlayed some aging pieces to reload in the ‘22 and ‘23 drafts.  Abel is hoping for lighting in a bottle before his would-be contender window closes.  Both would need a pretty serious QB upgrade to really contend this season (call me, 😉)

#7 Smells Low – Power Score 85

While I like his outlook for the near future, Riley is missing the elite week winners right now.   While there is a lot of “potential” here, Higgins is the only proven asset on the team without a looming question about health or their role in the offense.  As for his draft, I liked Hall and Cook in the 1st round but would have gone different directions with the Walker, Lazard, Burks, and Bell picks (personal preference).  Only time will tell if he sniffed out better options than the experts would have grabbed.

Strengths

Has avoided being forced to walk the plank by tuna pirates while handling difficult seamen daily.   Additionally, Riley has nearly completed his Captain Planet Merit Badge Trifecta by officially milking animals from the land, air, and sea.  True roster strengths are hard to identify as most of his positions could be best described as “meh”.  Each positional group boasts one top tier-ish player in Russ, Higgins, Javante, and Kittle but has question marks to backfill.

Weaknesses

Sports that require hand/eye coordination and general life stability.  As for Smells Low, there will probably be some nice weeks turned in by a lot of players on this roster; guessing which players will pop off each week will be the tough part.  The 2nd QB spot will be a problem as Riley is likely giving up 10-15 points to all the top teams at that position.  Adding a player who can potentially throw up a 40 pt week would be clutch.  Whether it is returning from injury, shifting offenses, or unclear roles, almost all of the question marks at the skill positions would need to work out for the best to mold a championship-caliber team from this lump of clay.

Wild Cards

Dobbins, Hall, and Javante ALL need to become consistent weekly contributors if this team has a shot at the playoffs.  Kittle, Scary Terry, and Hot Wheels Brown have all the talent in the world but need to gel quickly with their new QBs.  If this roster stays healthy and has a few St. Brown-sized breakouts, it could steal the last slot in the playoffs.  We’ve seen that a chip and a chair are all you need to have a shot at bringing home the trophy.

#6 I’m Out - Power Score 86

Here’s to hoping Abel has a clear decision to make by the midway point of the season.  This would seem to be the proverbial “make it or break it” season for I’m Out.  With a few high-value assets on the roster, it may be worth trading for some key rebuilding pieces in the ‘23 draft if things go South.  For not making his first selection until the middle of the 3rd, I really like the opportunity and upside long-term for Pierce, Pierce, and Shakir

Strengths

Can maintain the “optimal golf” window from beers 2-12 (and maybe beyond).  From a roster construction standpoint, Andrews appears primed to take the Travis Kelce mantle as the TE1 and he legit has 2 of the top 3 RB when everyone is healthy.  Keenan Allen makes a decent WR1 for this roster and Metcalf should have a bounce back year once Jimmy Handsome takes over in Seattle.

Weaknesses

Although this roster had legitimate championship aspirations last year, the QB slots (plural) remain a big concern. While you can hope that Carr levels up with Adams there and Lawrence sheds the stink of Urban Meyer, he still can't stand toe to toe with the top end of the league here.  Skill position depth is a concern as IO NEEDS to squeeze another year of productivity out of Theilen, Claypool, and Josh Jacobs in his starting lineup.  Relying on either Harris or Stevenson to condense touches in NE or Penny to hold off the rookie all year seems unlikely from his bench.  I’m forecasting a lot of weeks where Goedert has to step in the FLEX to help out during bye weeks… not ideal.  He’ll have take the Khan Academy course on how to use FAAB before week 1 so that he can acquire the next James Robinson with his $1200 carryover budget…wait…did that proposal get approved?  

Wild Cards

It’s now or never for this rebuild.  With Henry and CMC in the lineup together each week, this is a dangerous matchup.  While I like a few of his rookie receiver dart throws, one of them would need to show out.  Abel needs to decide if he is willing to push all his chips in and go get 1-2 more high-end starters or if he plans to hedge his bets until mid-season to see where he stands.  One way or the other, a successful season means this roster looks a lot different in January.  

Tier 2 – 

This tier should be the fun one to watch as our playoff battleground.  With 4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots in my projections, injury luck will almost certainly determine who is outside looking in.

#5 Ah, It’s Early –  Power Score 103

Everybody likes a good streak… especially when it is the Regular Season Champ selecting the guy to beat him in the first round of the playoffs.  Luckily for IWUL, Seth was the only playoff matchup that would have advanced him to the finals.  The shame of that defeat will haunt his children’s children.  As for his draft, I like the talent in Garrett Wilson but worry that he might be the 2nd best WR on a bad offense for the next 2-3 seasons.  Love the Pickens pick; if he can keep his head right and stay healthy, I think he is the most talented Steelers WR on the roster.  That said, there will probably be some growing pains with a potentially awful QB room in the Steel City.

Strengths

Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards.  Also, making rock climbing look wildly easier than it is for a middle-aged man that attends Lansink holidays. On the fantasy front, the regular season winner returns all the key pieces from last year and adds a dangerous weapon in Ettiene.  While I don’t see any of this year’s draft picks having an immediate impact, I do like some pieces he added for down the road. Mahomes and Dak make one of the best QB combos again and this roster has a great stable of running backs.  AIE will be a tough matchup every week with his depth, especially the second half of the season when his WR corp gets healthy and returns from suspension. But will he still be in it by the time he gets all those pieces?

Weaknesses

Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards. (wanted to make sure you read it twice).  For fantasy-sake, separating this tier of teams required some nit-picking (and a decent dose of bias on my part).  While his starting roster is intact from last season, it feels like everyone got a slight demotion in value over the offseason.  Najee loses Check-down Ben and will probably see more stacked boxes when the rookie gets his turn.  Waddle added Hill, Cooper traded the Dak stack for Brissett, DHop was suspended, and Godwin is working back from injury.  

Wild Cards

Dak and Mahomes are talented as ever but are breaking in mostly new receiving corps. This may work in his favor if Dalton Schultz can continue to pretend to be an elite TE. That is the one position where he doesn’t match up well with others at the top of the league now that Gronk has retired (probably…maybe?).

#4 Play It Backwards - Power Score 109

Picture the scene: it's the Thursday before his finals matchup; Southy can’t hurt him from the losers bracket, the only thing between him and fantasy glory is an upstart squad with moxy still cursed with the better part of half a decade of fantasy irrelevance.  The Ekeler trade had been the icing on the cake and nothing could stand in his way.  Mitch makes a romantic candle-lit dinner and tucks his cloth napkin into his collar.  His guest, that beautiful fantasy trophy, glimmers in the candlelight.  Did the Queen of Spades just wink at him?  Sure, his only title came in the first season as he took the ‘ship from a bunch of kids who had no idea how dynasty leagues worked, but that doesn’t matter now.  All of his hard work and scheming are about to pay off.  The camera fades to black as a maniacal laugh builds… End Scene

As for his draft, Mitch may have found the Cowboys #2 WR in the middle rounds but had an otherwise uninspiring day.  Malik Willis has some intrigue but it is hard to imagine a scenario where TEN is bad enough to start him this season.

Strengths

Overconfidence and horse porn; while Southy’s child-free billionaire lifestyle is nice, Mitch was the first of the group to join the equestrian level elite.  From a fantasy standpoint, it is hard to argue with the top end talent here.  Kyler was the MVP through Week 7 last year and looked unstoppable before his injury.  Kupp was an (almost) league winner last year and Adams is (was?) a superstar.  It’s sounding like Kamara’s looming suspension might be tabled until ‘23, giving the Ekeler pairing lethal potency in a PPR league.

Weaknesses

Driving golf balls and vehicles.  As for fake sportsing, this roster has some questions at the back of the starting roster.  Gibson appears to be on the Derrius Guice plan as every story is about how much they hate him there.  Is *checks notes* Dawson Knox the kind of TE who leads you to a ‘ship?  You know what they say, when you have 6 TE, you really have none.

Wild Cards

Can Sutton and Moore finally take the step to become “elite” with new QBs in town? Is Eli Mitchell the real deal or is he the next on a list of SF RBs to flash in the pan with .5 seasons of relevance?  What does Michael Thomas look like after a 2-year layoff with a QB not named Drew Brees?  An injury free season and a solid “yes” to at least 2 of those questions could put Mitch right back in the title game.

#3 If We’re Using Logic - Power Score 115

While normally humble, I’d like to take this moment to enjoy the greatness of my rebuild and bask in your jealousy before I embark on my title defense…. That was nice.  Seriously though, I do owe all of you a huge thank you.  Your lack of trade ambition saved me from disaster on more than one occasion.  To paraphrase Garth Brooks, I thank God for unanswered trades.  Here are a few of my favs…

All kidding aside, this year’s draft is really only interesting if measured by the Kyle Pitts trade last summer.  Looking back, I’m pretty happy to have Pitts for the next decade over Lazard/Williams (1.8 ish) and Rashaad White/ Tolbert (2.8). Zamir White seems to be turning a few heads in Vegas and has the inside track to be the Raiders RB for 2023 and Metchie is a lottery ticket whose talent couldn’t slide down the board any farther.  With the Kamara issue being kicked down the road, it looks like the Mark Ingram pick may be a throw-away (good thing everyone knows the real value is in the ‘23 6th rounder)

Strengths

Offering fair and mutually beneficial trade offers to league mates, drafting like a boss (just as true as it was last year), and being more lucky than good.  Unfortunately for the rest of the league, I have more titles than years scoring in the top 3 in the regular season.  Holy starting lineup!  Holding an advantage at QB, RB, WR, and TE against almost every other starting lineup can be exhausting.  The scary part is most of the young players here are still ascending (see Chase, Pitts, Lamb, Pittman, Taylor, Swift, and Burrow)  With so many players that have week-winning upside on their own, I can’t imagine the agony other managers go through to set a lineup.

Weaknesses

Insufferable modesty and a lack of dynasty research/family life balance (also just as true as it was last year).  IF there is a concern for this roster, it comes in the final Flex spot and with bench depth during bye weeks.  CEH is out of excuses and it’s time to put up or shut up.  Right now Woods, Hunt, and Carter look to be the guys coming out of the bullpen in relief. Ridley being made an example of does me no favors either.

Wild Cards

Even though all arrows are up for Lamb and Pittman, we have yet to see them live up to their potential fully.  If reports on Woods return to form and Burks soiling the bed hold true, he could continue to be the reliable stopgap for this roster.  Kareem Hunt forcing himself out of Cleveland could prove to be a juicy bonus if he were to land in the right spot with a backfield to himself.

#2XB2B coming soon

#2 Rolling Four Deep - Power Score 117

I’ll say it.. I loved this draft for R4D.  Williams, Olave, Dotson, and Doubs are destined to be great fantasy contributors with star potential in the future.  After meandering into the playoffs holding the 5th highest point total last season, he came up short in the title push. With a decent mix of young and old, this roster is built for the long haul.  Unfortunately, that mix contains a lot of consistently good but rarely game-breaking players.  

Strengths

The eternal “nice guy”, online meme builders, and part of a kick-ass Power Rankings duo.  Herbert is a star and Rodgers is the reigning MVP; QB slots seem to be on lock.  Deebo’s contract is settled and he feels primed to repeat as a threat in all aspects of the offense.  A month ago, Evans value peaked with the potential void left by Godwin and Gronk.  While that has cooled with Godwin's progress and Julio’s arrival, Evans is still solid.  Finken should be stacking WRs in every flex spot most weeks.

Weaknesses

Stamina in 5ks and on the golf course.  Drawing Finken as a golf partner at the draft was gold; having him peak after 18 and then carrying his ass for the last 9 was not gold.  Like I said before, I love the upside of his rookie WRs but what he really missed was finding an RB to provide some roster depth.  Looking at the board as it fell to him, I can’t fault any of his picks but that doesn’t solve his potential RB problems in case of injury or bye weeks.  Mostly, R4D is ranked this high because he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses on this well-rounded roster.

Wild Cards

Here is where the unknowns start to pile up; most of the questions here revolve around the Jekyll and Hyde scenarios on his roster.  Will AJ Brown and Devonta Smith cap each others’ upside or create a weekly guessing game on who to start?  While many are optimistic about a Saquan and Zeke renaissance, there isn’t much depth on the roster if they both don’t return to form.  Does Waller’s stock go up or down with Adams in town?  Deebo with Lance? Can James Conner repeat last season? Can Allen Robinson be a mini-Kupp on the Rams?  Right now, most of these scenarios can be viewed in a positive light; we’ll know a lot more by midseason.  If he’s not hunting for the playoffs, it could be firesale time for some of his aging assets.

Tier 1 - 

The Cheese Stands alone.  In a draft where most of the contending teams punted away all the early picks long ago, Southy opted for the “take as many lottery RB as possible because I will have to cut them all anyway approach”.  Not a bad strategy if he finds even one diamond in the rough in his shotgun approach this preseason. Here's hoping Reid sees the fact that Pacheco is just a flash in the pan and sticks with his initial assessment of CEH is Brian Westbrook.

Draft Grade: DGAF+

#1 – F It 3 - Power Score 135

From a point scored standpoint, this team meets every definition of a “Dynasty”.  Over the past 3 seasons, FI3 has outscored 3 teams by over 1000 points and holds a nearly 600-point advantage over the second best.

Unfortunately, people don’t ask “how”, they ask “how many”... and the answer to that question is “not enough”.

While the new W/L format should help ensure a playoff bid here, we can’t help but wonder about what might have been had Southy not wasted the prime of Cook, Chubb, Mixon, Kelce, Diggs, and Hill on one measly championship.

Here’s to hoping you don’t piss another one down your leg...

Strengths

Strong liver to process artificial sugars, top-notch Excel skills, and HVAC diagnostics.  This starting lineup is loaded and has plenty of RB and WR depth to handle a few injuries and the bye weeks with ease.  For this season, FI3 has the best stable of running backs and 3 WR that would be top 2 round picks in a redraft.  A true tough-out every week.

Weaknesses

Seemingly forgot how to send boob gifs and bitches out before the hard Mt. Dew has a chance to change his DNA in the best way possible.  With a roster like this, weak spots are few and far between.  If there were any question marks, they would be guessing which up-and-coming receiver (Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, or Gabe Davis) to use on bye weeks.  His key pieces aren’t getting any younger either so guys like Cook, Mixon, Hill or Diggs could start showing their age.  

Wild Cards

Even most of the wild cards are upside players for this roster.  Is Jeudy ready to take the leap?  How about Davis or Aiyuk?  What version of James Robinson do we see this year and what is his role with Etienne healthy?  The only potential downgrades on this roster might come from a Mahomes-less Tyreek or QB issues. Imagine this: Watson gets suspended for the whole year, Stafford’s elbow never gets right and Lamar gets hit just right on one of his 15 runs per game.  Wilson is already on crutches. Then South had better be correct with all his confidence in Davis Mills.

For fun, here are the number of players selected in each round in redraft for the ‘22 season.