Season 10 - Preseason Predictions

Gentlemen and Riley,

As the sweet hours of summer bliss wind down and my back-to-school dreams of students vaping in the bathroom, stacks of tests to grade, and angry parent emails begin to haunt my sleep, I take time to make my annual “way too early but eerily accurate” preseason predictions.  This season appears to provide as much parity as we have seen in quite a few years.  While this led to an incredibly boring offseason of no trading and a draft whose high point was the theatrics surrounding a highly coveted ‘23 6th round pick, it seems that most teams are happy going to battle with the rosters they’ve built.  Here’s to hoping that the new W/L format eliminates the true posers by Week 8 and we see a trade bonanza of an arms race for the playoff contenders.

Looking back to look ahead….Abel losing CMC and Henry for the bulk of the season was a cruel twist of fate for a roster hoping to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. In happier news, Southy’s star-studded roster (that outscored the 2nd place team by about 100 pts in the reg season) backed its way into the Consolation bracket and allowed the Cinderella story to play out for my up-and-coming roster.  While I’m sure I will regret proposing the new W/L format soon enough, it should help ensure that the best teams get to duke it out for the title.

As for my predictions, outside of Abel’s injuries, Southy’s W/L luck, and Seth’s surprising outbursts from Najee and Waddle, the board went mostly as predicted.  The middle tier of Chris, Finken, and Mitch jockeyed for playoff positions late.

2021 Prediction

Position	Predicted	Bracket Finish	Reg Season Pts
1	Southy	Chris	South
2	Abel	Mitch	Mitch
3	Finken	Seth	Seth
4	Chris	Finken	Chris
5	Mitch	South	Finken
6	Riley	Abel	Abel
7	Seth	Riley	Riley
8	Kyle	Kyle	Kyle

For fun, the most accurate predictions came from the memes included in last year’s edition.

Now, your 2022 predictions...

Definitely not “Who Cares Territory” - 

#8 Off Suit 10’s - Power Score 37

When Finken set the win total line at 1.5 in Vegas last summer, I would have lost a lot of money betting the Under.  In tearing it down, Kyle was able to find some real diamonds in the rough in Jalen Hurts and Hunter Renfrow.  While I had my reservations when he traded away a 1st for Bateman last fall, it seems to have worked out with the exit of “Hot Wheels Hollywood Brown” (copyright pending) and the first turning into 1.8.  In an interesting draft move, Kyle took veteran mediocre WR Byron Pringle with several developmental RB options with upside left on the board for Southy to hoard with his 12 late-round picks.

As for the rebuild, I really like the path he chose in starting to put together a promising young WR corp.  Letting them ripen while he brings in QB and TE talent should put him in a position to drop in young RB depth in ‘23 and ‘24.  While this seems to be a 3+ year rebuild, I applaud his commitment to the long game and having a realistic perspective on his roster… after all, not everyone can flip an entire roster and win a title in just 2 years.

Strengths

Watching Infinite Banking TikToks as he builds his rental portfolio faster than his dynasty team.  Seriously, have you seen his silhouette (google it, I dare you).  As for his roster… oof.  On the bright side, if Hurts and Renfrow continue to be reliable starters, he is 2 roster spots ahead of where he should be.  I like London long term but he REALLY needs JuJu, Skyy Moore, and Batemen to hit this year.

Weaknesses

Using the Apple River stabbings as ironclad proof that we should never draft there.  Also, RB, WR, QB, and TE seem to be a little thin at the moment.  Without beating a dead horse, there are some players he hopes to jump into the WR2 and RB2 conversation but there is a general lack of star power at the moment.

Wild Cards

Christian Kirk certainly got paid like a WR1… maybe the Jags know something we don’t… or maybe they are the Jags.  Trey McBride was the best TE in the draft but seems like a few years from relevance at best.  A roster littered with unrealized talent needs to have a few of those late kernels pop in order to have any real relevance this year. Kyle's just hoping not to have to buy dinner for 3 years running.

Tier 3 – 

This tier holds 2 teams heading in opposite directions.  Riley has parlayed some aging pieces to reload in the ‘22 and ‘23 drafts.  Abel is hoping for lighting in a bottle before his would-be contender window closes.  Both would need a pretty serious QB upgrade to really contend this season (call me, 😉)

#7 Smells Low – Power Score 85

While I like his outlook for the near future, Riley is missing the elite week winners right now.   While there is a lot of “potential” here, Higgins is the only proven asset on the team without a looming question about health or their role in the offense.  As for his draft, I liked Hall and Cook in the 1st round but would have gone different directions with the Walker, Lazard, Burks, and Bell picks (personal preference).  Only time will tell if he sniffed out better options than the experts would have grabbed.

Strengths

Has avoided being forced to walk the plank by tuna pirates while handling difficult seamen daily.   Additionally, Riley has nearly completed his Captain Planet Merit Badge Trifecta by officially milking animals from the land, air, and sea.  True roster strengths are hard to identify as most of his positions could be best described as “meh”.  Each positional group boasts one top tier-ish player in Russ, Higgins, Javante, and Kittle but has question marks to backfill.

Weaknesses

Sports that require hand/eye coordination and general life stability.  As for Smells Low, there will probably be some nice weeks turned in by a lot of players on this roster; guessing which players will pop off each week will be the tough part.  The 2nd QB spot will be a problem as Riley is likely giving up 10-15 points to all the top teams at that position.  Adding a player who can potentially throw up a 40 pt week would be clutch.  Whether it is returning from injury, shifting offenses, or unclear roles, almost all of the question marks at the skill positions would need to work out for the best to mold a championship-caliber team from this lump of clay.

Wild Cards

Dobbins, Hall, and Javante ALL need to become consistent weekly contributors if this team has a shot at the playoffs.  Kittle, Scary Terry, and Hot Wheels Brown have all the talent in the world but need to gel quickly with their new QBs.  If this roster stays healthy and has a few St. Brown-sized breakouts, it could steal the last slot in the playoffs.  We’ve seen that a chip and a chair are all you need to have a shot at bringing home the trophy.

#6 I’m Out - Power Score 86

Here’s to hoping Abel has a clear decision to make by the midway point of the season.  This would seem to be the proverbial “make it or break it” season for I’m Out.  With a few high-value assets on the roster, it may be worth trading for some key rebuilding pieces in the ‘23 draft if things go South.  For not making his first selection until the middle of the 3rd, I really like the opportunity and upside long-term for Pierce, Pierce, and Shakir

Strengths

Can maintain the “optimal golf” window from beers 2-12 (and maybe beyond).  From a roster construction standpoint, Andrews appears primed to take the Travis Kelce mantle as the TE1 and he legit has 2 of the top 3 RB when everyone is healthy.  Keenan Allen makes a decent WR1 for this roster and Metcalf should have a bounce back year once Jimmy Handsome takes over in Seattle.

Weaknesses

Although this roster had legitimate championship aspirations last year, the QB slots (plural) remain a big concern. While you can hope that Carr levels up with Adams there and Lawrence sheds the stink of Urban Meyer, he still can't stand toe to toe with the top end of the league here.  Skill position depth is a concern as IO NEEDS to squeeze another year of productivity out of Theilen, Claypool, and Josh Jacobs in his starting lineup.  Relying on either Harris or Stevenson to condense touches in NE or Penny to hold off the rookie all year seems unlikely from his bench.  I’m forecasting a lot of weeks where Goedert has to step in the FLEX to help out during bye weeks… not ideal.  He’ll have take the Khan Academy course on how to use FAAB before week 1 so that he can acquire the next James Robinson with his $1200 carryover budget…wait…did that proposal get approved?  

Wild Cards

It’s now or never for this rebuild.  With Henry and CMC in the lineup together each week, this is a dangerous matchup.  While I like a few of his rookie receiver dart throws, one of them would need to show out.  Abel needs to decide if he is willing to push all his chips in and go get 1-2 more high-end starters or if he plans to hedge his bets until mid-season to see where he stands.  One way or the other, a successful season means this roster looks a lot different in January.  

Tier 2 – 

This tier should be the fun one to watch as our playoff battleground.  With 4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots in my projections, injury luck will almost certainly determine who is outside looking in.

#5 Ah, It’s Early –  Power Score 103

Everybody likes a good streak… especially when it is the Regular Season Champ selecting the guy to beat him in the first round of the playoffs.  Luckily for IWUL, Seth was the only playoff matchup that would have advanced him to the finals.  The shame of that defeat will haunt his children’s children.  As for his draft, I like the talent in Garrett Wilson but worry that he might be the 2nd best WR on a bad offense for the next 2-3 seasons.  Love the Pickens pick; if he can keep his head right and stay healthy, I think he is the most talented Steelers WR on the roster.  That said, there will probably be some growing pains with a potentially awful QB room in the Steel City.

Strengths

Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards.  Also, making rock climbing look wildly easier than it is for a middle-aged man that attends Lansink holidays. On the fantasy front, the regular season winner returns all the key pieces from last year and adds a dangerous weapon in Ettiene.  While I don’t see any of this year’s draft picks having an immediate impact, I do like some pieces he added for down the road. Mahomes and Dak make one of the best QB combos again and this roster has a great stable of running backs.  AIE will be a tough matchup every week with his depth, especially the second half of the season when his WR corp gets healthy and returns from suspension. But will he still be in it by the time he gets all those pieces?

Weaknesses

Being the only guy I know who barely skates by with both facial hair and my sister as his beards. (wanted to make sure you read it twice).  For fantasy-sake, separating this tier of teams required some nit-picking (and a decent dose of bias on my part).  While his starting roster is intact from last season, it feels like everyone got a slight demotion in value over the offseason.  Najee loses Check-down Ben and will probably see more stacked boxes when the rookie gets his turn.  Waddle added Hill, Cooper traded the Dak stack for Brissett, DHop was suspended, and Godwin is working back from injury.  

Wild Cards

Dak and Mahomes are talented as ever but are breaking in mostly new receiving corps. This may work in his favor if Dalton Schultz can continue to pretend to be an elite TE. That is the one position where he doesn’t match up well with others at the top of the league now that Gronk has retired (probably…maybe?).

#4 Play It Backwards - Power Score 109

Picture the scene: it's the Thursday before his finals matchup; Southy can’t hurt him from the losers bracket, the only thing between him and fantasy glory is an upstart squad with moxy still cursed with the better part of half a decade of fantasy irrelevance.  The Ekeler trade had been the icing on the cake and nothing could stand in his way.  Mitch makes a romantic candle-lit dinner and tucks his cloth napkin into his collar.  His guest, that beautiful fantasy trophy, glimmers in the candlelight.  Did the Queen of Spades just wink at him?  Sure, his only title came in the first season as he took the ‘ship from a bunch of kids who had no idea how dynasty leagues worked, but that doesn’t matter now.  All of his hard work and scheming are about to pay off.  The camera fades to black as a maniacal laugh builds… End Scene

As for his draft, Mitch may have found the Cowboys #2 WR in the middle rounds but had an otherwise uninspiring day.  Malik Willis has some intrigue but it is hard to imagine a scenario where TEN is bad enough to start him this season.

Strengths

Overconfidence and horse porn; while Southy’s child-free billionaire lifestyle is nice, Mitch was the first of the group to join the equestrian level elite.  From a fantasy standpoint, it is hard to argue with the top end talent here.  Kyler was the MVP through Week 7 last year and looked unstoppable before his injury.  Kupp was an (almost) league winner last year and Adams is (was?) a superstar.  It’s sounding like Kamara’s looming suspension might be tabled until ‘23, giving the Ekeler pairing lethal potency in a PPR league.

Weaknesses

Driving golf balls and vehicles.  As for fake sportsing, this roster has some questions at the back of the starting roster.  Gibson appears to be on the Derrius Guice plan as every story is about how much they hate him there.  Is *checks notes* Dawson Knox the kind of TE who leads you to a ‘ship?  You know what they say, when you have 6 TE, you really have none.

Wild Cards

Can Sutton and Moore finally take the step to become “elite” with new QBs in town? Is Eli Mitchell the real deal or is he the next on a list of SF RBs to flash in the pan with .5 seasons of relevance?  What does Michael Thomas look like after a 2-year layoff with a QB not named Drew Brees?  An injury free season and a solid “yes” to at least 2 of those questions could put Mitch right back in the title game.

#3 If We’re Using Logic - Power Score 115

While normally humble, I’d like to take this moment to enjoy the greatness of my rebuild and bask in your jealousy before I embark on my title defense…. That was nice.  Seriously though, I do owe all of you a huge thank you.  Your lack of trade ambition saved me from disaster on more than one occasion.  To paraphrase Garth Brooks, I thank God for unanswered trades.  Here are a few of my favs…

All kidding aside, this year’s draft is really only interesting if measured by the Kyle Pitts trade last summer.  Looking back, I’m pretty happy to have Pitts for the next decade over Lazard/Williams (1.8 ish) and Rashaad White/ Tolbert (2.8). Zamir White seems to be turning a few heads in Vegas and has the inside track to be the Raiders RB for 2023 and Metchie is a lottery ticket whose talent couldn’t slide down the board any farther.  With the Kamara issue being kicked down the road, it looks like the Mark Ingram pick may be a throw-away (good thing everyone knows the real value is in the ‘23 6th rounder)

Strengths

Offering fair and mutually beneficial trade offers to league mates, drafting like a boss (just as true as it was last year), and being more lucky than good.  Unfortunately for the rest of the league, I have more titles than years scoring in the top 3 in the regular season.  Holy starting lineup!  Holding an advantage at QB, RB, WR, and TE against almost every other starting lineup can be exhausting.  The scary part is most of the young players here are still ascending (see Chase, Pitts, Lamb, Pittman, Taylor, Swift, and Burrow)  With so many players that have week-winning upside on their own, I can’t imagine the agony other managers go through to set a lineup.

Weaknesses

Insufferable modesty and a lack of dynasty research/family life balance (also just as true as it was last year).  IF there is a concern for this roster, it comes in the final Flex spot and with bench depth during bye weeks.  CEH is out of excuses and it’s time to put up or shut up.  Right now Woods, Hunt, and Carter look to be the guys coming out of the bullpen in relief. Ridley being made an example of does me no favors either.

Wild Cards

Even though all arrows are up for Lamb and Pittman, we have yet to see them live up to their potential fully.  If reports on Woods return to form and Burks soiling the bed hold true, he could continue to be the reliable stopgap for this roster.  Kareem Hunt forcing himself out of Cleveland could prove to be a juicy bonus if he were to land in the right spot with a backfield to himself.

#2XB2B coming soon

#2 Rolling Four Deep - Power Score 117

I’ll say it.. I loved this draft for R4D.  Williams, Olave, Dotson, and Doubs are destined to be great fantasy contributors with star potential in the future.  After meandering into the playoffs holding the 5th highest point total last season, he came up short in the title push. With a decent mix of young and old, this roster is built for the long haul.  Unfortunately, that mix contains a lot of consistently good but rarely game-breaking players.  

Strengths

The eternal “nice guy”, online meme builders, and part of a kick-ass Power Rankings duo.  Herbert is a star and Rodgers is the reigning MVP; QB slots seem to be on lock.  Deebo’s contract is settled and he feels primed to repeat as a threat in all aspects of the offense.  A month ago, Evans value peaked with the potential void left by Godwin and Gronk.  While that has cooled with Godwin's progress and Julio’s arrival, Evans is still solid.  Finken should be stacking WRs in every flex spot most weeks.

Weaknesses

Stamina in 5ks and on the golf course.  Drawing Finken as a golf partner at the draft was gold; having him peak after 18 and then carrying his ass for the last 9 was not gold.  Like I said before, I love the upside of his rookie WRs but what he really missed was finding an RB to provide some roster depth.  Looking at the board as it fell to him, I can’t fault any of his picks but that doesn’t solve his potential RB problems in case of injury or bye weeks.  Mostly, R4D is ranked this high because he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses on this well-rounded roster.

Wild Cards

Here is where the unknowns start to pile up; most of the questions here revolve around the Jekyll and Hyde scenarios on his roster.  Will AJ Brown and Devonta Smith cap each others’ upside or create a weekly guessing game on who to start?  While many are optimistic about a Saquan and Zeke renaissance, there isn’t much depth on the roster if they both don’t return to form.  Does Waller’s stock go up or down with Adams in town?  Deebo with Lance? Can James Conner repeat last season? Can Allen Robinson be a mini-Kupp on the Rams?  Right now, most of these scenarios can be viewed in a positive light; we’ll know a lot more by midseason.  If he’s not hunting for the playoffs, it could be firesale time for some of his aging assets.

Tier 1 - 

The Cheese Stands alone.  In a draft where most of the contending teams punted away all the early picks long ago, Southy opted for the “take as many lottery RB as possible because I will have to cut them all anyway approach”.  Not a bad strategy if he finds even one diamond in the rough in his shotgun approach this preseason. Here's hoping Reid sees the fact that Pacheco is just a flash in the pan and sticks with his initial assessment of CEH is Brian Westbrook.

Draft Grade: DGAF+

#1 – F It 3 - Power Score 135

From a point scored standpoint, this team meets every definition of a “Dynasty”.  Over the past 3 seasons, FI3 has outscored 3 teams by over 1000 points and holds a nearly 600-point advantage over the second best.

Unfortunately, people don’t ask “how”, they ask “how many”... and the answer to that question is “not enough”.

While the new W/L format should help ensure a playoff bid here, we can’t help but wonder about what might have been had Southy not wasted the prime of Cook, Chubb, Mixon, Kelce, Diggs, and Hill on one measly championship.

Here’s to hoping you don’t piss another one down your leg...

Strengths

Strong liver to process artificial sugars, top-notch Excel skills, and HVAC diagnostics.  This starting lineup is loaded and has plenty of RB and WR depth to handle a few injuries and the bye weeks with ease.  For this season, FI3 has the best stable of running backs and 3 WR that would be top 2 round picks in a redraft.  A true tough-out every week.

Weaknesses

Seemingly forgot how to send boob gifs and bitches out before the hard Mt. Dew has a chance to change his DNA in the best way possible.  With a roster like this, weak spots are few and far between.  If there were any question marks, they would be guessing which up-and-coming receiver (Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, or Gabe Davis) to use on bye weeks.  His key pieces aren’t getting any younger either so guys like Cook, Mixon, Hill or Diggs could start showing their age.  

Wild Cards

Even most of the wild cards are upside players for this roster.  Is Jeudy ready to take the leap?  How about Davis or Aiyuk?  What version of James Robinson do we see this year and what is his role with Etienne healthy?  The only potential downgrades on this roster might come from a Mahomes-less Tyreek or QB issues. Imagine this: Watson gets suspended for the whole year, Stafford’s elbow never gets right and Lamar gets hit just right on one of his 15 runs per game.  Wilson is already on crutches. Then South had better be correct with all his confidence in Davis Mills.

For fun, here are the number of players selected in each round in redraft for the ‘22 season.

Season 9 - Week 13

Week 13 is in the books and we’ve come to the last weekend of the regular season.  Yes folks, it’s sad that our season is almost over but you can rejoice that the fake, and then real NFL playoffs, are right around the corner.  But before we start looking at the playoff scenarios, let’s take a look at our trades that all happened right before the trade deadline with some patented Hot Take Trade Analysis: 

Mitch gets Ekeler and a 2023 2^nd and 3^rd while Riley gets JK Dobbins, Toney and a 2022 1^st and 2023 3^rd

 

Riley offered Ekeler to about everyone in the league and probably a few people on the street that hurriedly ran away from his Jesus haircut and rapist van.  He ended up getting a pretty good haul for him in another 1^st and two young pieces.  If Dobbin’s ACL can heal and the Giants can get a QB, Riley could be ready to compete next year even without all his draft picks.  Mitch gets one of the steadiest players this year and should make him as dangerous as anyone in the playoffs, assuming Kamara is healthy.  A few league members could benefit from some analysis of this trade and how it benefits all parties involved. 

 

Seth gets Leonard Fournette and South’s 2^nd round pick while Kyle gets Cam Akers and Riley’s 4^th rounder

 

Seth pushed all his chips in this year grabbing another depth piece to go with his already stacked lineup.  He acquired a surprisingly good Fournette and a late 2^nd for Akers who wasn’t going to help him win the title this year.  This could be the piece that pushes him over the top and may even help next year.  Kyle gets a foundational piece to build around for an aging RB and a 2^nd round pick.  From our research, that’s a little rape-y but Achilles injuries in RBs are nothing to sneeze at.

 

Kyle gets AJ Green and a 3^rd and Chris gets Zach Ertz and JD McKissic

 

This is just gross.  Good job Kyle for getting more than a ham sandwich for both of these guys. 

 

Now let’s get back to what we’re really here for.  Several things are up in the air going into our final week.  Seth and Finken are locks and get to play-it-off for the #1 seed in Week 14.  The remaining 2 spots will go to Mitch, South or Lazer.   The only problem is that the matchups leave a little to be desired as none are matched up against each other.  The three of them are all but guaranteed victories against the dregs of the league so it’ll all likely come down to points.  We’ll get into that a bit later but let’s just say it doesn’t look great for La-Lazer.

There is one thing that has been decided and that is that Kyle’s buying dinner again.  He’s been learning from the Jags and Lions in the arts of “innovators of failure” as he’s guaranteed to have the lowest season points in the ‘No K/D’ era.  Since we switched formats to the two lowest scoring teams playing for the #1 seed, Riley’s got a 50-point headstart on Abel on who faces off against Kyle.  We’ll trust that each guy has enough integrity to start an optimal line-up this weekend and may the worst man lose? 

So let’s strap in and enjoy this final weekend.  And now on with the rankings:

1. Ah It’s Early – Seth could’ve wrapped up the #1 seed this past week but lost to the only team that outscored him.  Now he gets to face off against Finken in a winner-take-all for the right to choose their opponent.  And remember, the #1 seed is even more important as you’ll face off against that team for 2 cumulative weeks.  He’s a favorite right now and even though his 3 Bucs are going against a stout Bills D, the weather probably won’t be in Tampa what it was in Buffalo Monday night.  They’ll probably be as much scoring in that game as there is in the Johnson household on a weekly basis.

2. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken somehow hung on against South after Diggs could not manage the 11 points Garrett needed for victory.  Had that not had happened, he almost surely would’ve missed the playoffs.  Mitch, South and Chris are heavy favorites and all have a points lead over him as well.  So he goes from probably missing the playoffs to vying for the #1 seed.  MNF could not have been an easy watch for the other 3 bubble teams (along with the rest of America).  So Finken gets a chance to defend his title and become the 1^st three-time champ.  Well, of course other than Chris’s claimed 5 titles. 

Finken jumping into the TB12 Method is paying off.

3. Play It Backwards – With the addition of Ekeler (and assuming Kamara makes it back), Mitch may have the best roster playoff roster aside from his uninspiring TE options.  But in a way, he’s lucky to still be in the playoffs.  After 5 weeks of very poor production (just 125 per week in Weeks 8-12!), he managed 2 victories in there (we’ll let you guess who those were against) and finally reemerged as a contender this past week in taking down Seth.  He’s fairly safe in the playoff picture; a win and he’s in.  A loss and a loss by either South or Chris, and he’s in.  The only way he misses out is if he loses and both Garrett and Chris win and Lazer outscores him by 70 points.  Luckily Chris doesn’t have the talent Lewis Central does so he’s probably home free. 

It's been dicey for Mitch but he's pretty much safe.  

4. Fuck It Three – At one point after the early games, South was projected to score over 200 and crush Finken after Jefferson and Montgomery went crazy.  However, Yahoo did not foresee the 5 single digit totals that his skill guys were going to post in late action.  So South, who’s been rolling lately and has by far the more points scored in the league (and potentially all-time with a +190 game in Week 14), is in danger of missing the playoffs.  He makes the playoffs if he wins or if both him and Chris lose.  However, if Lazer beats Kyle and South somehow loses to an Ekeler-less Riley, it’s going to be a long offseason of scouting 5^th round picks.  He likely (editors note: FINALLY!!!) won’t be able to undercut Finken in the draft this year.

South every week against every team.

5. If We’re Using Logic – Well that’s a kick in the crotch. Chris thought his Greatest Drafts Ever™ had paid early dividends as he went on a midseason run and JT became the best player in fantasy.  But then Ridley opted out, Pitts stagnated, CEH and Woods got hurt, and the combo of Chase, Lamb and Mike Williams stopped producing.  His team became the Kirk Cousins of the CNK…good enough to almost get you there but not enough to seal the deal (something he may want to talk to Seth about).  There’s good news and bad news.  The good news is he gets to face Kyle in Week 14.  The bad news is all South has to do is beat the RB-less, starting 2 TEs Riley.  The other bad news is that it’ll be tough to outscore Mitch by 70 without Taylor or Pittman, and now Mike William’s unvaxxed ass.  One would think that back-to-back Best Drafts Ever™ would yield higher playoff odds but then again, your humble moderators are not math guys.  Chris might have to break the Crayons out once again.

Lansink trying to figure a way into the playoffs.

6. Smells Low – Riley gets some credit for being competitive earlier this year after unloading Godwin, Jones and Montgomery.  He won a few games he probably shouldn’t have and even had a chance at the last playoff spot until Josh Allen (and more realistically Bill Belichick) closed the door on that Monday night.  And unless he goes off on South (like he did in Week 7), he’ll be going against Kyle for the #1 pick.  As previously mentioned, Riley’s done a good job of tearing it down despite keeping his key pieces while grabbing young talent and 2 years of draft capital.  In a way, he kind of out Kyle’d Kyle.  After the 2023 draft, his team could be sexier than his sister’s Instagram page.    

7. I’m Out – Much like his visit to the Rhino, this season just did not go the way Abel or really any of us thought it would.  After acquiring Henry, CMC, Thielen and Keenan Allen along with adding Trevor Lawrence, Jared was primed for his own title run after getting some playoff experience last year.  But now he’s tied for the worst record and is only playing for pick 3.1 vs 3.3.  He could finish the season on a 3 game winning streak by taking down Mitch and making things interesting but we don’t think his lone waiver wire addition of Nelson Agholor is going to make up for all the IR weeks of his key guys.  Maybe next year Abel.

Yes Abel...next year is it...

8. Off Suit 10s – Lehman, you treated us to an incredible meal last year in Vegas and for that we’ll be forever grateful.  We won’t be expecting the same from you this year because from the looks of this draft class and your overall depth chart, you might be sitting here again one year from today.  But we have faith that our local used car salesman has something up his sleeve to bring him out of the cellar.  We’ll have our popcorn waiting.

Season 9 - Week 10

Week 10 is in the books and it’s time for another installment of the Power Rankings.  We’d like to apologize for these being more irregular than a Sunday morning pee stream but it’s been a busy fall for your humble moderators.  Garrett’s been busy negotiating labor peace at John Deere with those fat-cat union workers (geez, they’re worse than teachers…) and Finken’s been dodging the ‘rona and gators on the golf course in Florida.  We’d love to stay that it’ll become more consistent the rest of the year but it probably won’t.  We’re both busy businessmen doing business things.    

Anyway, we are rounding the corner into the home stretch of our regular season.  Only four games remain of our fake fantasy football season and we’re nearing do or die time for those teams on the bubble.  It’s starting to take shape and as we’ll dig into below, realistically there’s 5 teams competing for 4 spots and just like 5-handed, someone’s going to have to sit this one out.  So without further ado, let’s take a look at the power rankings…

 1. Ah It’s Early – Seth’s basically a shoe-in for the playoffs at this point.  He’s 8-2 with the 2^nd most points and a game left against Kyle.  But after a 6-0 start to the season, he’s been on shaky ground recently with Nuke, Jones and Edmonds banged up.  He’s got a big game this weekend against his much older brother-in-law who is on the ropes after a second-high-on-the-week points loss.  Unfortunately for Chris, the only guy who scores more in this league is Seth, if you know what we mean…

2. Play It Backwards – Mitch is also is great position to secure a spot in the playoffs.  And luckily, he won’t run into Lewis Central in this contest.  He’s sitting at 7-3 and tied for 2^nd most points.  And he’s done all this despite being bit by this year’s IR bug.  He’s currently got 7 guys on the IR and barely survived his pillow-fight with Riley last week without Kamara.  Fortunately he was given the league’s highest scoring WR this offseason in exchange for beans…not even magic beans.  He could cement his place this week by taking down Finken but he’ll have to do it without Kupp and potentially Kyler and Kamara again.  History says he’ll need to score more than 116 in this contest but who knows with Finken’s weekly output.  All we know is some poor RB is going to get saddled with 56 carries with Mitch on the headset. 

3. Fuck It Three – When you think of unlucky, you think of “the only thing that keeps me from winning this parlay is a pick-6”, not South.  But this year, it’s surprisingly South.  We all knew regression, like winter, was coming.  After losing a few high-scoring affairs earlier in the year, he’s righted the ship and is poised to make a run.  He’s scored high points the past two weeks, the most points overall, a healthy roster (outside of his lil’ Chubby) and a date with Riley and Kyle still to come.  He probably won’t claim the #1 seed most likely but there’s little doubt (jinx initiated) someone will be avoiding him the first round of the playoffs.

South after he wins out and claims the #1 seed.

4. Rollin’ 4 Deep – During Nebraska’s bye week, Finken decided to play the role of Scott Frost and lose in an inexplicable way to a bad team.  Not only has he given Abel his only win on the season, but he lost last week as a 42-point favorite against Kyle in a game that probably would’ve solidified his playoff spot.  And while his record gives him a favorable chance, he’s behind South and Chris in points and still has the 3 highest scoring teams on the schedule.  Back-to-back titles is looking about as likely as back-to-back weeks with a card night.

Finken should also fire whoever it is that sets his lineup each week.

5. If We’re Using Logic – A few weeks ago, Chris’s team looked like it was peaking at the right time after 4 straight wins and he was ready to make a title push.  But after losing to Finken and South, the momentum vanished faster than his chances in the best-ball league (seriously, go look at Lazer’s team).  However, he may still have the best odds to claim that 4^th playoff spot over Finken because after his date with Seth this weekend, he gets Abel, then Riley and then Kyle to close the season.  We’ve consulted a resident expert and that schedule is confirmed to be easier than a Lansink sister. 

6. Smells Low – Much like Chris, Riley was rolling lately after 3 wins and threatening to be relevant in the discussion as we close the season.  However, that came to a screeching halt after he couldn’t score a measly 117 to take down Mitch.  If only he would’ve put in Bateman instead of one of the garbage RBs he’s been rolling out there, he’d be sitting at 5-5 and on the brink of contention.  But at 4-6 and the 2^nd lowest points, his chances are about as good as us watching a Raiders game from the owner’s box next year for the draft.    

7. Off Suit 10s – Kyle is right where he wants to be but even better, Abel is also right where Kyle wants him to be.  Kyle’s voodoo curses and ceremonial dances have worked their magic and odds are that he’ll hold the first two picks of Round 1 and Round 2 next year.  And while he doesn’t necessarily want win any more games and solidify that, he has a chance to make sure that Lazer’s picks are top 4 as well in the last week of the season.  Let us propose a scenario.  Lazer goes into Week 14 needing a win to make the playoffs.  Kyle’s garbage team takes down Chris’s loaded roster of “best draft ever studs” and doesn’t get a shot at the title.  Where can we sign up to stream this live?    

8. I’m Out – Even getting CMC back last week didn’t make the difference.  After 9 L’s in a row, the suck continues to run deep. 

Happy Thanksgiving typewriters... 

Season 9 - Week 7

Week 7 is in the books and you know what that means…yes, not only is it time for dressing in something slutty for Halloween that your wives/girlfriends/concubines won’t appreciate, but it also marks the halfway point on our 2021 CNK regular season.  Everybody has now played everyone else and we are about to embark on our 2^nd round robin.  We’ve seen a new high all-time score by Mitch and a new all-time low points by Riley of the no K/D era.  Sadly, we’ve also seen only a handful of truly competitive games as most games are decided by late Sunday afternoon.  The average winning score is 191.51 and the average losing score is 143.98.  It’d be nice if there was a little more drama going into MNF.  Come on guys, get your shit together.

But before we got into the Power Rankings, we figured we’d reflect on the season so far and hand out a few very prestigious awards.   

-         Best Rebound – This is an easy one.  Seth finished last season 2^nd lowest in points and tied for the worst record.  But now he reigns supreme at the top of our standings.  It seemed like every move he made was the right one in acquiring Lockett, Jones, Henderson and Godwin along with drafting Harris and Waddle, not to mention getting Dak back from injury.  Turns out he didn’t even need that Etienne draft pick anyway…just like the Jaguars. 

-         Worst Offseason Trade – There are several to choose from (most involving Chris, obviously) but the winner is Cooper Kupp, who is currently the 4^th highest scoring player overall, getting moved for Tarik Cohen and a draft pick swap in Kyle’s steady dumping of his good players.  It feels like a steady WR would’ve been more valuable than a satellite RB in a rebuild situation but that’s just us.

-         Best Draft Pick – There were 56 draft picks made in Vegas and there are several that stand out.  Chris had a few hits with Chase and Pitts but those were lay ups.  There were also a few mid-round picks that were great values like Mac Jones at 3.7 or Toney at 4.1.  But in our humble opinion, the best draft pick goes to the very last pick, which was Cordarrelle Patterson.  He’s currently the 8^th ranked RB AND 14^th ranked WR on the year.  Finken even dropped him at cut time and picked him back up after Week 1 for a measly $2 FAAB bid.  Without Patterson, Finken’s season might be mirroring Scott Frost’s. 

-         Most Entertaining Week – Week 5.  Mitch posted the all-time high points score during Week 5 with 247.50 and it could’ve been better as Toney went off on his bench.  That same week, Lazer posted the 5^th all-time high points with 240.60 but sadly took Mike Williams out of his lineup just before kickoff.  No big deal, he only put up 36.5 on the bench.  It’s not like 275ish would’ve been a record that could’ve stood for years…perhaps decades.  And it’s also going to cost him $10 for the highest scoring bench player on the year.

-         Best/Worst Use of FAAB – This prize goes to Mitch for both of his $33 bids on Ty’Son Williams and Tony Jones.  It was the best as it was hilarious and created lots of consternation when he was awarded Tony Jones instead of Kyle, who also bid $33.  It’s the worst because Mitch used 2/3 of his FAAB on two now worthless back-up RBs.  We’re sure he won’t need any of that FAAB as this now longer season heads into the back stretch and Mitch fully in title contention mode. 

-         Earliest surrender – We assume Riley giving up after Week 3 counts.  The sad thing is, he waited until Week 6 to post the all-time low score of the non-kicker-or-D era. 

-         Biggest Disappointment – Oh Abel, poor Abel….

Awards are fun and all but what we’re really here for is some power rankings.  And in honor of Halloween just days away, let’s look at the power rankings thru a spooky lens of what each team is afraid of. 

1. Ah It’s Early – After winning the title in 2016, Seth has been toiling in obscurity for the past 4 years.  But he’s remade his team and come back with a vengeance like Michael Myers.  His roster is stacked and deep in most spots outside of QB.  Now, he’s got 2 of the best in his starting spots but if either (or both!) go down for a significant amount of time, he could be in more trouble than a teenage babysitter in Haddenfield, IL as  Heinecke is his only other option.  Here’s hoping Dak and Pat get all of their massages at the training facilities. 

Seth just going about his business killing other teams.

2. Play It Backwards – Mitch has been riding high this year on the backs of Brady, Kupp, Kyler and his Indianola WRs.  He’s posted the 2^nd best record and the highest points thru Week 7.  So what does he have to be scared of you ask?  He’s more terrified than the only black character in a horror movie that Benjamin Button Brady continues to get younger in Tampa or PIB’s QB situation will be just as ugly as Seth’s.  Fields is looking like he’s seeing ghosts and Miami is courting a potential felon to replace Tua.  His RBs are also looking as beat up as Abel did after a night at the Rhino and the long walk to the playoffs may be harder than it is back to the Strip.

Probably about how Abel felt on that walk.

3. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken got a much needed win against Seth to keep his record at 5-2 and ahead of Lazer and South in the playoff race.  They always say that a good defense wins championships and R4D is playing great D as he has the lowest points scored against him on the year.  Finken’s biggest fear lurking in a dark basement is his RB depth.  You can only hitch your wagon to a 30 year-old gadget player on his 5^th team for so long.  This should make Finken more nervous than a narcoleptic living on Elm St.  He may be next in line to overpay Riley or Kyle for a very average RB. 

And just like that, Finken's team could disappear from contention.

4. If We’re Using Logic – Chris’s team has really rounded into shape as a result of his Best Drafts Ever™.  After a slow start, his collection of young players have really taken off and could easily boost him into title contention.  However, most of his starters are closer in age to Brodie than himself.  The thing he needs to be more scared of than Frankenstein seeing fire for the first time is that these young whipper-snappers will start to rebel against the aging coach and tune him out.  Old Man Lazer doesn’t connect with the young’uns these days with their hip-hop music, dreadlocks and Tik-Tok videos.  He needs to make sure with his young team he doesn’t get them wet or feed them after midnight or else he’ll have a real mess on his hands. 

Chris's team is putting it together but can it function without a brain?

5. Fuck It Three – After a crazy run of success last year (until the title game J), South’s season hasn’t gone as planned and is barely on the edge of contention at this point.  But what he’s scared of is that the league is ganging up against him.  He’s scored the 2^nd most points but has had BY FAR the most points scored against him resulting in a 3-4 record.  It’s like everyone knows they need a good game to beat South so they use all their mental strength to put together a complete week against him.  Even acquiring Montgomery hasn’t helped solve his depth issues.  Maybe…just maybe, something won’t just work out for South.  However, the rest of the league may need to be more scared than a vampire at a garlic festival as he was 3-4 at this exact time a year ago. 

Will South rise from the dead like last year?

6. Smells Low – Obviously sinusitis, nasal polyps and allergies but let’s dig deeper than that.  Riley lost his first 3 matchups and threw in the Kleenex box.  After unloading Godwin, Jones and Montgomery, he’s loading up on draft capital in the next 2 years to try and equal the drafting excellence that Lazer has blueprinted recently.  But what’s scary for Riley is actually what’s scary for all of us.  If Riley hits low points and has to buy dinner, we won’t be treated to the best steak on the Vegas strip.  And that should make us all more frightened than teen campers on Friday the 13^th at Camp Crystal Lake.  We’ll all have to pool our Casey’s rewards and hijack one of Seth’s old beer trucks if we have any hope of getting a free meal at the 2022 draft. 

And with a snap of his fingers, Riley made his title hopes vanish.

7. Off Suit 10s – This season, nothing should scare Kyle.  He came into the year with his eyes wide open on what the potential was.  He knew he’d have one of the worst teams and is still trying to get worse as we speak.  And it’s playing out according to plan as he sits with the lowest points.  However, he’s snuck up and won 2 games already and is dangerously close to not making the #1 pick bowl at the end of the year.  Luckily for him, one of his other 1^st rounders is Abel’s so the king’s ransom he got for CMC might help him displace Chris’s Best Draft Ever™ in 2025…once he’s rolled all his current draft capital a few more times. 

Kyle has prepared his butthole.

8. I’m Out – Talk about the surprise of the year.  Jared was picked by some to be the top contender right there with South going into this year after acquiring CMC.  But after knocking off Finken in Week 1, he’s rattled off 6 straight losses and is sitting in the cellar of the CNK.  While he should fear giving Kyle 2 years of high draft picks, he really should be more afraid than pre-teens in Derry, ME when they see a floating red balloon that Urban Meyer is going to ruin Trevor Lawrence when Abel could’ve drafted generational talents like Chase and Pitts.  Fortunately, Jax will surely take another RB in the 1^st round of next year draft to really prop Trevor up.  

Happy Halloween!