Gentlemen and Riley,
As the sweet hours of summer bliss wind down and my back-to-school dreams of students vaping in the bathroom, stacks of tests to grade, and angry parent emails begin to haunt my sleep, I take time to make my annual “way too early but eerily accurate” preseason predictions. This season appears to provide as much parity as we have seen in quite a few years. While this led to an incredibly boring offseason of no trading and a draft whose high point was the theatrics surrounding a highly coveted ‘23 6th round pick, it seems that most teams are happy going to battle with the rosters they’ve built. Here’s to hoping that the new W/L format eliminates the true posers by Week 8 and we see a trade bonanza of an arms race for the playoff contenders.
Looking back to look ahead….Abel losing CMC and Henry for the bulk of the season was a cruel twist of fate for a roster hoping to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. In happier news, Southy’s star-studded roster (that outscored the 2nd place team by about 100 pts in the reg season) backed its way into the Consolation bracket and allowed the Cinderella story to play out for my up-and-coming roster. While I’m sure I will regret proposing the new W/L format soon enough, it should help ensure that the best teams get to duke it out for the title.
As for my predictions, outside of Abel’s injuries, Southy’s W/L luck, and Seth’s surprising outbursts from Najee and Waddle, the board went mostly as predicted. The middle tier of Chris, Finken, and Mitch jockeyed for playoff positions late.
2021 Prediction
For fun, the most accurate predictions came from the memes included in last year’s edition.
Now, your 2022 predictions...
Definitely not “Who Cares Territory” -
#8 Off Suit 10’s - Power Score 37
When Finken set the win total line at 1.5 in Vegas last summer, I would have lost a lot of money betting the Under. In tearing it down, Kyle was able to find some real diamonds in the rough in Jalen Hurts and Hunter Renfrow. While I had my reservations when he traded away a 1st for Bateman last fall, it seems to have worked out with the exit of “Hot Wheels Hollywood Brown” (copyright pending) and the first turning into 1.8. In an interesting draft move, Kyle took veteran mediocre WR Byron Pringle with several developmental RB options with upside left on the board for Southy to hoard with his 12 late-round picks.
As for the rebuild, I really like the path he chose in starting to put together a promising young WR corp. Letting them ripen while he brings in QB and TE talent should put him in a position to drop in young RB depth in ‘23 and ‘24. While this seems to be a 3+ year rebuild, I applaud his commitment to the long game and having a realistic perspective on his roster… after all, not everyone can flip an entire roster and win a title in just 2 years.
Strengths
Watching Infinite Banking TikToks as he builds his rental portfolio faster than his dynasty team. Seriously, have you seen his silhouette (google it, I dare you). As for his roster… oof. On the bright side, if Hurts and Renfrow continue to be reliable starters, he is 2 roster spots ahead of where he should be. I like London long term but he REALLY needs JuJu, Skyy Moore, and Batemen to hit this year.
Weaknesses
Using the Apple River stabbings as ironclad proof that we should never draft there. Also, RB, WR, QB, and TE seem to be a little thin at the moment. Without beating a dead horse, there are some players he hopes to jump into the WR2 and RB2 conversation but there is a general lack of star power at the moment.
Wild Cards
Christian Kirk certainly got paid like a WR1… maybe the Jags know something we don’t… or maybe they are the Jags. Trey McBride was the best TE in the draft but seems like a few years from relevance at best. A roster littered with unrealized talent needs to have a few of those late kernels pop in order to have any real relevance this year. Kyle's just hoping not to have to buy dinner for 3 years running.
Tier 3 –
This tier holds 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Riley has parlayed some aging pieces to reload in the ‘22 and ‘23 drafts. Abel is hoping for lighting in a bottle before his would-be contender window closes. Both would need a pretty serious QB upgrade to really contend this season (call me, 😉)
#7 Smells Low – Power Score 85
While I like his outlook for the near future, Riley is missing the elite week winners right now. While there is a lot of “potential” here, Higgins is the only proven asset on the team without a looming question about health or their role in the offense. As for his draft, I liked Hall and Cook in the 1st round but would have gone different directions with the Walker, Lazard, Burks, and Bell picks (personal preference). Only time will tell if he sniffed out better options than the experts would have grabbed.
Strengths
Has avoided being forced to walk the plank by tuna pirates while handling difficult seamen daily. Additionally, Riley has nearly completed his Captain Planet Merit Badge Trifecta by officially milking animals from the land, air, and sea. True roster strengths are hard to identify as most of his positions could be best described as “meh”. Each positional group boasts one top tier-ish player in Russ, Higgins, Javante, and Kittle but has question marks to backfill.
Weaknesses
Sports that require hand/eye coordination and general life stability. As for Smells Low, there will probably be some nice weeks turned in by a lot of players on this roster; guessing which players will pop off each week will be the tough part. The 2nd QB spot will be a problem as Riley is likely giving up 10-15 points to all the top teams at that position. Adding a player who can potentially throw up a 40 pt week would be clutch. Whether it is returning from injury, shifting offenses, or unclear roles, almost all of the question marks at the skill positions would need to work out for the best to mold a championship-caliber team from this lump of clay.
Wild Cards
Dobbins, Hall, and Javante ALL need to become consistent weekly contributors if this team has a shot at the playoffs. Kittle, Scary Terry, and Hot Wheels Brown have all the talent in the world but need to gel quickly with their new QBs. If this roster stays healthy and has a few St. Brown-sized breakouts, it could steal the last slot in the playoffs. We’ve seen that a chip and a chair are all you need to have a shot at bringing home the trophy.
#6 I’m Out - Power Score 86
Here’s to hoping Abel has a clear decision to make by the midway point of the season. This would seem to be the proverbial “make it or break it” season for I’m Out. With a few high-value assets on the roster, it may be worth trading for some key rebuilding pieces in the ‘23 draft if things go South. For not making his first selection until the middle of the 3rd, I really like the opportunity and upside long-term for Pierce, Pierce, and Shakir
Strengths
Can maintain the “optimal golf” window from beers 2-12 (and maybe beyond). From a roster construction standpoint, Andrews appears primed to take the Travis Kelce mantle as the TE1 and he legit has 2 of the top 3 RB when everyone is healthy. Keenan Allen makes a decent WR1 for this roster and Metcalf should have a bounce back year once Jimmy Handsome takes over in Seattle.
Weaknesses
Although this roster had legitimate championship aspirations last year, the QB slots (plural) remain a big concern. While you can hope that Carr levels up with Adams there and Lawrence sheds the stink of Urban Meyer, he still can't stand toe to toe with the top end of the league here. Skill position depth is a concern as IO NEEDS to squeeze another year of productivity out of Theilen, Claypool, and Josh Jacobs in his starting lineup. Relying on either Harris or Stevenson to condense touches in NE or Penny to hold off the rookie all year seems unlikely from his bench. I’m forecasting a lot of weeks where Goedert has to step in the FLEX to help out during bye weeks… not ideal. He’ll have take the Khan Academy course on how to use FAAB before week 1 so that he can acquire the next James Robinson with his $1200 carryover budget…wait…did that proposal get approved?
Wild Cards
It’s now or never for this rebuild. With Henry and CMC in the lineup together each week, this is a dangerous matchup. While I like a few of his rookie receiver dart throws, one of them would need to show out. Abel needs to decide if he is willing to push all his chips in and go get 1-2 more high-end starters or if he plans to hedge his bets until mid-season to see where he stands. One way or the other, a successful season means this roster looks a lot different in January.
Tier 2 –
This tier should be the fun one to watch as our playoff battleground. With 4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots in my projections, injury luck will almost certainly determine who is outside looking in.
#5 Ah, It’s Early – Power Score 103
Everybody likes a good streak… especially when it is the Regular Season Champ selecting the guy to beat him in the first round of the playoffs. Luckily for IWUL, Seth was the only playoff matchup that would have advanced him to the finals. The shame of that defeat will haunt his children’s children. As for his draft, I like the talent in Garrett Wilson but worry that he might be the 2nd best WR on a bad offense for the next 2-3 seasons. Love the Pickens pick; if he can keep his head right and stay healthy, I think he is the most talented Steelers WR on the roster. That said, there will probably be some growing pains with a potentially awful QB room in the Steel City.
Strengths
Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards. Also, making rock climbing look wildly easier than it is for a middle-aged man that attends Lansink holidays. On the fantasy front, the regular season winner returns all the key pieces from last year and adds a dangerous weapon in Ettiene. While I don’t see any of this year’s draft picks having an immediate impact, I do like some pieces he added for down the road. Mahomes and Dak make one of the best QB combos again and this roster has a great stable of running backs. AIE will be a tough matchup every week with his depth, especially the second half of the season when his WR corp gets healthy and returns from suspension. But will he still be in it by the time he gets all those pieces?
Weaknesses
Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards. (wanted to make sure you read it twice). For fantasy-sake, separating this tier of teams required some nit-picking (and a decent dose of bias on my part). While his starting roster is intact from last season, it feels like everyone got a slight demotion in value over the offseason. Najee loses Check-down Ben and will probably see more stacked boxes when the rookie gets his turn. Waddle added Hill, Cooper traded the Dak stack for Brissett, DHop was suspended, and Godwin is working back from injury.
Wild Cards
Dak and Mahomes are talented as ever but are breaking in mostly new receiving corps. This may work in his favor if Dalton Schultz can continue to pretend to be an elite TE. That is the one position where he doesn’t match up well with others at the top of the league now that Gronk has retired (probably…maybe?).
#4 Play It Backwards - Power Score 109
Picture the scene: it's the Thursday before his finals matchup; Southy can’t hurt him from the losers bracket, the only thing between him and fantasy glory is an upstart squad with moxy still cursed with the better part of half a decade of fantasy irrelevance. The Ekeler trade had been the icing on the cake and nothing could stand in his way. Mitch makes a romantic candle-lit dinner and tucks his cloth napkin into his collar. His guest, that beautiful fantasy trophy, glimmers in the candlelight. Did the Queen of Spades just wink at him? Sure, his only title came in the first season as he took the ‘ship from a bunch of kids who had no idea how dynasty leagues worked, but that doesn’t matter now. All of his hard work and scheming are about to pay off. The camera fades to black as a maniacal laugh builds… End Scene
As for his draft, Mitch may have found the Cowboys #2 WR in the middle rounds but had an otherwise uninspiring day. Malik Willis has some intrigue but it is hard to imagine a scenario where TEN is bad enough to start him this season.
Strengths
Overconfidence and horse porn; while Southy’s child-free billionaire lifestyle is nice, Mitch was the first of the group to join the equestrian level elite. From a fantasy standpoint, it is hard to argue with the top end talent here. Kyler was the MVP through Week 7 last year and looked unstoppable before his injury. Kupp was an (almost) league winner last year and Adams is (was?) a superstar. It’s sounding like Kamara’s looming suspension might be tabled until ‘23, giving the Ekeler pairing lethal potency in a PPR league.
Weaknesses
Driving golf balls and vehicles. As for fake sportsing, this roster has some questions at the back of the starting roster. Gibson appears to be on the Derrius Guice plan as every story is about how much they hate him there. Is *checks notes* Dawson Knox the kind of TE who leads you to a ‘ship? You know what they say, when you have 6 TE, you really have none.
Wild Cards
Can Sutton and Moore finally take the step to become “elite” with new QBs in town? Is Eli Mitchell the real deal or is he the next on a list of SF RBs to flash in the pan with .5 seasons of relevance? What does Michael Thomas look like after a 2-year layoff with a QB not named Drew Brees? An injury free season and a solid “yes” to at least 2 of those questions could put Mitch right back in the title game.
#3 If We’re Using Logic - Power Score 115
While normally humble, I’d like to take this moment to enjoy the greatness of my rebuild and bask in your jealousy before I embark on my title defense…. That was nice. Seriously though, I do owe all of you a huge thank you. Your lack of trade ambition saved me from disaster on more than one occasion. To paraphrase Garth Brooks, I thank God for unanswered trades. Here are a few of my favs…
All kidding aside, this year’s draft is really only interesting if measured by the Kyle Pitts trade last summer. Looking back, I’m pretty happy to have Pitts for the next decade over Lazard/Williams (1.8 ish) and Rashaad White/ Tolbert (2.8). Zamir White seems to be turning a few heads in Vegas and has the inside track to be the Raiders RB for 2023 and Metchie is a lottery ticket whose talent couldn’t slide down the board any farther. With the Kamara issue being kicked down the road, it looks like the Mark Ingram pick may be a throw-away (good thing everyone knows the real value is in the ‘23 6th rounder)
Strengths
Offering fair and mutually beneficial trade offers to league mates, drafting like a boss (just as true as it was last year), and being more lucky than good. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, I have more titles than years scoring in the top 3 in the regular season. Holy starting lineup! Holding an advantage at QB, RB, WR, and TE against almost every other starting lineup can be exhausting. The scary part is most of the young players here are still ascending (see Chase, Pitts, Lamb, Pittman, Taylor, Swift, and Burrow) With so many players that have week-winning upside on their own, I can’t imagine the agony other managers go through to set a lineup.
Weaknesses
Insufferable modesty and a lack of dynasty research/family life balance (also just as true as it was last year). IF there is a concern for this roster, it comes in the final Flex spot and with bench depth during bye weeks. CEH is out of excuses and it’s time to put up or shut up. Right now Woods, Hunt, and Carter look to be the guys coming out of the bullpen in relief. Ridley being made an example of does me no favors either.
Wild Cards
Even though all arrows are up for Lamb and Pittman, we have yet to see them live up to their potential fully. If reports on Woods return to form and Burks soiling the bed hold true, he could continue to be the reliable stopgap for this roster. Kareem Hunt forcing himself out of Cleveland could prove to be a juicy bonus if he were to land in the right spot with a backfield to himself.
#2XB2B coming soon
#2 Rolling Four Deep - Power Score 117
I’ll say it.. I loved this draft for R4D. Williams, Olave, Dotson, and Doubs are destined to be great fantasy contributors with star potential in the future. After meandering into the playoffs holding the 5th highest point total last season, he came up short in the title push. With a decent mix of young and old, this roster is built for the long haul. Unfortunately, that mix contains a lot of consistently good but rarely game-breaking players.
Strengths
The eternal “nice guy”, online meme builders, and part of a kick-ass Power Rankings duo. Herbert is a star and Rodgers is the reigning MVP; QB slots seem to be on lock. Deebo’s contract is settled and he feels primed to repeat as a threat in all aspects of the offense. A month ago, Evans value peaked with the potential void left by Godwin and Gronk. While that has cooled with Godwin's progress and Julio’s arrival, Evans is still solid. Finken should be stacking WRs in every flex spot most weeks.
Weaknesses
Stamina in 5ks and on the golf course. Drawing Finken as a golf partner at the draft was gold; having him peak after 18 and then carrying his ass for the last 9 was not gold. Like I said before, I love the upside of his rookie WRs but what he really missed was finding an RB to provide some roster depth. Looking at the board as it fell to him, I can’t fault any of his picks but that doesn’t solve his potential RB problems in case of injury or bye weeks. Mostly, R4D is ranked this high because he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses on this well-rounded roster.
Wild Cards
Here is where the unknowns start to pile up; most of the questions here revolve around the Jekyll and Hyde scenarios on his roster. Will AJ Brown and Devonta Smith cap each others’ upside or create a weekly guessing game on who to start? While many are optimistic about a Saquan and Zeke renaissance, there isn’t much depth on the roster if they both don’t return to form. Does Waller’s stock go up or down with Adams in town? Deebo with Lance? Can James Conner repeat last season? Can Allen Robinson be a mini-Kupp on the Rams? Right now, most of these scenarios can be viewed in a positive light; we’ll know a lot more by midseason. If he’s not hunting for the playoffs, it could be firesale time for some of his aging assets.
Tier 1 -
The Cheese Stands alone. In a draft where most of the contending teams punted away all the early picks long ago, Southy opted for the “take as many lottery RB as possible because I will have to cut them all anyway approach”. Not a bad strategy if he finds even one diamond in the rough in his shotgun approach this preseason. Here's hoping Reid sees the fact that Pacheco is just a flash in the pan and sticks with his initial assessment of CEH is Brian Westbrook.
Draft Grade: DGAF+
#1 – F It 3 - Power Score 135
From a point scored standpoint, this team meets every definition of a “Dynasty”. Over the past 3 seasons, FI3 has outscored 3 teams by over 1000 points and holds a nearly 600-point advantage over the second best.
Unfortunately, people don’t ask “how”, they ask “how many”... and the answer to that question is “not enough”.
While the new W/L format should help ensure a playoff bid here, we can’t help but wonder about what might have been had Southy not wasted the prime of Cook, Chubb, Mixon, Kelce, Diggs, and Hill on one measly championship.
Here’s to hoping you don’t piss another one down your leg...
Strengths
Strong liver to process artificial sugars, top-notch Excel skills, and HVAC diagnostics. This starting lineup is loaded and has plenty of RB and WR depth to handle a few injuries and the bye weeks with ease. For this season, FI3 has the best stable of running backs and 3 WR that would be top 2 round picks in a redraft. A true tough-out every week.
Weaknesses
Seemingly forgot how to send boob gifs and bitches out before the hard Mt. Dew has a chance to change his DNA in the best way possible. With a roster like this, weak spots are few and far between. If there were any question marks, they would be guessing which up-and-coming receiver (Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, or Gabe Davis) to use on bye weeks. His key pieces aren’t getting any younger either so guys like Cook, Mixon, Hill or Diggs could start showing their age.
Wild Cards
Even most of the wild cards are upside players for this roster. Is Jeudy ready to take the leap? How about Davis or Aiyuk? What version of James Robinson do we see this year and what is his role with Etienne healthy? The only potential downgrades on this roster might come from a Mahomes-less Tyreek or QB issues. Imagine this: Watson gets suspended for the whole year, Stafford’s elbow never gets right and Lamar gets hit just right on one of his 15 runs per game. Wilson is already on crutches. Then South had better be correct with all his confidence in Davis Mills.
For fun, here are the number of players selected in each round in redraft for the ‘22 season.
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