Season 7 - Week 7

Week 7 is in the books and that means we have reached the mid-point in our 7^th season of the Card Night Kangs.  No one has either taken a commanding lead or fallen too far behind as we have two teams at each win plateau between 2 and 5 wins.  Even the points aren’t drastically different from top to bottom.  And even with removing K and D, scoring haven’t changed dramatically.  As you’ll see below, points are up historically but actually lower than last year.  We’ve averaged about 4.3 200-point games per year in the previous 6 years but have already had 5 thru 7 weeks.  So the highs are definitely higher but there are dramatic swings in volatility that come with those extra two starting spots. 

Season	Total Points	Points per Week
2019	8,821.36	157.52
2018	17,736.82	158.36
2017	15,728.46	140.43
2016	16,364.66	146.11
2015	16,320.16	145.72
2014	16,932.53	151.18
2013	16,720.54	149.29

But as the 2^nd half begins with all of us technically still alive for the playoffs, enjoy each weekend, as it will soon enough be gone from our lives like Seth’s hairline or Chris’s youth.  And now, on with the power rankings….

1.       Fuck It Three – Kyle may technically be atop the standings in Yahoo but it’s only because of a 2-point tiebreaker.  Both teams have the same record and South easily came out victorious in their Week 4 battle.  Garrett has won 4 out of his last 5 after smacking Riley right in the nose last week.  Although Kerryon is now banged up and Kelce and Tyreeeeek need to be downgraded ever-so-slightly because of the Mahomies injury, he’s still got the most non-QB depth in the league.  When reached for comment, Annie had a different opinion. 

Honey, let's keep that on the down-low.

2.       Off Suit 10s – Despite all of the doubters, Kyle has to be considered the co-favorite to make the title game at this midway point.  He got just enough from Edelman on MNF to close the deal over Lazer like it was a 40’ RV with three pop-outs.  With Gurley, CMC, Fournette and Michel looking solid each week and a deep stable of WR 2s, his prospects for another title are certainly better than a normal 3 bid from him.  He also solidified his TE spot with Engram in place of a very disappointing Ertz.  The 2^nd QB spot will remain a dice roll each week even if $cam comes back.  Having Carr as your QB2 is about as risky as riding with Mitch in moderate-to-light traffic. 

How Kyle's envisioning the 2nd half of the season going.

3.       Play It Backwards – Mitch is in the 5-2 club as well right?  I mean, all he had to do was beat Abel.  As it turns out, PIB needed just a little more help from Tom Terrific on MNF.  But the Pats did what Waukee did to Indianola last weekend which barely required Brady to take the field.  Coach Curtis gets the Caesar of the Week award as either of the QBs on his bench substituted for his starters would’ve given him the victory.  He gets his chance at revenge this coming week against his Waukee rival Coach Lansink.  While Kamara and Adams are expected back soon, Mitch is hoping his varsity players and big-league coordinating experience fares well against Lazer’s middle school squad and his Crayola-coordinated game plans. 

Mitch getting ready for his matchup with Lazer.

4.       Smells Low – Riley was just starting to stick his nose into contention after 3 straight wins when he absolutely crapped the bed with a sub 90 total against South.  Similar to his wrestling ability, it was actually pretty impressive from an awfulness standpoint.  Burkleton has 30 guys on his Grindr app CNK roster and only 3 were on bye.  Out of those 30 guys, only 5 managed to put up double digits.  A closer examination of his wins were against the 3 worst teams so far this year as well.  To be fair, that explains a lot about his dating life…

Pretty much a summation of Riley's roster last week.

5.       Rollin’ 4 Deep – After just a nightmare start to his stat-correction title defense of 3 straight losses, Finken began quietly turning his season around a few weeks ago.  He’s now won 3 of the last 4 and did to Seth what the Gophers recently did to his Huskers.  Scoring 160+ in 5 of the last 6 and posting over 200 last week leaves Finken primed for the stretch run and it starts with getting revenge against Abel in Week 8.  He’ll have to be on his game though, as Abel’s looking to extend his longest winning streak in (probably) decades.

Finken is coming back but it looks like the Huskers are not.

6.       Ah It’s Early – Seth began the year on fire almost assuring that the trophy would be hanging above his bed giving him something additional to gaze upon while he’s, well…you know.  But after 3 straight losses, he’s fighting just to stay in the conversation.  And now Mahomies is hurt and he gets to face South without Dak or Amari.  That means he’s relying on Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers at QB this week.  That’s bad enough to make us think Melvin Gordon might voluntarily hold out of this matchup as well.  He’s made some odd roster moves and Seth must be holding onto 210 lbs. Gronk in order to help him secure the 3^rd pick?  That won’t make up for Engram’s absence.

Sorry Seth, Gronk ain't going to do it.

7.       I’m Out – Abel got his 2^nd win of the year so we’re going to reward excellent participation with a bump in the rankings.  But don’t get too cocky young Jared.  Had Brady thrown one more TD on MNF, you would’ve been awarded the Caesar for sure.  Not foreseeing Marvin Jones career-best day (luckily just missed high bench points) is understandable against his hometown Vikings.  But leaving Latavious Murray on the bench with Kamara out and starting either Jamal Williams or Jordan Howard instead, both time-share backs, is borderline inexcusable.  We will commend him that he’s been able to set a full roster each week and tight-rope the 5 QBs situation (for the most part).  Thank goodness for Darnold’s spleen and Rosen’s ineptitude. 

Wait, I have a way to get off Abel's team...

8.       If We’re Using Logic – Apparently Mitch was onto something in the offseason recommending Chris blow it all up and start from scratch. 

This times, it's Lazer's turn to receive.

Hot Take Trade Analysis

Seth gets TY Hilton, Dede Westbrook, Philip Rivers and Kyle’s 2020 3^rd rounder

Kyle gets Evan Engram, N’Keal Harry, and Derek Carr

To us, this comes down to how you value TY for Engram.  Rivers and Carr are mediocre QBs that could see their NFL lives coming to an end very soon.  But the additional value of Rivers is negated by the youth of Carr.  If Gruden, the QB whisperer, is able to work his magic with Carr, this becomes a lopsided trade in a hurry.  Dede is young and has produced decently this year.  Harry is a top-level prospect but hasn’t played yet and could have a dicey QB situation as soon as next year.  As Abel can attest, some top-level prospects are unAbel to line up to their hype.  *cough* Treadwell *cough* Doctson *cough*  Hilton is a boost to AIE’s WR corps but not sure it’s enough to offset the drop in TE Seth is going to suffer, now shuffling Everett and Cook in instead of the no-brainer Engram.  It’s mostly fair to both sides but we deem Lehman the winner.  What would you expect from a seasoned used-car salesman? 

Kyle after another successful lemon sale.

Season 7 - Week 5

Week 5 is in the books and we saw a scoring explosion hit, not seen since Seth’s wedding night, as we had 12 starters go over 30 points and 2 teams topple the 200 mark.  Will Fuller set a new single game player high with 53.7, which is higher than the speed Mitch is now allowed to drive.  But almost as impressive as some of the single player scores were this week, there were also 6 players in starting lineups that posted 1 or 0 points on the week.  That’s a more unexpectedly disappointing performance than Iowa’s offense against Michigan.   We’re only two weeks away from the midway point of the season and the completion of one round robin.  As Seth would say, it’s still early and everyone’s still in play but the teams in the bottom half had better kick it in the ass or it’s going to be a long winter.  But for now, on with the Power Rankings…

1.       Fuck It Three – As predicted in the offseason, South remains top of the class as the only team remaining at 4-1.  He’s won 4 in a row and posted over 175 in each of those matchups.  It’s probably going to take a number of injuries or a candy coma to derail his postseason hopes at this point.  The good news is that someone else finally won a weekly payout.  The bad news is that it’s looking like Tyreeeeeek will be back in his lineup soon and Diggs will probably get traded to the Pats or something.  And if these transpire with expected results, South’s national title will finally become his 2^nd most cherished trophy.  

2.       Off Suit 10s – Kyle posted the 3^rd highest total all time and it would’ve smashed the record if he would’ve put in Baby Chark, Panasonic Michel or Riley Ridley’s brother instead of TY or Fitz.  Watson and McCaffrey posted 47 points leading the way to a blowout victory over AIE, our formerly ranked #1 team.  It’s ironic that these two guys are leading the way for OS10s as both were acquired at below market value and we’re sure South and Mitch don’t regret those trades at all.  But we used to give Kyle crap for trading a bunch of stars away previously (ahem…AB and Michael Thomas for a few).  So maybe It turns out all that ridicule and a few more years of hocking steak knives and RVs have really honed Kyle’s trading skillset.  

3.       Ah It’s Early – Not much Seth was going to do this week against Lehman’s crazy day, other than console himself by the warm, sensual embrace of Chris’s sister.  He still posted a total that would’ve been good enough to beat the other 4 losing teams and remains tops in points scoring.  Amari is beginning to take on the role Gruden couldn’t envision for him in and Keenan looks as healthy as ever.  If Nuke can prove he’s not the 2^nd or 3^rd best WR on his team, Seth will be able to solidify his position in the playoffs sooner rather than later.  Boris will be proud.  

4.       Smells Low – Maybe we were a bit premature (which never happens, we swear) in touting Riley’s rebuilding as “ongoing”.  Although beating Finken this year is nothing special, he’s now won 3 of his last 4 and has posted 155+ in those 4 matchups.  This week, he rode Wilson and A A Ron Jones to his 3^rd 200 point game of all time.  And that was with a 0.0 in his Flex spot after Dorsett got hurt.  With quality QBs and some crafty trades that have netted him a plethora of young WR talent, Riley cannot be overlooked.  Unfortunately for him, neither can his nose. 

5.       Play It Backwards – Remember when Mitch was riding high after Week 3, much like his Indianola squad against those poor inner-city kids?  Sitting at 3-0 with AB and Duke in new supposedly prosperous roles with dynamic offenses.  Those were the days.  Unfortunately for him, those days are past as AB is busy crop-dusting PhDs, and Duke has been supplanted by Carlos Hyde, who we can only assume is Lazer’s replacement for HOFer Doug Baldwin.  As is any road trip with Mitch, he still managed to keep it interesting against South after Thomas went off but you can’t post two 0.0s in your lineup and expect to beat Southie Luck.  We would laugh at him for the 0.0 in the TE spot when he’s got 5 TE choices on his roster.  But a deeper examination of the facts show a combined score of 0.0 for all 5.  Good work on not leaving any points on the bench I guess.  

6.       If We’re Using Logic – Chris got a much needed victory against Abel to snap the losing streak.  Fuller’s single game high point total was a necessity as 5 other starters posted single digits, including Julio and ODBag.  He’s lucky that the Broncos knocked off the Chargers, not only for his Chiefs division hopes, but it also kept Ekeler valuable, catching 15(!) passes to go with his 3 rushing attempts.  According to reports, Mitch prompted him to insert Fuller into the lineup instead of Henry.  We’re glad to know that Chris now needs assistance in setting his lineup each week; but it’s especially bad in this case, just to beat Abel.  Maybe we should get Chris a life-alert bracelet but instead of calling an ambulance, it calls random owners in the league to advise on lineup conundrums.  

7.       I’m Out – Jared was saved from the bottom spot again based on Finken’s futility and his Week 1 victory over him.  While he topped his 2018 season victory total in Week 1, he has yet to build on this small success in dropping 4 straight.  He smartly burned Danny Dimes redshirt knowing he’s the future, although probably not this week on a short week with no weapons against the best D in the league.  At least Darnold is back after contracting mono at one of Riley’s college lesbo parties.  However, this means he’s got 5 starting QBs and has to get rid of one of them.  Unfortunately there’s absolutely zero chance that Jared puts a quality trade proposal together for a QB-needy team before the weekend (hint, hint).  

8.       Rollin’ 4 Deep – We don’t know what was more pathetic this week, Finken’s new entry on the Wall of Shame, Mike Evans highlight reel or his Husker’s offensive showing at home against Northwestern.  We’re sure it’ll get better this week against Southie…

Season 7 - Week 4

Week 4 is in the books and we’re now a quarter thru the regular NFL season.  Don’t take this for granted boys as pretty soon it’ll be playoff time, the Eagles and Chiefs will have everything locked up and the Vikings and Bears will be scouting QBs in the draft.  Your humble moderators finally found some time out of their busy days of surfing the internet and chatting with coworkers to put together another batch of lame jokes and bad observations. 

But enough about that, on with the Power Rankings…

1.       Ah It’s Early – It wasn’t pretty but Seth proved once again to be the smarter, tougher, more able Son of Den with a victory over his brother-in-law by a margin thinner than his neckbeard, but definitely not as thin as his hairline.  Needlessly dropping $85 on Wayne Gallman ended up being worth it as that was enough to push him over the edge.  Well, that and Dak’s final pass to Amari Sunday night.  That’s how Seth closes the deal.  It makes us at Power Rankings Headquarters wonder just how many Lansinks Seth’s closing skills would work on…

Seth walking around Lansink family reunion.

2.       Fuck It Three – Sometimes it’s just nice to be Southie.  He posted high points this week taking him to his 3^rd victory in a row.  Lamar is proving to be the 2^nd coming of a young $cam Newton, and the king’s ransom he paid for Chubb is finally paying dividends.  And on top of it all, he’s now won all 4 of the weekly payout prizes after his Chubb broke an 88 yard run.  And if Goff tosses for 500+ again, he’s going to win this week’s too.  Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Southie doesn’t need Luck to be Lucky.

Garrett's used to a little chubb, now he's got a man-sized one.

3.       Play It Backwards – Not unexpectedly, Mitch hit a bump in the road after cruising to a 3-0 start (or was it a small rodent? Not sure, he wasn’t paying attention).  Watkins is proving to be a Chumbawumba-level one-hit-wonder while Corey Davis might have cranked out his only top-40 hit while sitting on the bench.  Adams recovered from last week’s dud but it’s going to take a lot more than “want to” to recover from his banged up toe.  At 3-1, he’s still in the driver’s seat (unfortunately) for the playoffs but without AB and Trubortlesky in his lineup, his bench is weaker than Riley’s game with the lesbians. 

4.       Off Suit 10s – CMC continued his tear and Gurley finally showed up while Fournette paid immediate dividends in his investment.  However, Lehman’s WRs tripped over their feet as none scored over 7.5 points.  DeShaun will need to continue on his roller coaster run this week if Kyle wants to compete as he’s at 2-2 and in the middle of the pack with AIE coming to town.  Roller coaster doesn’t begin to describe his best ball team, which is 2^nd in total points but sports a 0-4 record.  Fortunately for Kyle, there’s no such thing as “who cares” territory in best ball leagues. 

Kyle's best ball strategy is kind of working.  

5.       Smells Low – Riley rode Godwin like a rented mule and still barely survived his Abel bye week.  MNF was tense as his new Boyd toy just kept up with teammate Ross to give him the victory.  He pretty much optimized his lineup too as not a single player on his bench scored double digits.  He should be good though after this week since the 49ers don’t have any more byes.  With 5 of them on his team, Riley’s has invested more in San Francisco real estate and Chris has in the Des Moines slums. 

Is Riley in Chicago now?

6.       If We’re Using Logic – It seemed like a good idea to bid $51 on Nelson Agholor.  It also seemed like a good idea to stick him in the starting lineup on Thursday since the rest of the Eagles receiving corps were banged up.  But game clock ticked to 0:00 and poor Nelson had the same next to his name with no injury qualifier.  With 4 other starters putting up single digits, Chris was flirting with 2019’s 1^st entry in the Wall of Shame.  Fortunately for him, Melvin wasn’t game ready enough to render Ekeler useless and Woods put together the game that he needed last week against Southie.  Three players combining for 5.4 points is not a great look and Lazer will have to do better next week if he wants to avoid matching Finken’s embarrassment in getting beaten by the Abel Bye Week. 

Captain Kirk has been about as effective of Lazer's lineup outside of Ekeler.

7.       Rolln’ 4 Deep – Finken saved his season by defeating Mitch as Rodgers finally showed up and Conner filled the Barkley-sized hole in his lineup.  He chose the wrong rookie WR’s redshirt to burn but luckily he’s got 4 more to rotate into that spot.  He’s still got time to get back into playoff contention as Riley’s on deck this week.  But if he’s rollin’ 4 deep in the loss column by Week 5, it might be time to start positioning himself for next year’s generational RB. 

Finken's almost back in the race.

I’m Out – Jared should’ve won this matchup against Riley with Andrews in the TE spot instead of Rudolph or Alshon over Ross.  Jordan Howard put up 32.5 on the bench but no one saw that coming so he gets a pass on that.  But these choices doomed him and brought about his 3^rd loss in a row as he takes his usual spot at the bottom of the rankings.  May we suggest a name change to break the karma?  Something like “Set the bidder” or “Lead the ace” or “Kyle, what in the hell were you thinking?”…the helpful reminders might also improve his pitch game.

At least Stafford's held up his end of the bargin. 

Season 7 - Week 3

Week 3 is in the books and your humble moderators didn’t have a lot of time this week so we’re just going to bounce around with a few notes and observations.  We’ll try and get to a few for every team which should be easier now that we can use the two IR spots for them as well. 

Mitch stands alone as the last remaining unbeaten team but he’s been real close to losing 2 of his 3 games already.  He’s looking to make only his 3^rd playoff run in the last 7 years but Duke Johnson is not who Houston thought he was, Miles Sanders is fumbling his chance away and now he’s losing AB (possibly forever).  The lucky thing is he gets an absolute cakewalk this week against by far the worst team in the league missing its best player.  Basically just pencil him in at 4-0. J

Mitch may be 3-0 but Kyle’s only 1.6 points in Week 2 away from holding that title.  It helps when you’ve faced by far the fewest points in the league so far.  The trade with Riley, giving up 2 high-potential young WRs, puts him even further into win-now mode by adding 2 high potential but injury-prone RBs to his roster.  We’re positive that trade will age well. 

Seth has been the true powerhouse so far this year with a significant points lead on the rest of us.  Now he’s poised to get Melvin Gordon back next week which means he might regret dropping most of his FAAB budget on the future HOFer Wayne Gallman.  He’s looking like the #1 title contender right now as long as his starters stay healthy and his QBs keep doing what they’re doing. 

And Seth’s gain is Lazer’s loss as the main bright spot in his lineup, Ekeler, now only has 1 more week of usefulness.  Amazingly, Chris has scored between 175-178 each week and it’s tough to be that regular at his age.  His trades for Hunt and Williams continue to haunt him as Henry and Ingram are about to be his only useable RBs.  He’s just trying to hold on as the bye’s start. 

Riley and Abel are about where we figured they’d be, rebuilding but improving.  Abel’s already crushed his win total from last year and Riley’s now got more young wide receivers than a college bar after a sorority party.  Both should miss the playoffs but pick off a few people here and there. 

And finally, as it turns out, the stat-correction karma is catching up with Finken and Abel’s Week 1 victory over the defending champ wasn’t so impressive after all.  The blame falls on many places but 2 months without Saquon might turn Finken into a Lehman-style used car fire sale.  Reached for comment on his horrific start to the year, Finken simply stated “don’t care, still the Champ…”

Season 7 - Week 1

Season 7 is now underway.  Let’s recap some changes.  A dramatic change removing K and Ds along with adding another WR and RB spot was ratified and implemented.  This made it more important to have a deeper roster at each of these positions, especially once byes and injuries start to take their toll.  It should make for make for more scoring as there’s a higher chance of big games from those position rather than K or D.  Additionally, it will help alleviate the burden of Riley having to decide among his WRs which are going to reach double digits each week.  Seth posted the highest point total ever in this first week with 245.92, beating South’s old record of 240.3.  However, the average scoring this week (157.70) was right on par with last year’s scoring average (158.36).  Now we’ll see how this changes throughout the year, but Riley said his math education taught him that this is a relevant statistical sample and should be taken a gospel. 

Finken is our reigning champ after defeating Lansink using an unorthodox move, the stat-correction (remember that?) making sure Chris didn’t win his 9^th title in the 8 years of this league.  He then moved on to hand South another silver medal finish and fueling the Tonya Harding rage burning deep in his candy-filled stomach.  Let’s take a moment to recognize Finken’s brilliance and show that all that hard work of falling into 2 of the best RBs of the past decade can make dreams come true.  (Stop reading and take a moment)  We’ve now had 5 different leagues champions with South, Abel and Riley still looking to add their name to the trophy.  Let’s see how Week 1 went and get on with the rankings…

 

Football's back baby!

1.       I’m Out – Well, they say that to be the best, you have to beat the best…and that’s exactly what Abel did.  Taking down our reigning champ in Week 1 is enough to put Jared in the top spot in our very scientific ranking formula.  He might not be projected to win it all this year, or make the playoffs, or be in the top half of scoring, or even be favored often/ever, but he’s got enough guys to be dangerous especially if Andrews, Jeffrey, DK and Ross can continue a hot start...and if his opponent misses his projection by 60+ points.   He’s wisely resisted the urge from everyone else to snipe his best players for future picks and hopes to make some noise this season.  Unfortunately his loud cheer to start might turn into a whoopee-cushion sound real quick.

Jared's rocking out to a winning record this year.

2.       Ah It’s Early – As he is at home, Seth was the true stud of the weekend.  Posting a new benchmark for high points, Seth proved he didn’t even need to know when waivers ran.  Not having Melvin Gordon was an afterthought as 8 of his starters topped 22 points.  It could’ve been significantly better too if he would’ve started his day-late waiver claim of DeSean Jackson posting 35.4 on his bench.  That sort of asset mismanagement is likely what caused the great air conditioning debacle of 2014.

All time points record!!!

3.       Play It Backwards – Mitch managed to steer his team to victory but it was a little dicey (as usual with him at the wheel).  He was missing AB for Week 1 but we’re guessing that he’d rather sit him one week and get him on the Pats rather than have Derek Carr throwing him ducks all season.  Watkins was the key to victory posting 46.8 points, who he replaced Brown with when the craziness began.  I’m sure Lansink took it real well watching his Chiefs destroy the Jags by tossing every TD Sammy’s way.  With Hill out, Watkins becomes a top 8 WR and the Brady-Brown stack is quickly making Mitch a top contender for his first playoff run in a few years.  We’ll see if the rumble strips can keep Mitch on the road to the title. 

Whew, made it to 1-0 in one piece.

4.       Off Suit 10s – Kyle got off to a solid start against Riley thanks to McCaffrey slicing thru the Rams D like they were the Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl.  He should be a bit concerned though after seeing Gurley is apparently in a 3-way in the Rams backfield, and not the kind that involves a blindfold and drunk college girls.   Trading for Sony might backfire with all the scoring going to the Pats new WR toys.  The good news is that it appears he’s got decent WRs now, especially on the bench since most each of them outscored all of his starting WRs, and that probably would’ve held full PPR or not.   He’ll need to make better coaching decisions going forward as he won’t be pitted against the Special Olympian of fantasy football every week.

Man, I could've been in Kyle starting lineup rather than Mitch's bench.

5.       If We’re Using Logic – Lansink put up a valiant effort by putting up a total that would’ve beat anyone outside of his opponent or his far-superior brother-in-law.  This seems fitting since last year he kept emerging victorious in low scoring games he had no business winning.  Lansink does get some hardware this weekend though, which comes in the form of the Ceasar Award for poor manager of the week.  All offseason, he’s been talking up Derrick Henry as his almost-league-winner last year (but not really, #StatCorrection).  However come Week 1, he benches him in favor of a low-volume WR who he thinks will become the next Julio (spoiler alert, he won’t).  This move would’ve helped him post almost 200 and beat Mitch handily.  In more not-so-great news, no other non-QB bench players scored double digits.  That sort of depth doesn’t bode well in the event of the aforementioned injury bug hitting.

Not exactly Belichick-level of roster management here folks.

6.       Fuck It Three – The season could’ve started much better for the presumptive favorite going into the season.  First Luck retires out of the blue and leaves him with no QB depth.  His Flash Gordon stock seemed at an all-time high until the Pats sign one of the few WRs more talented (and insane) than he is.  Then he trades for Foles who promptly gets injured in the 1^st quarter of the opening game.  A short while later in the same game, Tyreeeeeek gets a karma-suspension from the injury gods for the foreseeable future.   And then the rest of his roster craps the bed and leaves him 0-1 after Seth takes his scoring record.  At least he’s got FAAB left to fill the holes on his roster…

No Luck, Foles or Tyreek...Southy luck will kick in regardless.

7.       Rollin’ 4 Deep – Like his finals opponent, the Stat-Correction Champ is not off to a great title defense.  Zeke is signed so that is good but if Baker isn’t his heir-apparent to Brees and Winston can’t get the ball to Evans and the Juice, he could be in season-long trouble.  Finken will tell himself that it was just a week of bad matchups and everything will turn around next time, just the way it did with Solich….and  Callahan….and Pelini….and Riley….and Frost….

Keep punting Finken.

8. Smells Low – Riley, take solace in the fact that you’re out having experiences and banging chicks in which we could only dream about….because your fantasy team is garbage.

Dynasty Preview 209

Chris is usually in charge of the summer projections and draft recap but he's currently too busy reliving his college days during this summer, although this time it's without all of the freedom, bar time, random hook-ups and general happiness.  So we figured we'd take a stab at the “way too early” rankings, predictions, and draft grades….

Rank 2018 Prediction 2018 Actual Finish
#8        I’m Out                          I’m Out
#7        Smells Low                   Smells Low
#6        Ah It’s Early                  Ah It’s Early
#5        If We’re Using Logic Play It Backwards
#4        Rollin’ 4 Deep               If We’re Using Logic
#3        Off Suit 10s                   Off Suit 10s
#2        Fuck It Three                 Fuck It Three
#1        Play It Backwards         Rollin’ 4 Deep

Review – Verbatim from last year’s projections: “Finken shared Seth’s 2015 fate; will he share Seth’s 2016 glory with a Championship this season. Spoiler Alert:  He won’t.”

#StatCorrectionChamp

Overall, Chris did pretty well on his projections, so we have to give him props.  He was especially correct predicting that his own team would miss the playoffs as he should have instead of finishing with the best record and the 6th highest point total.  This was all made well in the world when the NFL made the right call and reversed to egregious fumble call against Zeke and propelled Finken to his first title.  Chris undervalued how good Lehman’s team would perform, dominating the points scored and posting 5 games +200 points.  However, he correctly saw how Southy would once again finish as a bridesmaid.

Looking forward – On the other hand, South had a huge victory after spending millions in taxpayer money to lobby against kickers and defenses.  They were voted out like Cesaer at card night and a 2nd WR and RB slot were added which adds a new dimension, especially as the season wears on and byes and injuries start to happen.

Another seismic shift to our league was adding 3 redshirt spots, allowing people to squirrel-away 3 additional rookies for the future.  It also makes the later round draft picks a bit more valuable as they now might not just be waiver wire fodder starting week 1.  But enough of this, you all wanted some baseless projection and draft grade.  Ask....

2019 Projections

#8 - I’m Out -

Strengths – Baby steps.  Rome was not built in a day and nor will Abel’s roster be.  After flipping Chubb for some decent pieces and strong draft capital, Abel has a decent starting lineup that should be competitive most weekends.  Landry, Lockett, Jeffrey and Kirk should get him by this year and the 1.01 pick Jacobs should be an immediate workhorse.  Winston, Stafford and Darnold give him competent starters at QB as well.

Weaknesses – Star power.  While the roster builds, Jared doesn’t have that cornerstone yet.  But with two 1st rounders in a strong 2020 draft class, if he can sell the right pieces thru this season and acquire more draft capital or young talent, we could see a formidable roster in the near future.

Wild Cards – Howard, Harris, Murray and Ballage all have a clear path to very productive roles if things break right.  A Kamara/Sony/Sanders injury here or there, Abel’s RB depth all of a sudden looks pretty good for this year.  Also, FAAB.  Always FAAB, and if Jared starts to use it, watch out.

Prediction – Tossing away this season again and building young depth and future assets is probably his best plan for this year.

#7 - Smells Low -

Strengths – Nose Roster size.  Riley sniffed out his issues early and embraced rebuild mode by trading away numerous assets to acquire picks and young players.  The result was a ton of draft picks and 39 guys sitting on his roster currently.  His core 3 QBs should be solid for years to come and he’s got the best young TE in the game.  He also has a lot of solid options at RB, especially after opting for David Montgomery instead of N’Keal Harry at the 2nd pick.

Weaknesses – Wrestling…but also WRs.  Having only one WR that you could call a WR2 at best is not an ideal spot to be in.  Drafting 6 rookie WRs will probably help in the long run but filling those 2 WR spots each week this season will be dicier than picking up women Blazing Saddles. 

Wild Cards – As mentioned, the RBs are solid but all have question marks.  Aaron Jones seems like a breakout candidate but hasn’t been fully trusted yet.  Fournette seems to be on his way out of Jacksonville and his college teammate Guice hasn’t played a down in the NFL yet.  Freeman is solid but probably at the end of his career.  Ronald Jones is a warm body in a good offense but will probably be replaced in next year’s draft.   

Prediction – Riley’s team is much improved but isn’t quite ready to smell a playoff push.

The secret to Riley's success.

#6 - Off Suit 10’s -

Strengths – Gurley and CMC.  Kyle laid waste to the league most of last year but fell short in the playoffs once Gurley mysteriously stopped scoring 4 TDs per game.  Even if Gurley is 75% of what he was, pairing that with McCaffrey gives him a formidable backfield.  Sony Michael provides some insurance but his production is tenuous with his injury problems and Pats usage of their RBs.

Weaknesses – Not accounting for Mitch.  All Kyle wanted was to move up and draft Kyler Murray and he made that widely known.  He thought he had outfoxed Finken but failed to account for Mitch’s terrible QB depth.  If $cam Newton can’t get his shoulder right before the season, he’ll be relying on Old Man Rivers and Mariota to hold his 2nd QB spot.

Wild Cards – Kyle...Kyle is the wild card.  He’s made by far the most trades in the league and probably has at least 10 more in him before this season is done.  Some he’s come out ahead like acquiring CMC or TY (yes Kyle, we saw you bragging on Twitter) but others leave us scratching our heads like M Thomas, AB, OBJ….and on and on.  He’d better win now since his best pick in the next two drafts is a single 3rd rounder.

Prediction – Gurley is not himself, Sony loses his spot to Harris eventually and Kyle starts to trade off assets to rebuild his lack of any future draft capital and hit his trade quota for set of steak knives.

Kyle started last season with so much promise.

#5 - Play It Backwards-

Strengths – Catchers of the football.  Even if AB and Green are aging, Mitch is still rolling out 4 of the best WRs in the league so that’ll be an advantage most weeks.  Watkins could also finally pay off if Hill is suspended for any amount of time but we’re sure a soft-tissue injury will pop up as usual.

Weaknesses – Runners of the football.  Kamara is a stud and could be even better with Ingram leaving town.  However, Mitch’s RB depth is suspect at best with a bunch of 3rd down backs and a rookie that missed OTAs and whose team is usually in a 4-way timeshare.  That 2nd RB spot could be a black hole deeper into the season.  Also, everyone should’ve seen him drafting Murray.  For God’s sakes, his QBs were a 56 year old Tom Brady, Mariota and Mitchell TruBortlesky.

Wild Cards – Mitch’s 2 first round picks could sink or elevate his roster this year.  If Murray is Baker with wheels and the Iggles make Sanders a workhorse in a great offense, then PIB is a for sure playoff team.  If Kyler gets broken in half and Sanders never gets a full workload, then he’ll be right where his Indianola squad typically is.

Prediction – Kyler is great for a bit but misses significant time and Mitch just barely misses the playoffs.

Mitch was so close he could touch it.

#4 - If We’re Using Logic -

Strengths – Irritating Mitch.  Chris still has 2 of the best week-to-week WRs out there and he’s hoping Mike Williams takes the next step into that rarefied air.  He’s also done a good job of maneuvering himself into RB depth after the trade for Hunt backfired.  The moves are smart as he’s in win-now mode with Julio aging and Ingram, Damien Williams, Hyde and Yeldon essentially 1 year options at best.  His QBs are also solid although unspectacular, much like his dance moves and cribbage prowess.

Weaknesses – Getting old.  Gronk retiring is going to hurt although he’s had plenty of practice of playing without Gronk because of late-season injuries.  Ebron is old already and due for some regression with more receiving options in Indy and Doyle back healthy.  He could be at quite a disadvantage most weeks from a TE standpoint.  It has to be disappointing because if we knew anything about Chris in college, he prided himself in keeping an eye on the male tight end.

Wild Cards – Chris could benefit this year the way Conner helped Finken last year.  If Gordon continues to hold out, that could be huge for Austin Ekeler during the season.  And if DJ, Ingram or D Williams gets worn down, Edmonds, J Hill and Hyde could do the same respectively.  Having the main backups to Seth’s starting RBs could get him back in as #1 son in Den’s eyes.

Prediction – Chris gets into the playoffs and attempts to win his 8th title in the past 6 years.

Mitch is doing this to Lazer within the next 14 months, either on purpose or on accident.

#3 - Ah, It’s Early -

Strengths – Filling holes.  Seth has great top end talent to fill a starting lineup.  His starters include 3 of the top 10 WRs, 2 top RBs, a great TE and the QB who just posted the best season in fantasy history.  Even if Mahomes is due for some regression, as long as these guys are healthy, he should be contending for his 2nd title.

Weaknesses – Depth, but not according to Cara.  However, outside of those 7 players, there’s a lot of question marks in his depth.  The bottom half of his WRs are pretty sketchy and his other RBs are backups or in timeshares at best.  So once byes kick in or there’s a few injuries, his choices could get thinner than his hairline.  He didn’t have much draft capital this year so he’ll need Harry to pan out in a big way going forward.  He also had better hope Engram keeps improving or he’s going to really regret trading away the opportunity to grab Hockenson after he fell into his lap.

Wild Cards – DJ and the Cardinals sucking last year killed his season.  That should change but relying on a failed Big 12 coach in the NFL is like relying on Mitch to drive you somewhere safely.  You know it'll be a fun ride, but you hope he keeps it together long enough to get you there.  And if Gordon sticks to his holdout and the Chargers are smart and hold firm, he could experience South’s pain from Bell last year.

Prediction – Gordon reports, DJ is a stud and Dak takes a big step forward solidifying Seth’s place in the playoffs.

Seth's back in contention.

#2 - Rollin 4 Deep  -

Strengths – Fantasy Luck.  Falling into 2 of the best RB dynasty assets has solidified Finken into a perennial contender.  And even if Conner doesn’t replicate what he did last year, he should be a solid starter for the next few years until the Steelers decide they don’t want to pay him either.  Rodgers, Brees and Mayfield give him 3 good options each week at QB and OJ should murder at the TE spot in Arian’s offense.

Weaknesses – Outside of Evans, his WRs are a bunch of hit-and-miss young guys and rookies.  He needs Robinson to be more consistent another year removed from his surgery and a few of the young guys to step up or he’s going to be rolling a 6-sided dice each week for guidance on who to start at his other WR spots.

Wild Cards – Tevin Coleman and Royce Freeman are in convoluted timeshares but if one or both grabs the spot, look out.  Also, this is probably Devante Parker’s year...for real this time.

Prediction – The #StatCorrectionChamp makes a deep playoff run again but ultimately falls short to finally...

Finken celebrating his title all year long.

#1 - Fuck It Three -

Strengths – RBs and life in general.  Garrett loves him some RBs and proved it again this year.  After he gave up most of his draft to get Chubb, he traded Sony away in order to draft Gurley’s potential replacement.  He’s got 6 potential top-line starting RBs and should be favored most weeks because of this.  Kelce should also be an advantage every week even with Hill back in the lineup.

Weaknesses – Fantasy titles.  Tyreeeeek avoided a suspension and Juju steps into AB’s very large shoes so he’s off to a good start.  Diggs and Kupp should be solid but someone else has to step up within his WRs.  As mentioned before, the good thing is that South may only have to start 2 of these WRs each week based on his RB depth.

Wild Cards – Garrett takes another spin on the Josh Gordon merry-go-round.  And if Gurley doesn’t hold up and Henderson does take his spot, well he might do to the league what he did to Riley on draft night.

Prediction – South finally breaks his own glass ceiling and hangs the trophy on his wall.  The only question is which of the 7 bedrooms does he choose?  Or should he buy a guest house just for the trophy?

South's time is just about to take off.

Draft Grades

I’m Out - B- It was a no-brainer to take Jacobs at 1.1.  I question a bit the thought of trading out of 1.5 instead of taking Sanders/Harry/whoever because he has to wait until 2021 for it to really pay off but he ended up with a few other decent assets.  Metcalf is a swing-for-the-fences pick and makes sense.  Harris, Singletary and Snell could all have a role as soon as late this year.  Daniel Jones got booed but he’s going to get every chance to be the QB in NY once they dispose of Eli’s corpse.

Smells Low - C- Riley won’t have a problem filling his 3 redshirt spots after drafting 11 players.  Was surprised he didn’t grab Harry, by far the best WR when that’s what he needed.  Montgomery solidifies his RB depth and Hollywood could be decent but is risky and we probably would’ve went safer with that pick.  JJAW and Butler are good down-the-road picks.  Haskins is unnecessary on his roster and most of the other picks will probably be on the final roster cut bubble.  Would’ve expected Riley to package a few of these picks to trade up for better prospects.

Play It Backwards - A+ Mitch threw everyone off by taking Murray and then trading back up to grab Sanders as well.  If it works, then he’s set for a while with those two.  Isabella is also a great upside pick in a high potential offense.  Like the potential of Irv Smith and Dexter Williams next year and Lock could be a thing if Flacco shows he isn’t elite.  The only question was Tony Pollard, which was a good pick but probably 2 rounds too early.

Ah, It’s Early - C- Seth had the fewest draft picks taken at 4 after trading back or out a couple of times.  Harry fell into his lap, which was probably very unexpected.  All 4 picks were WRs, 2 of which were undrafted free agents.  Jennings has good upside as no one in Seattle is locked in outside of Lockett.  Seth’s best haul was probably all of Abel’s picks he got for next year.

If We’re Using Logic - B Chris needed to leave the draft with a few RBs and a TE and he accomplished that.  He didn’t have many picks thanks to the Hunt trade but the Justice Hill and Mattison picks have good potential, as does Sternberger.  Mike Davis could also have a good role if Montgomery busts.  Kumerow and Pringle are the ultimate dart throws.

Off Suit 10’s - C After missing out on Kyler, Lehman traded back from 1.5 for Ridley and Mariota which isn’t a bad haul for his roster needs.  He didn’t really need Fant at 2.3 but it was a homer pick.  McLaurin and Boykin have good upside but are in bad offenses.  Love needs to prove he’s healthier than Guice before he should be counted on for anything.  Renfrow will surely get cut within a year or two and end up on the Pats and win 5 Super Bowls there.

F’ It Three - A If anyone was surprised that Garrett took a RB first, then you haven’t been paying attention.  Perfect upside pick since he won’t need him this year and could easily trade someone else if he hits.  Hockenson was by far the best value as Kelce isn’t getting younger.  And did you hear, Josh Gordon was playing catch with Tom Brady?!?!

Rollin 4 Deep - C+ Finken drafted 4 of the top 8 WRs in the first few rounds and 5 overall.  Inside sources say this wasn’t truly his plan but that he went for value at each pick.  At least a few of them should pan out decently although it’ll take a year or two.  Armstead has good potential in case Fournette wears out his welcome in Jax.  Malcolm Brown and Matt LaCosse are Hail Mary’s that’ll probably get cut.

We are less than 2 months away gentlemen.