Thursday, October 28, 2021

Season 9 - Week 7

Week 7 is in the books and you know what that means…yes, not only is it time for dressing in something slutty for Halloween that your wives/girlfriends/concubines won’t appreciate, but it also marks the halfway point on our 2021 CNK regular season.  Everybody has now played everyone else and we are about to embark on our 2nd round robin.  We’ve seen a new high all-time score by Mitch and a new all-time low points by Riley of the no K/D era.  Sadly, we’ve also seen only a handful of truly competitive games as most games are decided by late Sunday afternoon.  The average winning score is 191.51 and the average losing score is 143.98.  It’d be nice if there was a little more drama going into MNF.  Come on guys, get your shit together.


But before we got into the Power Rankings, we figured we’d reflect on the season so far and hand out a few very prestigious awards.   


-         Best Rebound – This is an easy one.  Seth finished last season 2nd lowest in points and tied for the worst record.  But now he reigns supreme at the top of our standings.  It seemed like every move he made was the right one in acquiring Lockett, Jones, Henderson and Godwin along with drafting Harris and Waddle, not to mention getting Dak back from injury.  Turns out he didn’t even need that Etienne draft pick anyway…just like the Jaguars. 

-         Worst Offseason Trade – There are several to choose from (most involving Chris, obviously) but the winner is Cooper Kupp, who is currently the 4th highest scoring player overall, getting moved for Tarik Cohen and a draft pick swap in Kyle’s steady dumping of his good players.  It feels like a steady WR would’ve been more valuable than a satellite RB in a rebuild situation but that’s just us.

-         Best Draft Pick – There were 56 draft picks made in Vegas and there are several that stand out.  Chris had a few hits with Chase and Pitts but those were lay ups.  There were also a few mid-round picks that were great values like Mac Jones at 3.7 or Toney at 4.1.  But in our humble opinion, the best draft pick goes to the very last pick, which was Cordarrelle Patterson.  He’s currently the 8th ranked RB AND 14th ranked WR on the year.  Finken even dropped him at cut time and picked him back up after Week 1 for a measly $2 FAAB bid.  Without Patterson, Finken’s season might be mirroring Scott Frost’s. 

-         Most Entertaining Week – Week 5.  Mitch posted the all-time high points score during Week 5 with 247.50 and it could’ve been better as Toney went off on his bench.  That same week, Lazer posted the 5th all-time high points with 240.60 but sadly took Mike Williams out of his lineup just before kickoff.  No big deal, he only put up 36.5 on the bench.  It’s not like 275ish would’ve been a record that could’ve stood for years…perhaps decades.  And it’s also going to cost him $10 for the highest scoring bench player on the year.

-         Best/Worst Use of FAAB – This prize goes to Mitch for both of his $33 bids on Ty’Son Williams and Tony Jones.  It was the best as it was hilarious and created lots of consternation when he was awarded Tony Jones instead of Kyle, who also bid $33.  It’s the worst because Mitch used 2/3 of his FAAB on two now worthless back-up RBs.  We’re sure he won’t need any of that FAAB as this now longer season heads into the back stretch and Mitch fully in title contention mode. 

-         Earliest surrender – We assume Riley giving up after Week 3 counts.  The sad thing is, he waited until Week 6 to post the all-time low score of the non-kicker-or-D era. 

-         Biggest Disappointment – Oh Abel, poor Abel….


Awards are fun and all but what we’re really here for is some power rankings.  And in honor of Halloween just days away, let’s look at the power rankings thru a spooky lens of what each team is afraid of. 

1. Ah It’s Early – After winning the title in 2016, Seth has been toiling in obscurity for the past 4 years.  But he’s remade his team and come back with a vengeance like Michael Myers.  His roster is stacked and deep in most spots outside of QB.  Now, he’s got 2 of the best in his starting spots but if either (or both!) go down for a significant amount of time, he could be in more trouble than a teenage babysitter in Haddenfield, IL as  Heinecke is his only other option.  Here’s hoping Dak and Pat get all of their massages at the training facilities. 

Seth just going about his business killing other teams.


2. Play It Backwards – Mitch has been riding high this year on the backs of Brady, Kupp, Kyler and his Indianola WRs.  He’s posted the 2nd best record and the highest points thru Week 7.  So what does he have to be scared of you ask?  He’s more terrified than the only black character in a horror movie that Benjamin Button Brady continues to get younger in Tampa or PIB’s QB situation will be just as ugly as Seth’s.  Fields is looking like he’s seeing ghosts and Miami is courting a potential felon to replace Tua.  His RBs are also looking as beat up as Abel did after a night at the Rhino and the long walk to the playoffs may be harder than it is back to the Strip.


Probably about how Abel felt on that walk.

3. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken got a much needed win against Seth to keep his record at 5-2 and ahead of Lazer and South in the playoff race.  They always say that a good defense wins championships and R4D is playing great D as he has the lowest points scored against him on the year.  Finken’s biggest fear lurking in a dark basement is his RB depth.  You can only hitch your wagon to a 30 year-old gadget player on his 5th team for so long.  This should make Finken more nervous than a narcoleptic living on Elm St.  He may be next in line to overpay Riley or Kyle for a very average RB. 


And just like that, Finken's team could disappear from contention.

4. If We’re Using Logic – Chris’s team has really rounded into shape as a result of his Best Drafts Ever™.  After a slow start, his collection of young players have really taken off and could easily boost him into title contention.  However, most of his starters are closer in age to Brodie than himself.  The thing he needs to be more scared of than Frankenstein seeing fire for the first time is that these young whipper-snappers will start to rebel against the aging coach and tune him out.  Old Man Lazer doesn’t connect with the young’uns these days with their hip-hop music, dreadlocks and Tik-Tok videos.  He needs to make sure with his young team he doesn’t get them wet or feed them after midnight or else he’ll have a real mess on his hands. 


Chris's team is putting it together but can it function without a brain?

5. Fuck It Three – After a crazy run of success last year (until the title game J), South’s season hasn’t gone as planned and is barely on the edge of contention at this point.  But what he’s scared of is that the league is ganging up against him.  He’s scored the 2nd most points but has had BY FAR the most points scored against him resulting in a 3-4 record.  It’s like everyone knows they need a good game to beat South so they use all their mental strength to put together a complete week against him.  Even acquiring Montgomery hasn’t helped solve his depth issues.  Maybe…just maybe, something won’t just work out for South.  However, the rest of the league may need to be more scared than a vampire at a garlic festival as he was 3-4 at this exact time a year ago. 


Will South rise from the dead like last year?

6. Smells Low – Obviously sinusitis, nasal polyps and allergies but let’s dig deeper than that.  Riley lost his first 3 matchups and threw in the Kleenex box.  After unloading Godwin, Jones and Montgomery, he’s loading up on draft capital in the next 2 years to try and equal the drafting excellence that Lazer has blueprinted recently.  But what’s scary for Riley is actually what’s scary for all of us.  If Riley hits low points and has to buy dinner, we won’t be treated to the best steak on the Vegas strip.  And that should make us all more frightened than teen campers on Friday the 13th at Camp Crystal Lake.  We’ll all have to pool our Casey’s rewards and hijack one of Seth’s old beer trucks if we have any hope of getting a free meal at the 2022 draft. 


And with a snap of his fingers, Riley made his title hopes vanish.

7. Off Suit 10s – This season, nothing should scare Kyle.  He came into the year with his eyes wide open on what the potential was.  He knew he’d have one of the worst teams and is still trying to get worse as we speak.  And it’s playing out according to plan as he sits with the lowest points.  However, he’s snuck up and won 2 games already and is dangerously close to not making the #1 pick bowl at the end of the year.  Luckily for him, one of his other 1st rounders is Abel’s so the king’s ransom he got for CMC might help him displace Chris’s Best Draft Ever™ in 2025…once he’s rolled all his current draft capital a few more times. 


Kyle has prepared his butthole.

8. I’m Out – Talk about the surprise of the year.  Jared was picked by some to be the top contender right there with South going into this year after acquiring CMC.  But after knocking off Finken in Week 1, he’s rattled off 6 straight losses and is sitting in the cellar of the CNK.  While he should fear giving Kyle 2 years of high draft picks, he really should be more afraid than pre-teens in Derry, ME when they see a floating red balloon that Urban Meyer is going to ruin Trevor Lawrence when Abel could’ve drafted generational talents like Chase and Pitts.  Fortunately, Jax will surely take another RB in the 1st round of next year draft to really prop Trevor up.  


Happy Halloween!


Thursday, September 30, 2021

Season 9 - Week 3

Week 3 is in the books and we’re back to check in on the Card Night Kangs.  After an odd Week 1, the next two weeks have provided a little more clarity on our league this year.  It’s still wide open as it seems like there’s 6 teams that could beat about anyone on any given weekend.  However, the race for #1 pick is also taking shape.  Not to spoil the rankings below but it seems like Kyle and Riley might as well start researching for the draft and saving up for our dinner.  

But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves.  There’s so much season left to enjoy.  So without further ado, let’s get on with the Power Rankings…

1. Ah It’s Early – After posting 200+ in each of the first two games, Seth pulled out a lower scoring game against Abel in order to stay undefeated and at the top of our rankings.  His QBs came thru as usual but this week it was the #1 rookie pick catching more balls than Riley at an orgy saving his bacon after Gronk and his WRs decided to not score TDs in bunches.  His perfect record is projected to extend past this weekend as he faces his wife’s brother.  And we all know Seth has a proven record of slaying Lansink’s over the weekends. 

2. Play It backwards – Mitch also sits with a perfect record and has actually been the most consistent team so far posting around 200 each week.  He hasn’t really needed that so far as he’s faced the dregs of the league but the competition gets stepped up this week against Finken and then South and Seth.  Kyler and Brady have been great each week and Kupp is the fantasy MVP so far.  That’s good for Mitch because tied for Fantasy LeastVP is between his other two QBs, Tua and Fields.  Yikes…



3. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Like his Eagles QB said after the Dallas game, Finken flushed the Week 1 turd by winning the last two over Lazer and Kyle.  And while the wins count the same, he has yet to hit his projected point total for any week.  It’s almost the opposite of his Huskers.  Nebraska is probably a better team than they’ve shown but they’ve pissed 3 games down their legs with stupid mistakes.  On the contrary, his R4D roster can’t put a solid week together but has fallen into winning the past few weeks.  We’re not worried, though, as we’re sure Hines or Patterson will fill in admirably when called upon. 


4. I’m Out – After beating the defending champ in Week 1, Abel got unlucky last week losing by a fraction to South.  And then he gets beat by Seth in Week 3 mainly because CMC and Shepard both went out early with injuries.  He’ll be praying that McCaffrey won’t be out for too long but if there’s a 3 week stretch to be without him, having Riley-Lazer-Kyle coming up isn’t the worst time for it to happen.  Luckily he had the foresight to grab Hubbard in the draft and got ODBag back from injury.  That’s the best foresight Abel has had since grabbing 2 extra cases of Busch Light for that dirt road party next to the Jensen 40 back in high school….knew that keg was going to run dry. 


5. If We’re Using Logic – Chris finally got one in the win column against South after a rough start to the season.  Josh Allen finally broke out but the victory was mainly due to the “Devonte Parker Memorial 5th Year Breakout Player” award winner for 2021…Mike Williams.  He’s finally healthy and seeing a ridiculous stream of targets.  Unfortunately for Chris, it came at the expense of his Chiefs this weekend.  Much like Andy Reid, Chris almost had a heart attack when he saw that the Bills put up 43 points.  Fortunately for Chris, Allen’s 41 points weren’t heavily shared with Diggs.  And while Mahomes will get their ship righted and probably make the Super Bowl again, Lazer still has some work to do if he’s going to make a run.  That work mostly involves playing his players that score lots of points and not playing his players that do not score lots of points. 


Chris trying to set his lineup each week.

6. Fuck It Three – In all reality, South should be 0-3, which would’ve been a shock to everyone.  Abel would’ve given at least 5-to-1 odds on that happening.  If the super mediocre CEH doesn’t get the ball knocked out, (which meant Lamar got to pad his stats a bit in sealing that victory) that’s where South is sitting right now.  But he’s Garrett and the universe had other plans.  However, that doesn’t mean the Power Rankings have to abide.  We call them like we see them.  So South must be ranked behind the teams he just lost to (or should’ve).  Now if he loses this week to Kyle…oh man, there’s not enough Skittles or Mtn Dew in MN to drown his sorrows. 

Come on South, just eat it for a year.


7. Off Suit 10s – This is more of what we expected from Kyle this year.  After a surprising Week 1 victory, Lehman’s team has come back to Earth like a North Korea missile test.  He only managed 118 in Week 2 and barely broke 90 last week.  More than half of that was just from his QBs.  He did leave a bunch of points on the bench though and it’s being speculated that obviously tanking is involved.  But with the roster he’s got, it’d be tough to accuse him of anything but tanking. 


Kyle trying to rebuild his team next year with 2nd round picks.

8. Smells Low – Our only winless team has already waived the white flag and offered to trade away for younger pieces or draft capital.  But he doesn’t want to give up any good players or his own capital so…


Which brings us to….

Hot Take Trade Analysis

South gets David Montgomery, Jared Goff, a 2022 5th and 6th and a 2023 4th

Riley gets Mac Jones, Kenneth Gainwell, and a 2022 3rd (Kyle) and a 2023 1st

Garrett bolsters his surprisingly shallow roster with another solid RB in his quest for another 2nd place finish.  Montgomery isn’t sexy but he’s the workhorse of the team and won’t do Riley any good in a year or two.  And Goff could win the “Bortles Garbage Time QB of the Year” award this season.  Riley gets two young pieces and a few decent draft picks.  Mac Jones could be decent but has a ceiling of QB 15 most likely.  Gainewell could be a usable PPR RB but probably won’t ever have true RB1 potential.  The real value here is the draft picks which the 3rd should be either Pick 17 or 18 next year and nabbing his third 1st rounder in 2023.  Riley is setting himself up to take on Lazer’s best draft ever™ in a few years. 

We say South probably wins the trade but Riley gets what he wants after throwing in the towel after 3 weeks.  Good job gents...

Thursday, September 16, 2021

Season 9 - Week 1

Gentlemen, football is back!  Which also means our beloved Card Night Kangs are back for our 9th season to fill that empty space in our lives that should be filled with family, joy and all things wholesome.  Those things can wait until next March.  With COVID 100% eradicated and behind us (if it ever existed in the first place), we move on with our lives and just enjoy a bunch of barbarians smashing into each other for our entertainment. 

There are so many storylines going into the season so let’s take a look at just a couple.  Finken is our reigning champion for the second time after a miraculous playoff run with Tony Pollard, JD McKissic and Jeff Wilson.  South dominated last year’s regular season and is the heavy favorite to be let down by his team in the playoffs as usual.  Abel and Seth both reshaped their rosters in the offseason adding some big name talent that they hope to propel them into contention.  Mitch sneakily filled a few of his roster holes and Chris had the self-proclaimed 2nd greatest draft of all time in his quest to rebuild.  Nobody really knows what Riley is up to, and finally Kyle not only sold off most of his key players to start his own rebuild project, he demolished the structure and lit the rubble on fire and pissed on the ashes. 

With all that, it lines up to be quite an entertaining year.  So let us rejoice and cherish these 17 weeks ahead of us because before too long, it will be over and we be left with only sparsely attended card nights in the dead of winter.  But before that, let’s take a look at the return of the power rankings…

 

1. Off Suit 10s – Everyone who set the over/under on wins for Kyle on the season at 1.5 (ourselves included) is eating crow this week.  After completely demoing his team and punting on the 2021 draft for 2022, Kyle was expected to struggle mightily and barely be competitive.  However, he showed all of us by storming out of the gate and upsetting Riley in Week 1.  Now, is 160 about his ceiling every week?  Probably, but will he average around 125 for the season?  Most likely.  Hurts and Cory Davis look solid, but after that, it’s hard to envision Kyle winning more than a few more games with less potential for scoring than Abel in a strip club.  So here you go Kyle, enjoy being in the top spot while it lasts.  Because it’s #1 pick or bust. 


Kyle sucks us all in, and then he just sucks the rest of the year.

2. Ah It’s Early – Seth must’ve been revisiting the pic of Garrett draped in Cyclone silk on his bed because he blew his load all over the scarfed bandit in Week 1, posting the 6th highest score of all time.  Revenge was finally his.  Seth got off to a huge start on Thursday with the Amari-Dak stack and TB12 was able to find Gronk and Godwin like they were the last two picked at the county hide-and-seek tournament. However, no lead is safe with South on your ass.  Seth had to sweat out Lamar (like South sweats out mild wing night) on MNF after his new acquisitions of Harris and Jones failed to live up to the hype.  Winning Week 1 with high points no doubt meant Seth was celebrating into Tuesday morning on those Cyclone sheets with Chris’s sister. 


Seth is coming for all of us this year.

3. Play It Backwards – Mitch hoped to open the season being able to translate his recent success on the high school football field (now that he’s playing a bunch of pee-wee programs in Class 4) to the CNK gridiron.  Luckily, he was going against another coach who barely keeps his head above water in pee-wee football.  Old Balls Brady came out firing to AB on Thursday while Kyler might have taken the next leap into Mahomes territory, which allowed Mitch to coast to an easy victory over Lansink.  He was nervous coming into the season after losing Irv and Dobbins for the season and MT for the first stretch.  Fortunately he rigged the waiver wire to grab both sought after RBs at $33 apiece. #NeverForget$32


We call BS, this shit is rigged.


4. I’m Out – Abel’s rebuilt roster had a date with the champ in Week 1 and he left no doubt in anyone’s mind that he’s a contender.  They say to be the best, you’ve got the beat the best.  Well we’re not sure if that really applies here after the sorry effort Finken trotted out there but Abel’s here to compete in 2021.  CMC was back to his normal self, Thielen caught a few TDs, TLaw lived up to the hype (if you don’t count the terrible picks or horrendous coaching) and Jameis was out there eating Ws.  No matter what happens, between his performance in Vegas (which let exactly zero people down) and Week 1, this season’s already been a success for Jared.


Abel waking up every morning this week.


5. Fuck it Three – Well Garrett picked right back up where he left off last season (well, before the title game at least…) and that should terrify the rest of the league.  As a reminder, he posted high points 8 straight weeks to close the regular season.  In the offseason, he bolstered his QB issue by grabbing Stafford and two rookies after Watson was, let’s say, massaged out of the equation.  He’s got a replacement for Kelce in Hockenson and can still roll out a deep stable of RBs.  However, the one chink in his armor may be WR if Aiyuk doesn’t live up to the hype and Samuel and Jeudy stay sidelined.  The only thing that could stand in his way for a 8th straight playoff run is going on a Skittles bender on his 7th trip to Vegas this fall and forgetting to set his lineup.

Sadly, this is probably a normal dinner for South so his tolerance is unbeatable.


6. If We’re Using Logic – Chris had another draft that he wouldn’t shut up about as he grabbed Pitts, Chase and Lance to go with his stable of horses from last year.  And let’s check on how it went for him in Week 1….  


            To be fair (to be fair…), we’re all sure that he’s currently got no less than 12 HOFers (i.e. Doug Baldwin) on his roster but it might take another year or two before he can rattle off another 5 titles in 3 years.  Plus, he’s got to actually start the good players instead of the not good ones.  There were about 9 guys who could’ve boosted his score this week riding the pine, including all 3 of his 4th round TEs.  With Pittman in his Week 1 lineup, we can only assume that he’s tanking one more year to assure that his first pick in the draft is in the top half of round 3.  There’s a couple guys he’s already got his eye on that probably won’t be there by pick 20. 


Chris usually is 4 steps ahead.

7. Smells Low – Speaking of Lansink’s TEs, we come to Riley, who’s lucky this week not to be in the bottom slot after dropping the opening game to the FCS team you’re supposed to get your backups reps to.  Riley was happy enough with his RB depth to trade away Aaron Jones to Seth.  But now all the sudden, Mostert is hurt (as usual), RoJo fumbled on his 3rd carry and got benched and Zach Moss wasn’t even active on gameday.  Javonte had better live up to the hype or his flex positions are only going to be relevant in his truck bed/camper/house/condo/apartment.  


Riley trying to get a girl to come home with him.


8. Rollin’ 4 Deep – Finken had 6 big-name guys score in the single digits and only Waller on MNF kept him from posting an all-time low score in the no D/K era.  So much for defending the title.  This must be what Scott Frost feels like on a weekly basis.  Pathetic. 



Tuesday, July 13, 2021

2021 Draft Recap and Predictions

The lights, the sounds, electricity in the air, a renewed sense of purpose… pure magic.  Of course, I’m speaking of my draft; I guess Vegas was pretty cool too.  Before I start my way too early predictions, I have to give Southy one more shout out for organizing a fantastic itinerary with a little bit for everyone.  Another huge thank you to Kyle for a delicious dinner that went way above and beyond.  Feel free to go with KFC next year to reset the bar for future dinner buyers.

Looking back to look ahead…. So I nailed the Championship bracket PERFECTLY. The shuffle of the Consolation bracket boiled down to the injury luck and my eternal modesty (I think we all knew I wasn’t coming in last with my sweet draft last year).  Finken’s run was both epic and impressive on many levels. Personally, I’m glad that the Julio trade paid off with a ‘ship.  Abel breaking into the championship bracket was a win for the whole league; welcome to the club, buddy.  And while I couldn’t have foreseen the CMC injury, Kyle’s last place finish could’ve been predicted based on the rest of that roster.

 2020 Prediction

Position

Predicted

Actual

1

Aaron

Aaron

2

Southy

Southy

3

Mitch

Mitch

4

Abel

Abel

5

Kyle

Chris

6

Seth

Riley

7

Riley

Seth

8

Chris

Kyle

 

You guys should really listen to me.

Now, your 2021 predictions...

 

Definitely not “Who Cares Territory” 

 #8 Off Suit 10’s - 

In fairness to Kyle, he wisely tore this one down to the studs.  Everything that was worth anything hit the trade block, including this year’s 1st rounders.  While I initially questioned punting everything to next year, his draft positions left him a RB and some WRs he didn’t particularly like.  I get not starting a rebuild with those players.  It seems like he has a plan, which should terrify anyone who’s been his partner after a 4 bid.  It will be interesting to see how quickly he can construct a contender after 2022.  

Strengths

Kyle has a great head of hair, a lovely family, and strong Winterset roots.  In terms of fake football teams, I think Kyle might be more interested in the second fantasy league this year than he has been the past few years.  Clearly he has amassed some prime draft capital for next year.  If he can parley some of those picks into some young players to jump start the process, he might outpace the dreaded “half decade of irrelevance”.  If there are 2 things you can count on Kyle for, it’s probably parleys and trades.

Weaknesses

Strip clubs and the fact that he has to set a starting lineup each week.  Also, the likelihood of winning any weekly payouts. Kyle’s win total in both categories for 2021-   O/U  .5 

Wild Cards

Rondale Moore has the early breakout production in college that had him as the projected 1.1 a few years back.  If he can return to 2018 form and avoid being folded up like a lawn chair, he could develop into a regular starter in a high scoring offense. Christian Kirk needs to take the year 3 jump into WR relevance.  He has had some flashes but needs to put it all together.  Downside: both play in the same offense where half the targets go to Nuke anyway so it is unlikely both will break out.

Kyle’s most intriguing position is probably QB.  Hurts is the definition of a wildcard, immense rushing upside but everything else is a huge question mark.  In a somewhat curious trade, Kyle acquired Baker from Finken; his finish to the 2020 season gives some hope that he might be a solid QB for the foreseeable future.

 


** Disclaimer, while I’m separating the remaining teams into 3 Tiers, this is probably the most competitive field we’ve had in years.

Tier 3 

#7 Ah, It’s Early – 

Well, well, well…. A few weeks ago, Seth had (probably) one viable starting running back on his roster.  After a little draft magic, he has seemingly rebuilt his RB stable with youth and talent.  The great decider harnessed his inner Kyle and made the first two big trades of the draft.  Essentially trading away Sutton and two 2nds to get Etiene, Edmonds, Mooney and a handful of dart throws.  I’m pronouncing Seth the winner of the draft and should celebrate by fornicating with my sister.  At this rate, he may reclaim his 5th place throne in no time. 

Strengths

Spidermaning up rock walls and picking awesome inlaws.  On the fantasy front, AIE has the best starting QB duo in the league; his young gunslingers should give him a 10-20 point positional advantage most every week.  Post trades, the RB weakness has the potential to become a strength.  Pairing the projected workhorse output of Akers and Harris with the PPR upside of Etiene and Edmonds should form a solid point floor each week

Weaknesses

TE remains thinner than his neckbeard.  AIE is counting on a breakout from Firkser, Hooper, or Shultz (or an improbable Gronk run).  Without that, he will likely be giving up whatever QB edge he built back to any of the playoff teams at the TE position.

Additionally, depth is a concern (his fantasy team also has few backups to utilize).  Come bye weeks, AIE will be counting on Robby Anderson, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, or AJ Dillon to fill in.  Any injuries to skill players will make it difficult to compete week in and week out.

Wild Cards

Waddle, Marshall, and Mooney provide some intriguing upside.  While it is hard to predict any of them jumping into relevant roles this year, they are some nice lottery tickets. If DHop is on the roster after the trade deadline, there is a good chance AIW is still in the playoff hunt.

 

Seth looking at his roster post-draft.  

#6 Smells Low –

This roster is an interesting one.  While Riley was probably one of the most QB needy teams, he was left without a rookie QB after passing over several opportunities to snag one.  He’s banking on a Wentz reboot, Jimmy to hold on against Lance or Taysom winning the job in New Orleans to solidify his QB2 job and give him a sniff at the playoffs. 

Strengths

Can convince women that sleeping in the back of a pickup is closer to tiny house life than homelessness.  Additionally, Riley is a fantastic Beta (I think I’m using that right) and really nose how to use those fancy rock wall ballet shoes.  His fake sportsing strength is RB Depth; while I don’t particularly see a guaranteed RB1 on this roster, Smells Low should have options when it comes to setting his lineup.  With some pairing of early season work (Gaskin) and late season relevance (Williams), Riley should be able to fill his starting lineup with consistent (if not game breaking) RB scores. Kittle won the tiebreaker for this tier.  Having a top 4 TE (ask me who the other 3 are…) when healthy is huge for Smells Low’s playoff hopes.

Weaknesses

Irregular showers and the end of mask mandates to cover his nose. As for Smells Low, WR will likely be the achilles heel of this roster.  Trading away Ridley last offseason has really limited his options in the passing game.  While ScaryTerry will likely eat, Godwin, Higgins, and Boyd look more like table scraps playing second (or third) fiddle in crowded offenses.  This inconsistency will likely lead to some boom or bust weeks.  My money is on more busts than he found at the Rhino.  As mentioned before, QB2 is still up in the air.  I think the best shot is for Wentz to regain his MVP form now that he is reunited with Reich (also, that would really help my Pittman and Campbell stonks).

Wild Cards

If Shenault, Bateman, or Mostert can earn weekly startworthy status, Riley may have something here.  Talk out of camps on Shenault and Bateman are positive.  Mostert was a monster in the 49ers run game when healthy but many have already written the veteran RB off as they make way for Sermon.  

 


Tier 2 

#5 Play It Backwards

My how the turntables have turned.  Mitch’s window seems to be shrinking. PIB is hoping that Brady can keep it propped open and hold back father time just long enough for either Fields or Tua to establish themselves in the fantasy world.  Truth be told, Mitch has a championship caliber roster based on name recognition but (literally) every name in his starting lineup has more question marks than his students after he explains integers.  Adams needs Rodgers to come back and the Saints offense needs to find an answer at QB that doesn’t tank the value of Kamara or Thomas (or both).

Strengths

Capable of growing an impressive Covid beard and running teenage RBs into the ground.  As for pretend dynasty leagues, PIB has a well balanced roster and is built to withstand some injuries to either the RB or WR corp if they arise.  Kamara and Adams* still feel like they have week-winning potential but Dobbins and/or Gibson will need to build on last season’s promising start to make PIB a real contender.

Weaknesses

Driving and saying no to equestrian endeavors.  From a team standpoint, the WR star power from 2 seasons ago has dimmed while DJ Moore is still hoping to make that jump to elite status.  What keeps PIB on the lower rung of competitive status is the lack of an elite TE.  Outside of the #StatCorrectionChamp, no league winner has done so without elite TE production.  But seriously….driving.

Wild Cards

PIB desperately needs Irv Smith to make the leap this year; rolling out Hunter Henry each week is going to be more problematic than Finken passing a drug test.  Can Antonio Brown continue on the 18.5 PPG pace he set over the last 6 regular season games (against weak defenses) or will he be the 9.3 PPG guy he was in the playoffs against better competition?  Lastly, the effectiveness of the Saints offense will go a long way to determine the fate of PIB this year. For Mitch’s sake, Winston better win the job outright in training camp.

 


#4 If We’re Using Logic

While some might argue that this prediction is a year premature, IWUL challenged for a playoff spot last year with some untimely injuries and suspensions **cough**Will Fuller**cough** that derailed his chances late.  The Best Draft Ever ™ led to an electric rookie season for some key contributors.  Most experts project better production in their 2nd year.  With modest growth and early contributions from the 2021 class, this roster looks young and hungrier than Abel passing a Chick-fil-a at 2am.

Strengths

Offering fair and mutually beneficial trade offers to leaguemates and drafting like a boss.  As for the roster, it’s littered with young talent with incredible upside.  Taylor looks to take hold as the workhorse back in Indy while Swift and CEH offer game winning PPR potential from the RB slot.  Hunt and Carter should be nice depth and bye week fillers with league winning talent if they find themselves with primary backfield duty.

Weaknesses

Insufferable modesty and a lack of dynasty research/family life balance (also rock climbing apparently).  As for IWUL, the only real weakness here is the unproven talent.  A hot start last year made roster decisions easy but finding the right lineup combo was more difficult the second half of the season.  Knowing which player will pop off each week is harder than deciphering the 7th grade defenses I’m used to facing.

Wild Cards

With Pittman, Williams, Campbell, and Hardman are primed for breakout seasons.  If 1-2 of them can develop into consistent weapons, this is a roster the #1 seed should be scared to pick come playoff time.  A Sophomore Slump or Sophomore Jump will likely determine the fate of this team.  Or in Mike Williams cace, a super-senior jump.

  

As I've told all of you, pretty self-explanatory.

Tier 1 

#3 Rolling Four Deep

Congrats to our reigning champ and the second league member to reach the 2 ‘Ship status (although not back to back...just sayin’).  R4D rolled through the playoffs like Husker fans roll through Scott Frost rationalizations.  Fink’s roster is more than top heavy enough to repeat but we are starting to see some cracks in the armor as his key players age without young talent to backfill.  For the picks R4D held in the draft, I think he made the most of it. Drafting Fitz and some key backup RB’s was clutch as counting on Jeff Wilson and Pollard to win playoff games might not work twice. On the flip side, I would question paying up for a luxury pick in DeVonta Smith when QB and RB depth are much more serious concerns.

Strengths

Immense willpower in a city where literally everything is legal and being trustworthy enough to be everyone’s emergency contact. As for owning pretend NFL players, his roster is littered with game winners and he has plenty of WR depth. If Rodgers returns to GB and everyone can kiss and make up, he has positional advantages at QB and TE most weeks as well if Gruden keeps feeding Waller.

Weaknesses

Bidding when he is my pitch partner and insisting on being Mitch’s big spoon.  As for R4D, RB depth is sketchy at best.  I think for most fantasy players, Saquon and Zek have lost a little luster over the past year.  To reach the top of the mountain again, Sermon needs to take hold in SF and Rodgers needs to repeat 2020 on the field and not on Jeopardy.

Wild Cards

Is there enough passing volume in Tenn for AJ and Julio to thrive?  With few other pass catchers, I would guess that one is a top 10 WR while the other is top 15.  If Derrick Henry gets 300 touches again and the 2 WR cannibalize (*not canibus) each other, it could be tough to have both in the starting lineup each week.

Wait, Finken took another WR after trading away Mayfield?!?!


#2 I’m Out

Cue the Manilow, “Looks like we made it...” With the acquisition of CMC, I’m Out brings a scary RB duo to the table each week. Assuming CMC returns to his 30+ point per week form, I’m Out can stand toe to toe with anyone in the league. With some other holes to fill, being active on the waiver wire will be essential to not squander the assets he has amassed.

Strengths

Unnecessarily picking up tabs and taking blackjack coaching from dealers, friends, and strangers. From a roster construction standpoint, the addition of elderly receivers like OBJ, Theilan, and Keenan Allen to pair with nice drafts of Metcalf and Claypool have really formed a solid starting lineup. Spending big draft capital on Henry and CMC would likely not have been enough without these pieces.

Weaknesses

Still lacks basic understanding of FAAB usage, long walks on the strip, and holding in his breakfast on the way to the airport. Although this roster is a strong contender, the QB slots (plural) are a big concern. Lawrence needs to become Herbert 2.0 in his first season and Winston’s Lasik surgery needs to earn him the job in NO.  Lack of depth will make the bye weeks and injuries problematic. It will take a clean run and at least mediocre QB play to compete.

**Seriously though, waiver wire

Wild Cards

If Henry can stand up to the pounding of another 300+ touch season, IO should be fine. If he breaks down, there is trouble on the horizon. Ertz eventually leaving Philly to make room for Goedert, an OBJ renaissance and a nice Damien Harris breakout would go a long way to make this an easier championship run. We all know that anything can happen once you are in the playoffs; avoiding Southy the first round will be key (and again, utilizing the waiver wire)

Abel always said, give him almost a decade and he'll compete.


#1 – F It 3

F It 3 definitely rolled over the rest of the league last season. Unfortunately, the roster picked the worst time to have a so-so week (by Southy standards) and failed to complete the elusive back to back championship run. Although he didn’t have a pick higher than a 3rd rounder leading up to the draft, he was able to jump in front of Fink to grab Zach Wilson and Mac Jones (both of which are now certainly bound for NFL stardom) and walked away with my second favorite receiver in this draft (Elijah Moore). Overall, good sneaking out of our favorite serial killer.

Strengths

Having deep enough pockets to just double his bets until he wins and planning awesome destination trips from 1700 miles away (by running 6 scouting missions in the past year). FI3 has the most players who can win any given week and some up-and-comers in the wings. With a good balance of established and young talent, Garrett has truly crafted a dynasty team **cough**jinx**cough**.

Weaknesses

Splitting 6’s vs a face card and inviting much less capable climbers to share his adventures. FI3 does run into some potential problems with his last Flex spot and bye week depth. Southy is banking on Hockenson to be his second starting TE or James Robinson to hold similar value in that spot.

Wild Cards

I’m sure Southy’s people are talking with the NFL about Desean Watson’s future (just like they did when Tyreek avoided suspension). If he is fully reinstated and lands in the right spot (Dear God, not Denver) that could seal the deal on a title run. Similarly a Jeudy or Moore breakout could fill the bye weeks nicely.

 

South laughing at the rest of us and our roster issues.


 

Just for fun, here is roster construction if you utilized current ADP for our league. Good luck Kyle...


# Players in Each Round by ADP

Kyle

Seth

Riley

Mitch

Chris

Aaron

Jared

Garrett

1

0

0

0

1

1

2

2

2

2

0

2

2

1

0

0

0

3

3

0

1

0

1

2

2

1

1

4

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

1

5

0

0

2

0

1

3

2

0

6

0

1

2

1

3

0

0

1

7

1

1

1

1

1

0

2

1

8

0

3

0

0

0

3

0

2

9

0

1

3

1

1

1

1

0

10

2

0

1

2

0

1

2

0

11

2

1

1

1

1

2

0

0

12

1

1

0

2

1

1

1

1

13

2

1

1

0

1

2

0

1

14

0

3

0

0

1

3

1

0

15

0

0

2

3

0

2

1

0